When the end started to become clear in the expensive marriage of Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos, it was late October of 2023.
Denver had just lost on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 of the season, falling into an insurmountable 1-5 hole that felt like an ugly echo of the Nathaniel Hackett disaster one year earlier. Broncos head coach Sean Payton, who had taken the job with hope that he could get Wilson back on a serviceable track as an NFL starter, was feeling the creeping frustration that his quarterback wasn’t approaching a corner, let alone turning one. Wilson had a terrible day in the loss to Kansas City, completing 13 of 22 passes for a paltry 95 yards and two interceptions against one touchdown. Now Denver fans were calling for the job of general manager George Paton and embracing a harsh reality: The Broncos were going to have to absorb an unfathomable salary cap asteroid, then live through a post- apocalyptic rebuild.
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Nearly two years later, it’s a pertinent story of survival. Not only because the Broncos illustrated that it can be done but also because history may be repeating itself with the Miami Dolphins and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are off to a dreadful start to the 2025 NFL season. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Granted, we’re only one week into the 2025 NFL season. This time last year, the New England Patriots were 1-0 and feeling some optimism, while the Washington Commanders were 0-1 and bracing for a long, difficult season. By the time it was all over, the Patriots would be sitting on a top-four draft pick and firing their coaching staff, while the Commanders and quarterback Jayden Daniels would be toast of the league after streaking to the NFC championship game. But Week 1 wasn’t all lies. The Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans showcased ugly problems out of the gate in 2024, and most of their issues would worsen throughout the season.
The question for the Dolphins is whether the baffling 33-8 loss to the Indianapolis Colts is an indication of where the franchise is at, or just a flop that quickly gets corrected.
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Undoubtedly, that answer is going to be focused through Tagovailoa, who threw for only 114 yards and gave the ball away three times (two interceptions and a fumble). It was a performance that drew a chilling assessment from one of Tagovailoa’s former teammates, cornerback Xavien Howard, who is now a key starter for the Colts.
“We knew the guy — he gets the ball out pretty quick,” Howard said of Tagovailoa on Monday. “And once we take away his first read, I feel like it’s panic mode after that. And it showed [Sunday]. We took away his first read and he was trying to get rid of the ball real quick.”
Coming from a former teammate, it was a biting assessment. It’s also a reminder that even with his massive contract extension hanging overhead, the 2025 season is going to be a referendum on Tagovailoa’s future in Miami. And if his performance against the Colts is a sign of things to come, it’s going to get bleak very quickly for the Dolphins. Maybe even to the point that we see Tagovailoa joining Wilson in the rare mega salary cap dump tier.
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But before that happens, three questions have to be answered …
What happens with head coach Mike McDaniel?
McDaniel preached for patience after the loss to the Colts, but he’s going to be on a slippery slope if there isn’t a significant correction in Week 2 against the Patriots. Losing to the Colts in a manner that was suggestive of the Colts having potentially resolved their quarterback issues with the addition of Daniel Jones is not a great look for Miami, particularly when the Dolphins are still trying to get Tagovailoa back to his 2023 form. Possibly suffering a Week 2 loss to the Patriots — who are bringing along promising second-year quarterback Drake Maye — would be just another reminder that other teams are fixing their QB spot while the Dolphins are strapped onto a roller coaster with Tagovailoa. If McDaniel is going to remain in Miami after 2025, that path goes through his quarterback and whatever resolution needs to be embraced.
Are there other quarterback options on the horizon?
If Tagovailoa isn’t the long-term answer in Miami, then it means someone else has to be. Ultimately, that’s what helped bring a resolution to Wilson’s end with the Broncos, with Payton knowing he was going to have options that he liked in the 2024 NFL Draft. As Payton explained to Yahoo Sports in a previous interview, part of the trick in taking a salary cap beating to get rid of Wilson’s contract was having the confidence that it was going to be replaced at the position with a rookie deal. The same would have to be true for Miami, who is already within $4 million of the cap ceiling this season and also projecting a negative cap balance in 2026, thanks to more than $31 million in dead money already on the books next season for cornerback Jalen Ramsey and offensive tackle Terron Armstead. There’s simply no way the Dolphins could jettison Tagovailoa on top of that dead money pile without finding a cheap starting quarterback in 2026.
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The potential is there, particularly if the Dolphins have a high first-round draft pick next season. As it stands, multiple personnel sources have told Yahoo Sports as many as six quarterbacks could enter the 2026 draft with a first-round projection.
What would the financial nuclear winter look like if Tagovailoa were released?
Like Wilson’s NFL record $85 million in dead salary cap charges over the past two seasons, the Dolphins would suffer immensely for the next two years. Not quite on the Broncos’ level, but fairly close — to the tune of $79.2 million. The one upside for Miami is that Denver did provide a workable blueprint, designating Wilson a post June 1 release and splitting his $85 million charge over two seasons ($53 million on their 2024 cap and $32 million on the 2025 books). The Dolphins could take the same route with Tagovailoa, putting $62.4 million on the 2026 cap and the remaining $16.8 in 2027.
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The catastrophic end of that move would be the makeup of the 2026 roster, with the Dolphins finding space by either dumping other cuttable veteran deals (Tyreek Hill most especially) and then restructuring a handful of other contracts to create space and push money further out into 2027 or beyond.
Of course, to turn the ship quickly, the Dolphins would also have to pull off the other trick that the Broncos managed: Hitting on draft picks and cheap free agents who are capable of stepping in and playing well … not to mention selecting the right quarterback.
Impossible? No. But necessary for the Dolphins? Like the Broncos before them, we may know by the end of October whether or not Tagovailoa is capable of recapturing his (thus far) one season of high level play. If not, it’s going to be a different kind of panic mode — for the entire franchise.
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