A win over Florida helped LSU get a woebegone season back on track last season, as the Gators used their 27-16 victory to spark a four-game winning streak to end the 2024 campaign. Florida will be hoping for another season-shifting result on Saturday night as it travels to face the No. 3 Tigers.
A stunning Week 2 home loss to South Florida quickly raised the temperature on fourth-year Gators coach Billy Napier and elevated the stakes for this SEC opener. An upset road win over a top-three opponent is exactly what Napier needs to salvage his team’s uneven start.
The good news for Florida is that the No. 3 Tigers looked vulnerable in an uninspiring 23-7 Week 2 win over Louisiana Tech. LSU’s sloppy effort drew the ire of coach Brian Kelly, who is facing Year 4 pressure of his own. This is the highest LSU has been ranked since 2019, when it marched to the national title with a 15-0 record behind the play of Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.
With a star quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier and a defense that shined in a marquee Week 1 win at Clemson, LSU appears to have the ingredients necessary to compete for SEC and national championships. However, beating the Gators at home is a must if those aspirations are going to be practical. After all, the Tigers don’t break through and reach the College Football Playoff this season under Kelly, when will they?
LSU vs. Florida: Need to know
Explosive gear missing: LSU’s defense has looked much better through two games under second-year coordinator Blake Baker. The Tigers were especially strong in the second half of their Week 1 win at Clemson, pitching a shutout and eliminating Clemson’s run game. However, LSU’s offense is still searching for the explosive gear that it was expected to have in 2025. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier still has the nation’s best Heisman odds, and the Tigers will need him to be a star at some point — perhaps even against Florida — if they are going to reach their potential.
Gambling required: Florida’s last road win over a top-three foe came in 1996 when Steve Spurrier’s Gators beat No. 2 Tennessee, which was led by Peyton Manning. UF’s last road win over a top-five team came at No. 4 LSU in 2009. Visiting LSU at night is especially perilous, and the Gators will likely have to take some chances if they want to earn a breakthrough victory. Florida played it safe on fourth downs in its loss to South Florida and paid the price in the end. Through two games, the Gators have attempted just one fourth down conversion, which ties them for 121st nationally. If there’s ever a time to take some gambles, this is it.
Weird history: Interesting and/or prolific things tend to happen when these teams play. LSU more than doubled up Florida in time of possession last season but managed to lose. In 2022 and 2023 the series belonged to LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who accounted for 11 touchdowns in two victories. In 2021, Tigers’ running back Tyrion Davis-Price racked up a school-record 287 yards on the ground. Famously, the 2020 outcome was decided largely by a cleat-throwing incident that helped LSU get in position for a game-winning field goal. You just never know what’s going to happen when LSU and Florida play.
How to watch LSU vs. Florida live
Date: Saturday, Sept. 13 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Tiger Stadium — Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (Start watching, save $20!)
LSU vs. Florida prediction, picks
Florida is limping in after a loss to South Florida, but the defeat was about poor game management, lapses in discipline and substandard execution. The Gators have plenty of talent, and it’s way too soon to put them on quit watch. LSU’s offense is still finding its way and has yet to illustrate the explosive gear that will likely be required to pull away in SEC games. LSU should win, but Florida’s defense can keep it close. Pick: Florida +7.5
SportsLine’s proven computer model has simulated every Week 3 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see all the picks, all from the model that is 31-19 since the beginning of last season on top-rated money-line and over/under picks.
Read the full article here