Magomed Umalatov vs Shamil Musaev

For a long time Magomed Umalatov reigned as the uncrowned PFL champ, the theoretical champ, but now that he is finally in a championship bout he has an opponent who is more than a two-to-one favorite to beat him.

Hailing from the North Caucasus, not Dagestan, Umalatov beat everyone the promotion put in front of him but never reached the championships – or even the playoffs – through three seasons with the PFL. In 2021 he was not in the season proper, ‘22 it was visa issues, and ‘23 an injury kept him out.

As a result, many anointed him as the next to take the crown if only he could avoid external barriers. And here he is, standing at the threshold.

However, his upcoming opponent has gone from strength to strength while Umalatov underperformed against Neiman Gracie in the semi-finals, being unable to finish the grandson of BJJ royalty despite promising to do so in the first round.

Gracie has rounded out his MMA game somewhat but the fight seemed a layup of a stylistic matchup for the ‘Prince’ Umalatov, who has a strong wrestling background, of course, but is also somewhat of a knockout artist; he has a 65% KO rate over his seventeen loss-less fights, as much with strikes as with ground and pound.

Cardio has also proven to be somewhat of an issue for Umalatov, as is strength of schedule. His best win is either Andrey Koreshkov or Dilano Taylor, who are good fighters, just not really in the same realm as Shamil Musaev resides in right now.

Another undefeated Russian, Musaev remained largely unknown to Western fans until he made a statement in his PFL debut by stopping former Bellator interim welterweight champion Logan Storley in the early second round after pounding the wrestler from pillar to post in the first.

As a Sanda practitioner, Shamil Musaev won gold at the 2012 Junior Wushu World Championships for Russia before switching over to MMA, where he has scored knockouts of every variety – spinning back kick, crucifix and ground, head kick, spinning backfist, left hook – as well as a few submission wins.

His natural born Russian wrestling ability shone through as he fought his way through Russia’s regional scene once while being a striking specialist and is now coming off of two straight wins against the (formerly) undefeated Murad Ramazanov, the last Dagestani wrestling sensation that people were convinced would be world champion.

For the first time in professional MMA he will face a striker close to his own level in Umalatov, yet I believe he is up to the occasion, having shown the process and variety that Magomed has not, as well as being unwavering late in hard fights.

During the same event that Umalatov dropped the third round to Neiman Gracie according to two judges, Musaev dominated Ramazanov for three rounds. MMA math does not work, it’s true, but they are similar archetypes and Ramazanov is the better version,  being in his prime while Gracie is 35. 

I do think this is a close fight on paper, but Shamil Musaev should have the tools to edge past Magomed Umalatov, especially if Umalatov fades down the stretch again.