Did you miss Jake Paul in a boxing ring? If your answer was “no,” he’s not sorry to disappoint you. “The Problem Child” returns to the ring on June 28 to face Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
The fight on DAZN will be contested under the cruiserweight level. So will the co-main event, featuring Gilberto Ramirez vs. Yuniel Dorticos for the former’s WBA and WBO cruiserweight titles.
Paul (11-1) has primarily competed against former MMA fighters and novice boxers. His last fight was against 58-year-old Mike Tyson in November. The YouTuber-turned-boxer is on a five-fight win streak.
Chavez (54-6-1) is a former WBC middleweight champion who has gone 4-3 since losing against Canelo Alvarez in 2017. He has fought sparingly and has upset fans by missing weight or quitting early in fights. Still, the 39-year-old has promised he’s motivated heading into this fight.
It’s Paul vs. another boxer. But given Chavez’s track record in and out of the ring over the years, how much of an edge does Paul have against him?
Meanwhile, Ramirez (47-1) has found a home at cruiserweight after a long run at super middleweight. On a three-fight win streak, he faces a former champion in Dorticos (27-2), also on a three-fight win streak.
With the help of the FanDuel Sportsbook, The Sporting News makes predictions on the Paul vs. Chavez card.
Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. expert picks and full card predictions
Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.; Cruiserweights
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Jake Paul is the -700 favorite, while Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. is the +450 underdog.
Paul is a power puncher who can also fight effectively in and out of range. He landed 49 of 157 shots (31.2%) against Tommy Fury, knocking down the “Love Island” star in a loss. Against Nate Diaz, Paul landed 174 of 491 shots (35.4%), landing 140 for power. Of those shots, 34 jabs kept Diaz at bay.
Against Andre August, Paul used his jabs to push his opponent back, and he used jabs, uppercuts, and body shots to bully Ryan Bourland. Against Mike Perry, Paul landed 96 punches, 52 of them jabs. He knocked down Perry three times.
In his last fight against Mike Tyson, Paul landed 78 of 278 shots (28.1%), aiming for the body through the fight. The fight was contested under two-minute rounds. It showcased Paul’s agility but also how old and fragile Tyson was at 58.
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In 2017, Chavez landed an average of six of 25 punches per round against Canelo Alvarez, only landing single-digit shots through the fight for 71 total strikes. When he quit after five rounds against Daniel Jacobs, Chavez landed 35 of 116 (30%) shots.
Since those fights against premier athletes, Chavez’s resume has also included former MMA fighters. Against Anderson Silva, who Paul knocked down, Chavez landed 53 of 153 shots (34.6%), only landing double-digit strikes in the last round. In his last fight against Uriah Hall, Chavez landed 68 of 168 strikes (40.5%), his best outing in years.
The Diaz fight was one of Paul’s most impressive wins, as his cardio got tested against someone known for wearing out an opponent. It’s doubtful his cardio will be tested against Chavez.
There have always been questions surrounding Chavez’s dedication to the sport. While Paul has talked a lot of trash, he respects the skills of the former champion. He won’t be taking Chavez lightly,
If the Chavez who many believed to be the future of boxing at one point shows up, Paul could be in trouble. Stranger things have happened outside this fight actually being booked. Outside a knockdown or two, a decision win seems likely for Paul.
Sporting News prediction: Paul via unanimous decision
Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez (c) vs. Yuniel Dorticos for the WBA and WBO cruiserweight titles
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Gilberto Ramirez is the -1350 favorite, while Yuniel Dorticos is the +720 underdog.
A natural super middleweight, one of Ramirez’s main assets at the lower weight classes was work rate. Still, “Zurdo” has proven he can pack a punch at any weight.
Against Sullivan Barrera, Ramirez dropped him three times before finishing him off in the fourth. Facing Yunieski Gonzalez, he pressed forward for 10 rounds and bulled his opponent, ultimately winning via TKO.
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In his first major test at light heavyweight, Ramirez landed 107 of 878 shots (12.2%) against Dmitry Bivol compared to 131 of 643 blows (20.4%) by the latter. Bivol landed 63.8% of his blows for jabs against Ramirez, who averaged 73.2 punches per round.
Finding more success at cruiserweight, Ramirez was a level above Chris Billam-Smith in terms of footwork and punch variety. The latter landed 33 more power punches, but Ramirez landed harder. Ramirez managed 36 more jabs and was the more accurate fighter, landing 236 of 582 shots (40.5).
Dorticos pushed Oleksandr Usyk to the limit in 2018. However, he hasn’t found the same success against other opponents since. In a losing effort against Murat Gassiev in 2018, Dorticos landed 132 of 602 shots (21.9%) compared to 190 of 608 shots (31.3%) from Gassiev.
The 39-year-old lost against Mairis Briedis in 2020. He was in the fight, but Briedis provided more pressure. Now, he competes in one of the biggest fights of his career against a younger opponent.
Dorticos may be biting off more than he can chew against Ramirez. Expect “Zurdo” to make a statement as he aims to unify the division against Jai Opetaia or face Paul if he wins in the main event.
Sporting News prediction: Ramirez via TKO (round seven)
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