The top of the SEC title picture and College Football Playoff race took a major turn Tuesday following news of Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer heading to the sideline after a wrist injury requiring surgery he suffered during a Week 4 win over Auburn.
With a timetable for his return unknown other than the expectation he’ll be back at some point this fall, the Sooners must replace their top offensive player who was leading the SEC in passing yards with 1,215 and paced No. 7 Oklahoma’s rushing attack after scoring at least one touchdown in every game.
Financial advisors would suggest the selling of futures on Oklahoma’s playoff chances given what lies ahead in October and beyond for the Sooners, but the path remains clear for a team and coaching staff — currently +125 to make the CFP field, according to DraftKings — uncertain on how long Mateer will be sidelined.
Unbeaten and ranked No. 7 in this week’s AP Top 25 poll, the Sooners are open before hosting Kent State, which gives Ben Arbuckle and Oklahoma’s offensive staff nearly three weeks of preparation time for backup quarterback Michael Hawkins to play his best against No. 10 Texas on Oct. 11. Oklahoma travels to South Carolina the following weekend before hosting 13th-ranked Ole Miss to finish the month.
John Mateer injury: Where Oklahoma goes from here with its Heisman-contending QB sidelined multiple weeks
Shehan Jeyarajah
Oklahoma was tabbed as the first team out at No. 13 in CBS Sports’ updated playoff projection on Tuesday ahead of the program’s injury announcement for Mateer. The predicted finish pointed to the Sooners ending the year at 9-3 overall with five wins over nationally ranked teams but skipped over by the selection committee in favor of a two-loss, ACC runner-up Georgia Tech.
Ten wins is the magic number in the SEC to all but guarantee playoff inclusion considering how many ranked teams are within the league at this very moment. However, if there’s a Power Four team capable of reaching the playoff as a three-loss at-large, the Sooners fit the bill given the strength of schedule edge they’re going to have against other competitors in the mix.
No team currently ranked inside this week’s AP poll squares off with as many top 25 opponents as the Sooners the rest of the way. That’s both a gift and a potential curse for Brent Venables, who’s now facing the arduous task of taking the field without his front-running Heisman candidate for the next several weeks.
Oklahoma’s remaining schedule
- vs. Kent State, Oct. 4
- vs. No. 10 Texas, Oct. 11
- at South Carolina, Oct. 18
- No. 13 Ole Miss, Oct. 25
- No. 15 at Tennessee, Nov. 1
- at No. 17 Alabama, Nov. 15
- No. 20 Missouri, Nov. 22
- No. 4 LSU, Nov. 29
It’s an absolute gauntlet of a second-half slate for the Sooners. A 5-2 finish over those seven conference games, coupled with wins over Michigan and Auburn already in the Sooners’ back pocket, should be enough to get to the playoff. Looking ahead, if Mateer’s pain tolerance is high and he’s able to return to the field against Ole Miss at the end of next month or sooner, that could set up well for Oklahoma.
As for the playoff selection process, the committee factors in availability of key players according to their own guidelines, so Oklahoma wouldn’t necessarily be docked if, say, the Sooners finish 10-2 and both of those losses come with Mateer sidelined.
Record strength is another factor to consider, here. The playoff announced over the summer will use an “enhanced” tool to further emphasize strength of schedule in its selection process this season. It emphasizes extra credit for beating quality teams, while lessening the penalty for losses against tougher opponents. Additionally, the existing strength of schedule metric has been adjusted to further err towards playing higher-level foes.
The big picture for the Sooners alters considerably if Mateer’s recovery is long-term and he misses most of his team’s final remaining six contests with nationally-ranked SEC opponents.
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