Many of the same teams and coaches who consistently won in college basketball before the Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) era — which began July 1, 2021 — have unsurprisingly continued to thrive in the NIL era. Think Mark Few at Gonzaga or Bill Self at Kansas. A handful of coaches have shown their ability to recruit and run elite programs regardless of circumstance.
But not all of them.
The contrast in success between eras has been starker for some than for others. The NIL era has blunted some programs’ success or, in some cases, significantly diminished it. On the flip side, other coaches and programs have surged thanks to improved access to resources and a more level playing field.
Take the following data as an example. Gonzaga, Kansas and Duke — each of which posted a winning percentage of 80% or higher from the 2000-01 season through 2020-21 — stood apart from the rest of the sport during that stretch.
The chart below, sorted by winning percentage, shows that over a 20-year span, only four teams won 75% or more of their games. (Data courtesy of Stathead.)
| 1 | Gonzaga | 720 | 604 | 116 | 83.9 |
| 2 | Kansas | 748 | 611 | 137 | 81.7 |
| 3 | Duke | 741 | 599 | 142 | 80.8 |
| 4 | Kentucky | 736 | 556 | 180 | 75.5 |
| 5 | North Carolina | 744 | 538 | 206 | 72.3 |
| 6 | Memphis | 722 | 522 | 200 | 72.3 |
| 7 | Arizona | 713 | 512 | 201 | 71.8 |
| 8 | Michigan State | 729 | 523 | 206 | 71.7 |
| 9 | Villanova | 710 | 508 | 202 | 71.5 |
| 10 | Louisville | 711 | 507 | 204 | 71.3 |
| 11 | Florida | 724 | 512 | 212 | 70.7 |
| 12 | Syracuse | 727 | 512 | 215 | 70.4 |
| 13 | Wisconsin | 712 | 501 | 211 | 70.4 |
| 14 | BYU | 697 | 487 | 210 | 69.9 |
| 15 | VCU | 696 | 486 | 210 | 69.8 |
| 16 | Ohio State | 716 | 499 | 217 | 69.7 |
| 17 | Xavier | 697 | 485 | 212 | 69.6 |
| 18 | Utah State | 690 | 480 | 210 | 69.6 |
| 19 | Murray State | 663 | 456 | 207 | 68.8 |
| 20 | San Diego State, Belmont | 694, 670 | 477, 460 | 217, 210 | 68.7 |
That tide has turned in the NIL era. While we only have four seasons worth of data, 11 teams — nearly triple the rate of the pre-NIL era for the preceding two decades — have won 75% or more of their games during that time. Of those 11, four — Gonzaga, Drake, Saint Mary’s and Grand Canyon — hail from outside the major conference structure.
Teams like Vermont, North Texas, VCU Charleston and UAB have all posted winning percentages above 70%.
| 1 | Houston | 152 | 132 | 20 | 86.8 |
| 2 | Duke | 150 | 121 | 29 | 80.7 |
| 3 | Gonzaga | 139 | 112 | 27 | 80.6 |
| 4 | Purdue | 147 | 116 | 31 | 78.9 |
| 5 | Drake | 141 | 111 | 30 | 78.7 |
| 6 | Saint Mary’s | 138 | 108 | 30 | 78.3 |
| 7 | UConn | 147 | 115 | 32 | 78.2 |
| 8 | Arizona | 145 | 112 | 33 | 77.2 |
| 9 | Auburn | 141 | 108 | 33 | 76.6 |
| 10 | Grand Canyon | 136 | 103 | 33 | 75.7 |
| 11 | Tennessee | 145 | 109 | 36 | 75.2 |
| 12 | Kansas | 144 | 106 | 38 | 73.6 |
| 13 | Vermont | 136 | 100 | 36 | 73.5 |
| 14 | San Diego State | 139 | 102 | 37 | 73.4 |
| 15 | North Texas | 140 | 102 | 38 | 72.9 |
| 16 | VCU | 140 | 101 | 39 | 72.1 |
| 17 | Alabama | 144 | 103 | 41 | 71.5 |
| 18 | Memphis, Charleston | 139 | 99 | 36 | 71.2 |
| 19 | UAB | 146 | 103 | 43 | 70.5 |
| 20 | North Carolina | 146 | 101 | 45 | 69.2 |
The sample is small and the landscape is continuously shifting, so it’s hard to draw sweeping conclusions about the NIL era and its impact on the sport. But it’s not so hard to at least glean a few things from the data above, and speculate about what it means in the present and what it portends for the future of college basketball.
Here are my takeaways.
1. Cinderella is not dead
Everyone was ready to sound the alarm bells in March when — for the first time since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975 — every team in the Sweet 16 field was represented by a major conference. But reports of the death of Cinderella are far too premature.
From 2000-21, 20 of of the 50 winningest Division I teams hailed from non-major conferences. (That includes Gonzaga and BYU, neither of which I would have nor do count as mid-majors.) Since then, that number is up to 29.
2. Disparity arising at mid-major level
At one point, there was notable parity between mid-major and high-major programs — and perhaps there still is to a degree — but the gap in winning percentages between the two groups has narrowed considerably. Increasingly, however, the disparity among mid-majors lies between programs with resources and those without.
Drake, for instance, owns the fifth-highest winning percentage in the NIL era among all Division I teams. That success has been anchored by strong coaching hires — first Darian DeVries, and more recently Ben McCollum — and marks a sharp upward trend for a program that, before the NIL era, ranked in the bottom third of the Missouri Valley Conference in winning percentage. (Creighton left the MVC after the 2012-13 season, and Wichita State departed following 2016-17.)
Drake’s winning percentage since 2021 is more than 10 percentage points higher than the third-most successful program in the conference and nearly 50 percentage points better than Evansville — which has the most losses in the league over that span. Compared to the pre-NIL era, the gap between the top and bottom of the MVC has only grown.
Highest win % among MVC teams pre-NIL/post-NIL
| 1 | Creighton | 70.6% | Drake | 78.7% |
| 2 | Wichita State | 68.4% | Loyola Chicago | 75.8% |
| 3 | Loyola Chicago | 61.9% | Bradley | 67.4% |
| 4 | Northern Iowa | 59.1% | Belmont | 64.3% |
| 5 | Southern Illinois | 56.8% | Indiana State | 58.0% |
| 6 | Missouri State | 54.0% | Northern Iowa | 56.2% |
| 7 | Illinois State | 53.5% | Southern Illinois | 55.8% |
| 8 | Drake | 48.5% | Missouri State | 50.4% |
| 9 | Bradley | 47.1% | Murray State | 46.4% |
| 10 | Indiana State | 46.8% | Illinois State | 45.9% |
| 11 | Valparaiso | 46.1% | Illinois-Chicago | 42.7% |
| 12 | Evansville | 44.2% | Valparaiso | 36.2% |
| 13 | — | Evansville | 30.2% |
This is not just a cherry-picked sample from one league. Here’s the Mountain West below. (Note: Boise State joined in 2011-12; Fresno State and Nevada joined in 2012-13; San Jose State and Utah State joined in 2013-14. Utah and BYU left after 2010-11 and TCU left after 2011-12.)
SDSU, Boise State and Utah State have won more than 71% of their games during the NIL era. Not even the most winningest MWC team in the preceding two decades met that mark. That has come at the expense of rapidly declining success among teams like Air Force and Fresno State, both of which dropped off by at least 15%.
Highest win % among Mountain West teams pre-NIL/post-NIL
| Rank | Pre-NIL (2000-2020 seasons) | Win % | Post-NIL | Win % |
| 1 | BYU | 70.8% | San Diego State | 73.4% |
| 2 | San Diego State | 68.7% | Boise State | 71.2% |
| 3 | UNLV | 61.9% | Utah State | 71.0% |
| 4 | Nevada | 61.4% | Colorado State | 66.9% |
| 5 | Boise State | 61.1% | New Mexico | 64.2% |
| 6 | Utah State | 61.1% | Nevada | 59.5% |
| 7 | New Mexico | 60.8% | UNLV | 58.0% |
| 8 | Utah State | 60.6% | Wyoming | 47.3% |
| 9 | Fresno State | 55.4% | San Jose State | 39.8% |
| 10 | Colorado State | 52.5% | Fresno State | 39.4% |
| 11 | Wyoming | 51.5% | Air Force | 30.6% |
| 12 | Air Force | 46.3% | — | |
| 13 | TCU | 40.5% | — | |
| 14 | San Jose State | 22.1% | — |
And just for giggles here’s the CAA. Pre-NIL, only two teams from 2000-01 through 2020-21 had winning percentages below 40%. Since 2021-22, that number has more than tripled — with Stony Brook, Northeastern, Monmouth, Elon, Hampton, William & Mary and North Carolina A&T all below win percentages of 40%. This league is a particularly interesting case study in the impact of NIL because of how big a leap Towson, James Madison, Delaware and UNC-Wilmington have made in the league’s hierarchy.
Highest win % among CAA teams pre-NIL/post-NIL
| Rank | Pre-NIL (2000-2020 seasons) | Win % | Post-NIL | Win % |
| 1 | Richmond | 75.9% | Charleston | 73.3% |
| 2 | VCU | 69.9% | UNC-Wilmington | 72.8% |
| 3 | George Mason | 64.6% | Towson | 65.7% |
| 4 | Old Dominion | 60.4% | Hofstra | 60.9% |
| 5 | Charleston | 56.9% | Drexel | 55.6% |
| 6 | Hofstra | 54.7% | Delaware | 54.0% |
| 7 | Northeastern | 53.7% | James Madison | 51.7% |
| 8 | Drexel | 50.0% | Campbell | 45.3% |
| 9 | UNC-Wilmington | 49.3% | Stony Brook | 39.0% |
| 10 | William & Mary | 45.7% | Northeastern | 38.4% |
| 11 | Elon | 45.3% | Monmouth | 38.4% |
| 12 | Delaware | 44.2% | Elon | 37.2% |
| 13 | James Madison | 42.1% | Hampton | 34.7% |
| 14 | Georgia State | 40.0% | William & Mary | 34.6% |
| 15 | Towson | 39.4% | North Carolina A&T | 28.1% |
| 16 | American | 25.9% | — |
3. The recipe to success in NIL era
Great college coaches can transcend situation and find ways to win — and win big — and that seems to be the throughline for many programs regardless of era. Of the 10 winningest teams from the 2000-21 seasons, six had coaches who raked in top-10 salaries per USA Today data collected in 2020.
A seventh, Gonzaga-led Mark Few, is among the most successful coaches in college basketball history. An eighth school, Memphis, was led previously by one of those coaches who landed elsewhere (John Calipari). A ninth school, Arizona, was led by one of the highest-paid coaches (Sean Miller) before scandal late in his tenure. A tenth school, Louisville, was also led by one of the highest-paid coaches who was also wrought with scandal before his ouster in 2021.
Compare that to the current NIL landscape and the ratio of high level success and high level coaching is nearly 1:1. Of the twelve winningest schools in the NIL era, at least five are coached by those with salaries in the top 10 in the sport.
One gigantic takeaway here: Kelvin Sampson is far and away the most underpaid and underappreciated coach in all of college athletics and it is not all that close.
Wins since 2021
| School | Win % | Coach salary rank |
| Houston | 86.8 | 16 |
| Duke | 80.7 | Private school |
| Gonzaga | 80.6 | Private school |
| Purdue | 78.9 | 13 |
| Drake | 78.7 | Private school |
| Saint Mary’s | 78.3 | 70 |
| UConn | 78.2 | 3 |
| Arizona | 77.2 | 9 |
| Auburn | 76.6 | 6 |
| Grand Canyon | 75.7 | 68 |
| Tennessee | 75.2 | 7 |
| Kansas | 73.6 | 1 |
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