The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to host the Dallas Stars in their final home game of the regular season on Monday, but they wake up to a favourable out-of-town result. They currently have a 32-34-14 record, which puts them in a precarious but potentially advantageous position for the draft lottery.
The Calgary Flames defeated the Utah Mammoth 4-1 on Sunday to pick up another two points in the standings and move into the fourth-worst spot in the NHL. With 75 points in 80 games (33-38-9), they have an identical record to the third-worst New York Rangers, but the Flames moved ahead thanks to having more regulation wins, the first tiebreaker in the NHL. That means the Leafs are now just three points away from both clubs.
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If both of those teams can pick up three out of four or more points in their last two games, and the Leafs earn zero or one point in their final two games, Toronto could finish as low as the third-worst team in the NHL. That is significant because finishing with the third-worst record would guarantee that the Leafs retain their 2026 NHL Draft pick. Under lottery rules, they would not be able to finish any lower than fifth for the draft set for May 5.
The Maple Leafs traded their 2026 NHL Draft pick on a conditional basis, along with Fraser Minten, to the Boston Bruins in exchange for veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo. The Leafs will retain their pick and give up a future unconditional first-rounder instead if they finish with a top-five selection. While finishing with the fourth or fifth-worst record does not guarantee they keep the pick, finishing third-worst would.
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The Rangers visit the Florida Panthers on Monday. Meanwhile, Toronto’s games are certainly must-lose; if the Leafs were to win both of their remaining games, they could conceivably move as high as the eighth-worst in the NHL, which would be less than ideal for their draft goals.
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