Fantasy football draft season is about maximizing value and avoiding traps. Using Yahoo’s ADP for 10-team leagues, let’s walk through the rounds and highlight the picks I’m avoiding at cost. Some of these names are big, some are smaller, but every one comes with more risk than reward.
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Round 1: Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
In Round 1, you’re not making “bad” picks. These are your elite potential outcome guys — but even the best have question marks. Ja’Marr Chase is chasing history off a triple crown run, and nobody repeats those. Jahmyr Gibbs is in an offense without Ben Johnson. Justin Jefferson is catching passes from essentially a rookie quarterback. Christian McCaffrey is coming off a season where he couldn’t stay healthy.
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Then there’s Saquon Barkley. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a monster and the centerpiece of Philly’s new-look offense. I can give you a million reasons why he’s different, why he can handle that type of usage and still dominate. But historically, running backs who see this kind of workload struggle to repeat it. Barkley is being drafted in the top three almost everywhere, and that’s asking you to pay for absolute peak output two years in a row. Even if he produces, the odds are tilted against him matching that investment. That makes him the riskiest pick at cost in Round 1.
Round 2: De’Von Achane, RB, Dolphins
De’Von Achane’s highlight reel is ridiculous. The speed, the burst, the angles he erases — he’s as fun as it gets. But fantasy football isn’t just about splash plays. At 5’9” and 190 pounds, Achane is already dealing with calf issues before the season even kicks off. That’s the exact type of soft-tissue injury that lingers, and when your entire game is built on explosiveness, that risk is magnified.
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The Dolphins also drafted Ollie Gordon II, and they’re not going to keep that dude on ice forever. Miami has to protect QB Tua Tagovailoa, and that means leaning on a rotation that doesn’t force Achane into 20 touches a game. As much as I love the player, paying Round 2 capital for someone already banged up and fighting for volume is a tough click.
Round 3: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
A.J. Brown is a top-five talent at wide receiver. That isn’t in question. The issue is the direction of Philadelphia’s offense. With Barkley in town and Jalen Hurts still running at a high clip, the Eagles are about to pound the ball more than they ever have. This isn’t going to be a pass-heavy unit, and when you start lowering the target ceiling, Brown’s path to elite production gets tighter.
Add in the fact that DeVonta Smith isn’t going anywhere, and you’re left banking on unsustainably high efficiency to justify a third-round pick. Brown will still have big weeks — he’s too good not to — but if you’re drafting him here you’re hoping for perfection in a lower-volume environment. That’s not the bet I want to make.
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Round 4: Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
Garrett Wilson is one of the best young wideouts in football. He wins routes, he earns targets, he can play anywhere. The problem is the setup. Justin Fields is now his quarterback, and as much as we love Fields’ rushing upside, he’s never been a high-volume or efficient passer. Add in head coach Aaron Glenn’s clear desire to establish the run, and the Jets are shaping up to be one of the lowest passing-volume teams in the league.
Wilson will still get his, but paying a fourth-round price in what could be the least productive pass game in football? That’s not how you build a winner. If Fields takes a leap, great. But that’s a huge if, and one I’m not paying for at cost.
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Round 5: Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions
Sam LaPorta burst onto the scene in 2023 as a rookie, finishing as the TE3 and looking like the next great fantasy tight end. But the reality is he came back down to earth in 2024 with a dip in production, yet his price tag hasn’t budged. He’s still being drafted in Round 5 like you’re paying for that rookie-year magic, and that’s a premium I’m not willing to pay. Detroit’s offense still leans heavily on Gibbs and David Montgomery in the run game, and they added another pass catcher in rookie Isaac TeSlaa to go with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. LaPorta is going to have weeks, but there’s more competition now than there was when he first broke out.
For me, the top-three tight ends are George Kittle, Trey McBride and Brock Bowers. After those guys, I just don’t want to pay up. LaPorta is still a very good player, but in this spot, you’re locking yourself into a bet that he bounces back to elite form while fighting for targets in a crowded offense. That’s not the type of risk I want in the fifth round when I can build out my roster elsewhere and find usable tight end production later.
Round 6: Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens
Zay Flowers is electric. He’ll give you some monster weeks and make plays that remind you why he went in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. But Baltimore’s offense doesn’t flow through him. This is still Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry’s show. Mark Andrews is the main pass-catching weapon, and now the Ravens added DeAndre Hopkins while extending Rashod Bateman. That’s a lot of competition for looks in a run-heavy scheme.
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Flowers will flash, and his highlight games will pop. But paying sixth-round capital for a wideout stuck behind Andrews, Hopkins and even Bateman in some games caps your ceiling. You’re drafting a player who will help the Ravens win, but not necessarily help you win consistently in fantasy. I’d rather swing on a receiver tied to more volume or a back who could steal a starting gig.
Round 7: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Steelers
Kaleb Johnson has upside. He was productive at Iowa and has the size-speed combo to eventually be a difference-maker. But in Pittsburgh, the path isn’t clear. Jaylen Warren is the starter, Kenneth Gainwell is the trusted vet and both are ahead of Johnson in terms of readiness right now. This is shaping up to be a three-man committee, and rookie backs in committees rarely pay off early.
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The Steelers offense also isn’t one I’m dying to invest in. If they’re stuck in the middle tier of scoring again, it’s hard to see Johnson giving you anything more than occasional flex weeks. He’s a stash for the future, not a player you want to be banking on in Year 1.
Round 8: Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
Joe Mixon is a hard no. The foot injury has no timetable, and even if he does return, the efficiency has been gone for years. Houston’s offensive line isn’t built to bail him out, and there’s zero reason to expect a resurgence at this stage of his career.
Every season drafters convince themselves that Mixon’s slide is a gift. It isn’t. It’s a trap. The Round 8 pick you spend here will feel wasted by October. Don’t take the bait.
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Round 9: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, 49ers
Brian Robinson Jr. is a solid NFL back, but for fantasy, he’s as replaceable as they come. He’ll get some early-down work spelling McCaffrey, but the high-value touches — receptions, goal-line carries, two-minute drill snaps — are all CMC’s.
In the ninth round, you should be taking shots on upside. Robinson doesn’t have it. His floor is low, his ceiling is lower and his role is thin. Let someone else burn the pick.
Round 10: Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
Chris Godwin is the type of name value pick that looks smart in the draft room and feels terrible by Week 4. Reports already say he’ll miss at least four games, maybe 6-8. Even when he comes back, there’s no guarantee he’s the same guy after major surgery. Timing, explosiveness, separation — all of those traits can be compromised.
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And when he does return, Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t set up for him to dominate. First-round pick Emeka Egbuka is stepping in, Mike Evans is still there, Bucky Irving is in Year 2, and Baker Mayfield is already being circled as a regression candidate. There’s just too much standing between Godwin and meaningful fantasy production. At this stage, I’d rather take a healthy player who can help me stack wins early.
Round 11: Quinshon Judkins, RB, Browns
Quinshon Judkins has the name and the pedigree, but nothing else right now. He hasn’t even signed, and we’re less than two weeks from kickoff. The Browns are moving forward with Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford, and Judkins is sitting on the outside looking in.
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In Round 11, you need players who can actually give you usable weeks. Judkins isn’t that. You’re drafting a stash with no clear path to relevance this year. Save yourself the headache and move on.
Round 12: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Browns
Shedeur Sanders looked good in his preseason debut, but that doesn’t change reality. He’s the QB3 in Cleveland behind Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel. Fifth-round draft capital doesn’t guarantee snaps, and unless disaster strikes, Sanders isn’t seeing the field this year.
Dynasty stash? Sure. Redraft pick? Absolutely not. That roster spot is too valuable to waste.
Round 13: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Ravens
At this point in drafts you’re usually swinging on upside, but DeAndre Hopkins just doesn’t fit the bill anymore. Baltimore’s offense is going to run through Jackson and Henry on the ground, with Andrews, Flowers and Bateman handling most of the receiving load. Hopkins is, at best, the third or fourth option in the passing game, and at 33 years old, the ceiling just isn’t there.
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If I don’t want Flowers in Round 6, I really don’t want Hopkins in Round 13. This is a spot where I’d much rather throw a dart at Josh Palmer, or even take a veteran like Adam Thielen, who can still string together usable weeks. Hopkins is an all-timer, no question, but for 2025 fantasy football, he’s a pass.
Round 14: Darren Waller, TE, Dolphins
There’s always going to be that temptation to chase ghosts in fantasy football. For some, it’s remembering Darren Waller’s run as a dominant weapon with the then-Oakland Raiders. For others, it’s pointing to Jonnu Smith’s late-round success last year and talking yourself into Waller being “that guy” in 2025. The answer is no.
Waller is already banged up, limping into the season after not playing at all in 2024 and struggling the two years before that. The production hasn’t been there in a long time, and nothing about this version of him says “fantasy starter.” I’m all for waiting on a tight end, but don’t wait so long that you’re stuck in Waller territory. At that point in the draft, you’re better off taking a shot on a young TE with a pulse rather than betting on a comeback that isn’t coming.
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