It's Coming Home: Our Best Bets for the 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale

There’s something in the air—it feels like an Englishman’s week. But even though everyone’s got their eye on the kid from Southport, it’s a son of Sheffield we’re liking at Birkdale. Here’s why.

Royal Birkdale, for younger fans, will elicit memories of Jordan Spieth trying to get across the finish line from anywhere and everywhere on Sunday in 2017. A task that he successfully accomplished even if it took a shot from the driving range on Sunday.

For more seasoned golf fans, maybe they’ll remember Lee Trevino’s first of his back-to-back Open Championship wins in 1971 or the famous “concession” between Jack Nicklaus and Tony Jacklin at the 1969 Ryder Cup – which led to a 16-16 tie in the competition.

It’s a venue filled with history that tends to ease you into play on the front nine, before raising the level of demands for the second nine. The fairways are rather generous and lack the undulation of other Open Championship venues but the layout creates a near infinite number of outcomes. The routing ensures that holes are being played in every direction forcing players to make constant adjustments for wind.

There has been significant work done to the course since 2017 with nearly every hole being touched. The big changes come on the back with the 14th hole being completely removed, the 15th being remodeled into the 14th and a brand new 15th being constructed.

The final major of the year is sure to offer a little bit of everything as Royal Birkdale never disappoints.

Winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (+2100)

Matt Fitzpatrick may very well be the player of the year thanks to his three wins and six total top-5 finishes this year. On a per round basis, he’s gaining more than 1.50 strokes which ranks him amongst the game’s elite.

He’s a prolific ball-striker, beating his peers routinely both off-the-tee and with his approach play. There has only been one event in 2026 that Fitzpatrick has failed to gain strokes on approach and that was the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which was held in March.

He has the best short-game on the PGA TOUR which will be valuable around the tricky greenside areas at Royal Birkdale. His Open Championship record is solid and improving – he’s made six straight cuts at this event and last year’s T4 was the best result of his career.

Winner: Justin Thomas (+4600)

On paper, Justin Thomas is the perfect Open Championship player but these championships are not played on paper. Despite being an elite iron player with magnificent hands around-the-greens, Thomas has only one Top 30 finish at this event in his career – a T11 in 2019.

If there was ever a time for Thomas to put together a better result, it would be this week. He’s round into form with seven top-25 finishes in his last eight starts. He’s unlocked putting gains that have often caused him trouble in the past. He’s a multiple time major winner who is playing some of his best golf in the last few years and this price was too long to pass up.

Top 5: Rory McIlroy (+310)

Over the last ten years, McIlroy has been a staple on the first page of the leaderboard. He has a staggering 55.3% top-10 rate and 28.9% top-5 rate. Both are the best in the world amongst golfers who have played as many majors as Rory has played.

The numbers get even better at The Open Championship where he jumps to a 62.5% top-10 rate and 37.5% top-5 rate. His short-game doesn’t get enough attention as he’s an accomplished chipper and pitcher of the golf ball. He does run streaky with his putter but he more than makes up for it by being the best driver on the planet.

I’m not too worried about what these players did in 2017, the last time we played at Royal Birkdale, but McIlroy’s T4 finish is simply a bonus.

Top 5: Justin Rose (+750)

The truth about Justin Rose is that he is a volatile player who either “has it” that week or he doesn’t. His major championship record features nearly the same number of top-10s (25) as missed cuts (27). In fact, he’s the only active player with a career strokes gained rate over +1.4 sg/round who has more missed cuts than top-10s. It’s evidence of pure greatness mixed with some sour play.

This year, however, has been special for Rosey. He’s finished T3-T10-T11 at the year’s first three majors. He has a win at Torrey Pines, which just so happens to be another common major championship venue, and has played his best golf at the game’s most difficult courses.

I’ve been impressed with his iron play, which has been the best facet of his game in 2026. He’s had six different events in which he’s gained at least three strokes on approach. He’s also starting to settle in the with the putter, flashing that upside that we know he often does. Rose is one of the best in the world at showing up at the biggest events and there’s no reason to think that won’t happen again this week.

Top 10: Scottie Scheffler (+177)

While Scheffler has “lacked” the wins we expected in 2026, he’s been a constant in contention. His missed cut last week was his first in nearly four years but it’s not something that provides me too much pause. Scheffler has proven to be one the best “adjusters” on the TOUR who can simply fix things quickly with a solid range session.

He has stood on the podium seven times this year including twice at major championships. He’s on a historic start to his major championship career, already with four wins in his first 28 starts.

His tee-to-green game is the best on TOUR at +1.85 strokes per round and he adds another half a stroke per round with his putter making it the second best putting year of his career.

Again, the “win luck” is simply noise. Scheffler is the best player in the world, having the best season, as the best major championship player, and now the defending champion.

Top 10: Robert MacIntyre (+475)

McIntyre is a bit of a statistical anomaly. He’s been able to garner decent results in 2026 despite struggling with his approach play. That’s difficult to do considering how valuable approach shots are in the world of golf.

However, we are starting to see signs of improvement in that category which could spark some meaningful gains. After losing strokes on approach in six straight events from the Masters to the Memorial, MacIntyre has been on fire with his approach play in his last four starts. That includes the staggering +9.69 strokes he gained last week at the Scottish Open en route to a T3 finish.

That has led to some of his better results in 2026 with a T15 at the Canadian Open and T10 at the Travelers Championship. He’s never missed a cut at The Open has has finished inside the top-10 in half of his six career starts – including a T7 at Royal Portrush last year.

Top 20: Angel Ayora (+375)

Ayora is a 21-year old talented Spainard who will make just the second major championship appearance of his career. He’s talented but he’s raw. He’ll bomb it off-the-tee as one of the longer hitters on the DP World Tour and he’ll make plenty of birdies along the way. He may also put some crooked number on the card as he continues to mature.

The results reveal plenty of upside. He’s earned two top-5 finishes in his last four starts, offset by three missed cuts.

He’s earned nine top-20 finishes in 2026 with some impressive stat lines to boast. Maybe the most impressive has been the 2.6 strokes he gained tee-to-green at the PGA Championship (MC) and the +2.035 strokes he gained at last week’s Scottish Open.

He needs to put it all together but he’s capable of doing that and the price certainly reflects that of a volatile player.

Top 20: Eugenio Chacarra (+335)

Golf is a global game and Chacarra is dominating it on the international stage. In his 20 starts this year, he’s already earned six top-10 finishes including back-to-back wins at the KLM Open and Italian Open within the last six weeks.

His last 11 events have been even more impressive. He’s gained a total of 95 strokes to the field across those 11 events making him one of the hottest players on the planet.

Despite his solid play, Chacarra hasn’t qualified for any other major in 2026 and has only played two majors in his career – both missed cuts. This will be his first career Open Championship which does warrant some level of caution but his play has been too good to leave off the card.

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