How many 2025-26 Premier League title contenders are there? Why it may be a minimum of four

The odds prior to Week 1 of the 2024-25 season essentially said that the Premier League would be won by either Manchester City, Arsenal, or Liverpool, barely looking beyond those three.

And, really, they fancied Man City (+120) and Arsenal (+175) to earn the Premier League Trophy quite a bit more than eventual winners Liverpool (+800), who were bedding in a new manager.

Everyone else was a bonafide long shot, as fourth-ranked Chelsea were a wild +1600 and no other team looked better than +2500.

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This season, it’s already looking quite different. All three of those sides are suitably reinforced and Chelsea have claimed the Club World Cup. To wit, the oddsmakers put four teams at +900 or better; The Blues lag a bit but Liverpool, Arsenal, and Man City are all within shouting distance of each other.

It feels at the moment like all of those teams don’t need to call it a dream to win the Premier League, especially given the reinforcements secured in the transfer market and the return to health of some key pieces. Florian Wirtz, Viktor Gyokeres, Joao Pedro, Rayan Cherki, Martin Zubimendi, Hugo Ekitike, Liam Delap, and Tijjani Reijnders are just the tip of the iceberg.

Oh, and Man City get a Ballon d’Or winner back.

None of these teams got worse, and were the four-best performing teams in terms of most metrics including possession and fewest goals conceded during the 2024-25 Premier League season.

So, barring a brilliant turn by an outsider, do we really have the makings of a four-team title fight? There appear to be no glaring weaknesses on these lineups.

And then again, maybe we should consider what could happen with Thomas Frank taking hold of a Europa League-winning Spurs, Aston Villa and Newcastle delivering consistency under long-standing coaches, or Ruben Amorim having a full preseason with a very expensive team. Yet for now…

Let’s start with four.

Liverpool

They won it last season and most players in the squad will have a full year of Arne Slot under their belts. The tragic death of Diogo Jota, the exit of Trent Alexander-Arnold, and transfer of Luis Diaz are all significant losses. The club have now also forfeited the ability to complain about spending after breaking the British transfer record for the wonderful Florian Wirtz and potentially doing it again to hire Alexander Isak away from Newcastle. Their other actions in the market show a side that wants to develop top talent but will no longer bank on the potential of the Curtis Jones and Harvey Elliotts of the world. They’ve added two world-class full backs in Milos Kerkez and Jeremie Frimpong, added an electric forward in Hugo Ekitike, and have talent for days on the bench.

Biggest argument against a Liverpool repeat: Only Mo Salah played in more games than Diaz, who was the Reds’ third-leading scorer with 17 goals. Jota was fourth with nine. Frimpong and Kerkez are very, very good but are bedding into a new system and the Reds will be tested in August.

Manchester City

A surprising record against Big Six teams last year and their humbling at the Club World Cup versus Al Hilal are very real things, but so was playing almost an entire season without perhaps the most indispensable player to Pep Guardiola’s system in the form of Rodri. The addition of Rayan Ait-Nouri immediately fixes a problem spot and allows Josko Gvardiol — perhaps the club’s player of last season — to stay inside where he can be joined by Ruben Dias or Manuel Akanji amongst others. Tijjani Reijnders’ advanced stats comparables are names like Odegaard, Bellingham, and Baena, but the one that should most excite City fans is Gundogan. A full preseason in Pep’s system for Omar Marmoush is nice and a bounce back for Phil Foden is expected while healthy Erling Haaland equals at least 3-4 more wins, but the big addition here is Rayan Cherki. We spoke of comparables for Reijnders, but how about Cherki’s — Ousmane Dembele, Florian Wirtz, Vinicius Junior, Michael Olise, Cole Palmer. It does take some players a full year to adapt to Guardiola’s demands, so that concern remains at the Etihad.

Biggest argument against a Man City title: We know City are going to produce chances but they were open at the back and Rodri is coming back from a major injury. New pieces do take time to assimilate into Guardiola’s system and there are questions about right back. Far-be-it from us to question Pep’s judgment but Rico Lewis and friends did not get it done at the back last season. Lewis is, however, not even 21.

Arsenal

To some, Arsenal just won’t be labeled a title favorite until they stay atop the table after Week 38. We get that. Club reputations and histories can sometimes heap a burden on teams that defy the sum of their parts. But this team? Wow. There might be questions about the ceilings of two prongs of their attacks but there are certainly not weaknesses. Viktor Gyokeres’ transfer fee asks a lot of him but the fact remains that even adequate production from the center forward spot — 17-20 goals — should be enough given the complete nature of the Arsenal midfield. The club also hasn’t settled on the hope that Gabriel Martinelli might take the next step or Kai Havertz has his most consistent Premier League season on the other side of Bukayo Saka. Noni Madueke’s been brought in and

Biggest argument against an Arsenal title: They haven’t done it yet and Mikel Arteta hasn’t been world class when it comes to squad rotation. Gyokeres is prolific and there’s every reason to think he’ll do quite well but, hey, maybe the Premier League is a bridge too far?

Chelsea

This will likely sound a little out there, but Chelsea may have the fewest weaknesses in the division and so far have only lost one significant player in the excellent Noni Madueke. However, the Club World Cup gave Enzo Maresca an extended look at some of his options to offset that loss. Jamie Gittens and Estevao are the relative unknowns while Joao Pedro and Liam Delap know the division. And that’s without two-time double-digit PL goals scorer Nicolas Jackson. At the moment, their depth is exceptional. And Maresca has really firmed up his reputation this season. The fullback and midfield unit is spectacular, with the first player off the bench in each group a bonafide star on many other teams.

Biggest argument against a Chelsea title: Robert Sanchez is often cited as a weakness — or at least as someone who could well be upgraded by Chelsea — though he was solid at the Club World Cup. Chelsea are solid at every position but are Trevoh Chalobah, Levi Colwill, and Co. going to take their center backs position to a Premier League title level? They have won the Club World Cup, but that was not a 38-game odyssey. Also, Noni Madueke was genuinely one of their best performers last season.