It’s never going to get better for James Franklin and Penn State than it was a year ago.
If that wasn’t clear to you, then it’s crystal clear now after Penn State’s devastating loss to previously winless UCLA.
Technically, Penn State is still in the College Football Playoff hunt, but losing to a 0-4 team that has already fired its head coach and lost by 25 points to New Mexico should be disqualifying. Before the game, there were real questions about whether UCLA would even win a game this season and instead new offensive coordinator Jerry Neuheisel was being carried off the field after the stunning 42-37 win over No. 7 Penn State, the first time a top 10 team lost to an 0-4 one since 1985.
At minimum, Penn State will have to win at least one of its games against Ohio State and Indiana to have any shot at making the playoffs. We all know how “Big Game James” fares in those.
This was supposed to be the “Last Dance” season for Penn State, the all-in approach that would follow the same successful blueprint as Michigan and Ohio State the last two seasons. Penn State did a terrific job retaining talent, such as running back Nicholas Singleton and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton. The University also swiped Jim Knowles away from Ohio State and made him the game’s highest-paid coordinator at $3 million annually, making no qualms about highlighting this as the year to win it all.
Before the season, Franklin said it was the best combination of player and coaching talent he’s had in his 12 seasons at Penn State. And yet here we sit Oct. 5th, and Penn State is 3-2 with zero wins over a Power Four opponent so far.
“We didn’t win the last two games, but yeah, obviously I felt that way, or I wouldn’t have said it,” Franklin said. “But after two losses, it’s hard for me to answer that question and say that that’s the case.”
As the years go by, Franklin and Penn State must live with the regret of letting last year’s golden opportunity slip through their fingers. PSU was gifted the perfect playoff path; all that stood between it and a title game appearance was SMU at home, Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl and Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. The Nittany Lions were favored in all of them.
Penn State had an early 10-0 lead over Notre Dame and a 24-17 lead with less than eight minutes remaining in the game, but coughed it up after a brutal Drew Allar interception set up the Fighting Irish for a game-winning field goal. Penn State would have likely still lost to Ohio State in the national championship game, but it would have certainly fared better than a gutsy yet overmatched Notre Dame squad.
Allar has never really been the same since that Orange Bowl. For all the haters who mocked our “Would Penn State be better with Nico Iamaleava instead of Allar?” take on the College Football Insiders podcast, Iamaleava was clearly the better quarterback Saturday inside the Rose Bowl. Iamaleava had five touchdowns (3 running, 2 passing) and flourished under Neuheisel’s play-calling. Allar has regressed this season and doesn’t look anything like a guy who could be a first-round draft pick like some expected at the start of the year.
Where does Penn State go from here?
The peak of the Franklin era has already happened. The bottom hasn’t hit yet.
He has won too much and is owed too much money (nearly $50 million) for Penn State to fire him. His contract runs through 2031 and to this point athletic director Pat Kraft has been nothing but supportive of the program’s second-winningest coach. Unless the wheels absolutely fall off and Penn State goes winless the rest of the season (that’s not happening), Penn State isn’t paying $50 million to get rid of a guy who has won at least 10 games the last three seasons.
But a little pressure could help foist him onto another program that values a high floor more than a championship-level ceiling.
In what figures to be an extremely active coaching carousel, this may be the time for Franklin to leave State College and head elsewhere. In industry circles, Franklin has been a rumored name to keep in mind for Florida for more than a year now, but the pressure is just as high in Gainesville as at State College (and the optics of Florida hiring a coach who lost to UCLA on the same day Billy Napier beats Texas is somewhat hilarious).
Auburn head coach James Franklin?
Wisconsin head coach James Franklin?
Is Virginia Tech too far a step down for Franklin to consider?
There could be quite a few attractive job openings for Franklin and his super agent, Jimmy Sexton, to consider this year. He could stay at Penn State, make some assistant coach changes and hope next year is better. But the talent coming back doesn’t suggest it will — Penn State has not been recruiting at an elite level, either — and the better path could be starting anew elsewhere. He’s going to make a ton of money regardless, whether it’s staying at Penn State or leaving for a new Power 4 job. But his quality of life and appreciation for what he does as a program leader could be better elsewhere.
There are plenty of college football programs that would love to win 8, 9, 10 games every season. Just being in the playoff hunt would be a dream for so many. Unfortunately for Franklin, he’s at a school that would like to be a bit more than that, especially when it invests so heavily financially like it did in this all-in year, and he’s not equipped to achieve that. He’s the James Harden of college football — his big game struggles are a feature, not a bug at this point.
It’d be a hit to his ego but leaving Penn State before Penn State tells him to leave looks more and more like the right move for Franklin.
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