Inside the chaos that decided NASCAR’s final playoff spot

Alex Bowman owes Ryan Blaney seven million beers. He offered. 

Blaney won the race — but had five winless drivers all behind him crossing the line — and any of them winning their way into the playoffs would have eliminated the previously crashed-out Bowman.

– Daniel Suarez
– Justin Haley
– Cole Custer
– Erik Jones
– Chris Buescher

Oh, to be in the shoes of Bowman, watching from elsewhere in the infield as his playoff hopes hung in the balance against the unlikeliest of odds. The list above doesn’t even include race winning contenders Ryan Preece, John Hunter Nemechek and Cody Ware.

Yes, that Cody Ware, who led 23 laps!

In baseball, win probability charts are graphs that show the likelihood of a team winning over the course of a game, and if such a thing existed in NASCAR, Bowman’s playoff odds would have fluctuated in dizzying fashion.

So yeah, Blaney finding a way to drive from 13th to the win over the final two laps against all that desperation is a cause for seven million beers, one at a time.

“Oh, I’ll take 5 million,” Blaney said while sipping a beer during his post-race press conference. “I’ll save him some money. Someone told me that he got in because I won, right? Like if the 41, the 7, 99 would have won, he would have been out? I’ll take that offer.

“I do need a refill if he’s still here. I can start with one.”

Meanwhile, each of those eliminated had different reasons to drink after the race, commiserating over all the what could have been — their own playoff odds graphics being tossed around like a ship at sea.

Preece said with assurance ‘I felt like we were going to win that race,’ shortly after climbing out the car. His RFK Racing team have one of the best superspeedway packages and was in the mix until Kyle Larson shucked him out of the groove inside of five laps to go.

Hendrick’s mission to ensure a repeat winner

The field races to two laps to go

Photo by: Jonathan Bachman – Getty Images

 “Man, I felt like we were going to win that race,” Preece said. “You want to talk about having the best scenario play out for how we wanted it to, I was just leaving (Haley) there. (Buescher) was doing a great job just letting him stay there and there is nothing you can do.

“The problem is you know (Chase Elliott and Larson) were worried about their teammate that would have been bumped out, so it was a tough situation. I thought we were going to win that one because we did everything right today and it just didn’t work out.”

This was a key storyline late in the race, by the way.

Larson had also similarly placed Erik Jones into a bad spot the lap before and it was simply clear that the Hendrick Motorsports drivers were not going to push any must-win driver into the lead.

If they won, it served their goal of locking Bowman into the championship, but Larson was absolutely not going to push Preece or Jones into the lead.

Period.

“He got me out of shape pretty good the lap before and then just really out shape, all but wrecked,” Jones said. “I mean, wrecked to the left and kind of gathered it up and then he shoved me again and hooked me to the right, and saved that again.

“I’ve never raced with Kyle a lot on the speedways but I was working really well with everybody else before that, and they had no problems knowing how to push, so I think Kyle knows how to push and you know it seemed a little aggressive.”

Erik Jones, Legacy Motor Club Toyota

Photo by: James Gilbert / Getty Images

When told that Larson set Preece up in a bad spot too, Jones still didn’t like the level of aggression.

“I mean, I was aware of the situation but that is definitely putting a lot of faith in my hands,” Jones added. “I’m not just going to wad up the whole field too. I mean, he had me pretty spun around on the straightaway so either he thinks I’m really good or he is just trying to shove me and help me out.

“I don’t know. I need to ask him.”

Almost a fairytale ending for Custer and Haley

NASCAR Cup photo finish with Ryan Blaney winning

Photo by: Chris Graythen – Getty Images

Less aggravated and more happy to be here with a chance to win was Custer and Haley. They are both in the 30s in the championship standings and just seemed to be pleased to be in the picture at the finish line.

Custer was downright exuberant upon climbing out of the car.

“Yeah, at the end of the day, we had a shot to win and that’s all you can really ask for at these plate races, you know,” Custer said. “You’re always going to look back and wish you did something different but at the end of the day all you can do it hope to be up there and have a shot at it and make the moves that you’re dealt with.”

That isn’t to say Custer and Haley both didn’t immediately start picking apart their race because they did but at least they had something to second guess.

The likes of Kyle Busch, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Noah Gragson and Carson Hocevar all fell out early due to crashes or mechanical failures.

And despite the first stage crash that eliminated Busch, Stenhouse and Gragson, and the desperation that should have caused so much more chaos, everyone who needed to win drove relatively cautious.

Blaney had a good view of everyone racing with that respect on his way through the top-10 in the final laps.

“The biggest one I saw tonight was probably Justin Haley on Cole, but that’s — I thought that was fine,” Blaney said. “It is what it is. It didn’t cause a wreck. They got through it. It cleared the way for me.

“Yeah, I thought they raced really smart and well and didn’t throw their cars in any foolish situations. I thought everyone did a great job of having a great race but also keeping it clean as well.

“I think props to everybody where you didn’t have a guy that needed to win that was just the absolute hammer out there. They were really, really respectful of everybody else, and it was a good race.”

It’s even better when you’re the winner and someone owes you seven million beers.