Islam Makhachev has become a pound-for-pound great in the UFC, taking down everyone in his path. Ian Machado Garry attempts to halt his momentum and take gold off his waist when he challenges for the UFC welterweight title at UFC 330.
Holding the record for most consecutive UFC lightweight title defenses, Makhachev (28-1) vacated the belt and beat Jack Della Maddalena in November to win the UFC welterweight title. The Russian hasn’t lost a fight since UFC 192.
Some are saying Machado Garry is his toughest opponent to date. However, the 34-year-old Makhachev believes he’s on another level, especially heading into fight night.
“It’s not going to be my biggest challenge,” Makhachev said via MMA Fighting. “He’s just good. I give him respect. He has good skills, but everybody knows my game. We’ll see how he prepared for that.
“In welterweight, if you watch the last fight [with Jack Della Maddalena] it’s like more a boxer, but I think Ian has more skills. He’s good in the striking. He has good wrestling defense. But he has some weak points. He’s not complete like 100% like myself. He’s good. It’s going to be a good fight. I saw he has good takedown defense. I have some keys to beat him easy.”
Machado Garry (17-1) lost to Shavkat Rakhmonov in a UFC welterweight title eliminator in 2024 but recovered by winning two straight. The Irishman envisions a dominant run in the UFC if he wins gold on Saturday night.
“I’m talking about a decade of domination. I’m 28 years of age. (Alexander) Volkanovski is still champion of the world. He’s 38. Justin Gaethje just won a title in his third attempt. He’s 38 years of age. I have 10 years of domination in this sport against the next best opponent every single time,” Machado Garry said via MMA Junkie.
The Sporting News makes predictions on Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry and the UFC 330 main card. Plus, new users can bet $5 on this fight and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry odds
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Islam Makhachev: -340 | Ian Machado Garry: +270
- Makhachev via KO/TKO: +900
- Makhachev via submission: +225
- Makhachev via decision: +110
- Machado Garry via KO/TKO: +900
- Machado Garry via submission: +4500
- Machado Garry via decision: +425
- Draw: +5000
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Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction
Ian Machado Garry oozes confidence, but can his actual skills back it up against the dangerous Islam Makhachev?
Makhachev lands 2.45 significant strikes per minute, his highest being 88 against Dustin Poirier. However, it’s the ground game that makes him elite, as he averages 3.10 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing 10 in his last three fights. Three of his last four fights have ended in either KO or submission.
Machado Garry lands 4.78 significant strikes and has a 54% strike accuracy mark. He also averages 0.92 takedowns. One of his most impressive performances was landing 126 strikes and four takedowns against Carlos Prates. Against Belal Muhammad, he stuffed seven takedown attempts.
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Machado Garry’s style, using his reach, may be a nightmare for Makhachev to handle. His takedown defense is something to marvel at. Makhachev has a never-ending gas pedal, never giving his opponents a chance to breathe. He can force the Irish fighter to tire out rather quickly if he doesn’t have the stamina for five tough rounds.
Machado Garry has a solid game plan against the big names. His overall ring IQ, changing tactics mid-fight, could be the deciding factor to end the night with the upset and the title.
Sporting News prediction: Machado Garry via unanimous decision
More UFC 330 fight card picks
Mackenzie Dern (c) vs. Gillian Robertson for the UFC strawweight title
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Mackenzie Dern is the -218 favorite, while Gillian Robertson is the +180 underdog.
Dern lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute. While her striking is not elite like most, she did land 118 against Virna Jandiroba. The champion averages 0.93 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing five in her last three fights.
Robertson lands 2.71 significant strikes. She also averages 2.76 takedowns landed, landing 10 in her last three bouts.
Dern won the title against Jandiroba after Zhang Weili relinquished the belt. Many thought Zhang would try to win the title back, but she’s been radio silent. So for now, Dern acts as the champion. She’s a grappling ace, having won gold all over in BJJ. However, she only has eight wins via submission.
Robertson can force fighters to the floor, but she may want to try and keep it on the feet to avoid Dern’s ground game. That could work against her and make this fight not as compelling as it could be.
Robertson could walk into the cage and bring it to Dern, adding violence in every aspect of the fight. The fight could be a game of cat and mouse, which could surprise many fans. It could very well go the distance, and a Robertson win isn’t that far off to imagine.
Sporting News prediction: Robertson via unanimous decision
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Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes; Lightweights
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Jalin Turner is the -155 favorite, while Kaue Fernandes is the +130 underdog.
Turner lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.75 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He looks to win two straight for the first time since 2022. Fernandes, who has won three straight, lands 4.28 significant strikes and averages 1.18 takedowns landed.
Turner came back after initially retiring. Known for viral moments, Turner won a fight in December, his first since 2023. Fernandes is a rising star but hasn’t faced the same level of competition as Turner has. Still, that’s what this challenge is for.
Fernandes can use leg kicks and a reach advantage to take the win and gain additional momentum.
Sporting News prediction: Fernandes via TKO (round two)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus; Middleweights
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Mansur Abdul-Malik is the -675 favorite, while Dustin Stoltzfus is the +490 underdog.
Abdul-Malik, 2-2 in his last two fights, lands 3.28 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 1.65 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Stoltzfus lands 3.30 significant strikes and averages 2.08 takedowns landed. He’s on a two-fight losing streak.
The 28-year-old Abdul-Malik faces a tough test in Stoltzfus, 34, as he attempts to make an impact. Stoltzfus appears to be on his last legs in MMA. Coming off a loss, Abdul-Malik should be motivated and make this a quick fight.
Sporting News prediction: Abdul-Malik via TKO (round one)
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Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics; Lightweights
Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Esteban Ribovics is the -650 favorite, while Edson Barboza is the +470 underdog.
Ribovics lands 7.27 significant strikes per minute, landing 429 in his last four fights. He also averages 0.35 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Barboza lands 4.14 significant strikes and averages 0.43 takedowns landed.
Facing an increase in competition, Ribovics is 2-2 in his last four fights. The veteran here, Barboza, is on a three-fight losing streak. He’s taken some damage since 2023 via significant strikes. Ribovics should chop the legs and slowly work away at Barboza.
Barboza should be relatively safe for the first 1.5 rounds. Then, the real fun should begin for Ribovics.
Sporting News prediction: Ribovics via unanimous decision
Where to bet on UFC 330
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Full UFC 330 fight card
Main Card
- Islam Makhachev (c) vs. Ian Machado Garry for the UFC welterweight title
- Mackenzie Dern (c) vs. Gillian Robertson for the UFC strawweight title
- Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes; Lightweights
- Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus; Middleweights
- Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics; Lightweights
Prelims
- Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Alvarez; Welterweights
- Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Henrique; Catchweight
- Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico; Middleweights
- Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore; Middleweights
Early Prelims
- Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando; Light Heavyweights
- Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj; Welterweights
- Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai; Welterweights
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