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Toronto Maple Leafs games have featured significantly less offense without Auston Matthews in the lineup.
With an excellent goaltending matchup between Ilya Sorokin and Joseph Woll, my Islanders vs. Maple Leafs predictions expect goals will once again be hard to come by.
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Let’s break down my NHL picks for Tuesday, March 17.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs prediction
Islanders vs Maple Leafs best bet: Under 5.5 (+115)
The Toronto Maple Leafs have played in much lower scoring games with Auston Matthews sidelined. Those contests have averaged 5.37 goals, well below the 6.78 when Matthews is in the lineup.
That trend should continue against the New York Islanders, who slot 4th in goals allowed and will be starting Vezina candidate Ilya Sorokin.
He sits atop the league in Goals Saved Above Expected (+26.2) and allows just 2.5 goals per game.
Joseph Woll is also in good form. He has posted a .900+ save percentage in six of eight, setting him up nicely heading into a matchup with the 22nd ranked offense.
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Islanders vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
John Tavares has averaged 3.8 shots on 7.4 attempts through four home games without Auston Matthews this season. Those are Matthews-like outputs. Playing the 1C role against his former team, Tavares is a strong candidate to lead the Leafs in shots.
Brandon Carlo blocked multiple shots only once over his first six games. Since that point, he has averaged 2.1 and managed a 62% hit rate. The Islanders rank Top-10 in 5-on-5 shot generation over their past 10, giving Carlo plenty of pucks to jump in front of.
Islanders vs Maple Leafs SGP
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John Tavares Over 2.5 shots
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Brandon Carlo Over 1.5 blocks
Islanders vs Maple Leafs odds
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Moneyline: New York -135 | Toronto +115
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Puck Line: New York -1.5 (+175) | Toronto +1.5 (-215)
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Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+115) | Under 6.5 (-135)
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Islanders vs Maple Leafs trend
The New York Islanders have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+8.45 Units / 30% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Maple Leafs.
How to watch Islanders vs Maple Leafs
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Location |
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
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Date |
Tuesday, March 17, 2026 |
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Puck drop |
7:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
MSGSN, TSN4 |
Islanders vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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