Make no mistake, Kyler Murray will be the Vikings’ starting QB. So what happens with J.J. McCarthy?

Almost exactly one year ago — March 13, 2025 — Daniel Jones was signed by the Indianapolis Colts to “compete” with Anthony Richardson Sr. for the team’s starting quarterback spot. And from the moment pen touched Jones’ one-year contract, it had the odor of a setup.

It was as if the Colts’ brain trust was saying what it needed to say to prop up a faux competition. It seemed only a matter of time before the starting job was in Jones’ capable veteran hands, leaving Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard to make an attempt at conjuring whatever trade market he could for the completely unrealized ceiling of Richardson’s talent. Flash forward 12 months and that’s precisely where the Colts are parked, having extended Jones for two more seasons and $88 million, while simultaneously opening up for trade calls on Richardson.

Advertisement

This is the scenario I think about when I look at the crossroads created by the Minnesota Vikings, who signed veteran quarterback Kyler Murray to a one-year deal Thursday, while effectively sending a message to 2024 first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy that the starting job in 2026 will very likely not be his.

Sure, the Vikings will play out the “competition” facade for a while. Maybe even all the way through training camp, as the Colts did with Jones and Richardson last summer. And you’ll hear some remixed-but-repetitive version of what head coach Kevin O’Connell said in January about McCarthy’s need to be pushed and developed.

“I absolutely want a competitive situation,” O’Connell said during his season-ending news conference. “What that looks like with the reps, I think it’s all predicated on — obviously, J.J. is going to be a major, major emphasis for our staff and our team and me personally. We’ll figure out what that looks like as we navigate, you know, the early part of this offseason when it comes to managing the roster, and I know Kwesi and his staff will do a great job of that.”

[Draft your Yahoo Fantasy Baseball team for the 2026 MLB Season]

The “Kwesi” whom O’Connell referred to is former general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who was fired 17 days after that remark. That should tell you how quickly confident proclamations can expire inside the Vikings these days. Keep that that in mind the next time you hear O’Connell or anyone else in Minnesota’s franchise talk with conviction about McCarthy’s future in their quarterback room.

Advertisement

I say that because I’m certain of two things right now: That Kyler Murray was signed to eventually take the starting QB job for the 2026 season; and that McCarthy has 12 months to do whatever he can to keep from becoming the next Anthony Richardson Sr. — a young backup quarterback with an unrealized ceiling whose trade availability isn’t exactly lighting up the league’s phone lines.

Regardless of what the Vikings may say publicly, league sources at the NFL scouting combine made it clear Minnesota wasn’t just looking for a veteran capable of coming in and pushing McCarthy. Instead, the situation was described as the Vikings looking for a realistic option to potentially supplant McCarthy permanently if he wasn’t able to take major strides in 2026. Part of that approach, sources said, was how McCarthy struggled with decision making and processing in his 10 starts, as well as some very real staff frustrations about how his health has held up over the first two seasons of his career — including a deflating five-game stretch he missed with a high-ankle sprain last season.

The situation was irritating enough that it was clear from sources that Minnesota’s decision makers were not going to put themselves into a situation of having to count on McCarthy turning a corner this offseason. Instead, it was clear the Vikings were looking for a veteran option — and Kyler Murray’s name resonated as the one-year “prove it” option who had enough talent to take the starting job and play well enough to make him a viable starter beyond 2026.

Advertisement

So where does this leave McCarthy now that Murray is in the fold? There are a handful of scenarios in front of him. Among them:

Convince the Vikings that Murray isn’t the best quarterback on the roster

Murray did not sign in Minnesota to end up as McCarthy’s backup. And the Vikings would not have done a deal with him if they thought that was all he’s capable of doing. So in that respect, Murray has a major leg up — he believes he can be the Vikings’ starter and the Minnesota brass believes it, too. That doesn’t mean McCarthy can’t change some minds in the building. It’s going to take McCarthy having the best offseason of his career. That means showing a mastery of O’Connell’s offense, pushing himself to become physically stronger over the next several months, working to rebuild confidence with teammates in the locker room, and perhaps most important, challenging Murray for the QB1 job in every single way and opportunity that is at hand.

If this isn’t going to be a true open quarterback competition, McCarthy is going to have to find a way to open it. Quarterbacks can absolutely do this. I went through San Francisco 49ers training camp in the summer of 2023 and witnessed a portion of Sam Darnold taking the 49ers’ backup spot away from Trey Lance and then rebooting his career.

Advertisement

For McCarthy, it’s going to mean winning every rep he can in practice and showcasing everything he can in whatever preseason action he gets.

Bide his time and hope for an opening during the season

Even if McCarthy ultimately loses out to Murray, it’s a long NFL season and opportunities can arise that can change a career. When Baker Mayfield fell out of favor with the Carolina Panthers and was traded midseason to the Los Angeles Rams in 2022 — marking Mayfield’s third NFL team in less than a year — he used a brief window of only five starts with Sean McVay to showcase that he deserved another shot at a starting job that most believed he’d never get. The next season he went to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a one-year deal to compete for a starting job and it resurrected his career.

Advertisement

It’s worth noting that Murray has missed starts due to injury in four of his past five seasons. If that happens in Minnesota, it’s incumbent upon McCarthy to make his ability to step in count.

Ride out 2026 and hope for something to change between Murray and the Vikings after the season

Murray’s one-year deal with the Vikings includes a no-tag clause — that means if he plays well for Minnesota, he’ll have another unencumbered free agency in front of him. There’s a chance Murray plays poorly and is written out of the Vikings’ plans. There’s also a chance Murray plays well and decides to test free agency and writes Minnesota out of his future plans.

Advertisement

Without a horizon beyond 2026 secured, the reality is Murray is still a bridge quarterback for the Vikings. A bridge to where? A bridge to his own extension next offseason? A bridge to the Vikings being convinced to again swing back to McCarthy in 2027? Or a bridge for the Vikings to choose neither player and go a different route altogether in 2027, which could include dipping into what is expected to be a deep and talented quarterback class in the 2027 NFL Draft. This could end up going in all directions.

Compete for the starting QB job, then request a fresh start if Minnesota chooses Murray

The worst option is a request for a fresh start, but that happens. Jones took the starting job from Richardson in Indianapolis, and now Richardson is looking for a trade and a fresh start elsewhere. Sometimes a change of scenery — or multiple changes — eventually jumpstarts a career (See: Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield). Other times it amounts to nothing but being relegated as nothing more than a career backup (See: Trey Lance). And still other times, it at least draws a player into a longer-view conversation for future consideration (See: Mac Jones’ current situation as the 49ers’ backup).

McCarthy has fallen out of favor with some people in Minnesota’s building. He’s lost some element of trust and confidence. If he can’t win that back universally, it’s going to be hard for him to ever get another fair shake inside the franchise. That happened with Mayfield when he was with the Cleveland Browns. It happened with Darnold with the New York Jets. And it happened to both players when they were with the Panthers. The upside is the league is filled with teams that are always looking to add talent at QB. Even if it’s at No. 2 on the depth chart.

Advertisement

Lest any of us forget, McCarthy’s head coach at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh, is the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. While it’s beyond the realm of possibility of ever hoping to replace Justin Herbert with the Chargers, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility of landing as Herbert’s backup in 2027 and rebuilding a career from there. All it takes is showing the ability to be worthy of developing and then taking advantage of some small openings when they come, always keeping in mind that you never know when someone from a staff is going to catch on elsewhere as a head coach or general manager and need a quarterback who they believe they can count on.

If you don’t believe that can happen, then you haven’t been paying attention to Malik Willis the past few months.