Job done for NI – what could Nations League promotion mean for World Cup hopes?

It wasn’t exactly saving the best until last, but Northern Ireland’s draw with Luxembourg earned them promotion to League B in the Nations League.

Michael O’Neill is developing a young Northern Ireland team that has bags of potential.

Not only will his side be playing in League B in the next edition of the Nations League, finishing top of Group C3 could have wider implications.

It also keeps open the possibility of a back door into the play-offs for the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada and Mexico.

BBC Sport NI explains how it all works.

The story so far

Northern Ireland started their campaign at home to Luxembourg, when Paddy McNair and Daniel Ballard netted in a 2-0 win.

That was followed by the low point – a 1-0 defeat in Bulgaria.

Northern Ireland dominated Belarus in western Hungry but couldn’t find the breakthrough, but they saved their best to last.

O’Neill’s side put in a five-star performance to blow Bulgaria away in Belfast to put themselves top of the group and they cemented that position with victory over Belarus on Friday.

After taking a two-goal lead in Luxembourg through Isaac Price and Conor Bradley, a draw was enough to secure top spot and promotion to League B.

The World Cup implications

Winning their Nations League group could also expand Northern Ireland’s possible routes into the World Cup in 2026.

Now, it has to be emphasised there is a lot of football to be played and plenty of ifs, buts and maybes – but stick with us.

Putting the Nations League to one side for the moment, the number of European teams in the 2026 World Cup will rise to 16.

When qualifying begins next spring, the 12 group winners will automatically qualify for the finals in the USA, Canada and Mexico.

The 12 runners-up will qualify for a play-off, and will be joined by four group winners from the Nations League.

Now this is where it gets slightly complicated and Northern Ireland’s Nations League finish becomes all the more important.

The four highest-ranked Nations League group winners who did not automatically qualify for the finals or secure a play-off through the traditional qualifying route will therefore be the nations that move into those extra play-off spots.

The 16 play-off teams will face a one-legged semi-final and final to determine which four teams will join the 12 group winners in the Americas.

First of all, for an idea of who it could be you have to take a look at the current group leaders in the Nations League.

Portugal, Spain, France and Germany are the leaders in League A with England, Norway, Turkey and Czech Republic in League B.

All those teams are set as group winners aside from Turkey in Group B4, who face already-relegated Montenegro in their final match on Tuesday while Wales can still take top spot.

In League C, it’s North Macedonia, Romania, Sweden and Northern Ireland.

Now, the easiest and most straight-forward way for Northern Ireland to reach the play-offs or finals is to finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying group.

Speaking hypothetically, should Northern Ireland top League C3 in the Nations League, but then get a difficult World Cup qualifying draw, O’Neill will want the other Nations League group winners to finish in their top two of their qualifying groups.

While Northern Ireland are in the third tier, they would move their way up the list of rankings of Nations League group winners if the traditional bigger nations qualify or secure a play-off as expected.

In the breakdown of the current League C teams, Northern Ireland are currently ranked at the bottom.

1. North Macedonia (16 points)

2. Romania (15 points)

3. Sweden (13 points)

4. Northern Ireland (11 points)

There is a question mark over Romania’s final placing as their penultimate match with Kosovo was abandoned in stoppage-time and Uefa has yet to announce a ruling on their result.

Sweden are already guaranteed top spot in Group C1 and play their final match against Azerbaijan on Tuesday.

As things stand, if one opening was available to a League C side then as it stands, North Macedonia would be the beneficiaries, and then Romania, Sweden and, finally, Northern Ireland.

All will become a lot more clear after the draw for World Cup qualifying, which takes place on Friday, 13 December.