The Heisman Trophy odds have shifted a lot since the start of the season. Texas quarterback Arch Manning entered Week 1 as the favorite, but after losing to Ohio State, he has seen his odds move from +600 to +1400. Is he still worth a bet at that number?
The three favorites at Caesars Sportsbook entering Week 3 are LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier (+700), Oklahoma QB John Mateer (+850) and Oregon QB Dante Moore (+1000).
Here is a look at how to approach the Heisman Trophy favorites and a player further down the odds board to bet now.
Heisman Trophy odds ahead of Week 3 (odds via Caesars)
Favorites
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU QB (+700)
Nussmeier was +700 entering the season, so we haven’t seen his odds shift much even after LSU’s win over Clemson. The Tigers have a tough schedule moving forward. If you like Nussmeier to win the Heisman, I’d bet him now.
Either one of two things will happen with LSU. They will drop a couple of games and Nussmeier’s Heisman campaign will be over, or the Tigers will keep winning and his odds will continue to get shorter. I actually think +650 is a good number for Nussmeier. If he plays well and LSU beats Florida on Saturday, you are probably looking at +600 or shorter next week.
John Mateer, Oklahoma QB (+850)
There is a lot of Heisman buzz surrounding Mateer, and we have seen his odds get cut in half since August. While I do think Mateer is interesting, Oklahoma has my toughest remaining schedule for the rest of the season.
The win over Michigan was big, but the Sooners still face Auburn, Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri and LSU. While that gives Mateer plenty of high-profile games to impress Heisman voters, I don’t see Oklahoma getting through that schedule without a couple of losses.
I will say this though: If Oklahoma finishes the season with just two losses against that killer schedule, the Sooners should be a lock for the College Football Playoff. In that scenario, Mateer will be in the Heisman discussion. However, I would wait on Mateer. I believe you will get better odds throughout the season after the Sooners lose a game.
Dante Moore, Oregon QB (+1000)
I’m a little confused by this one. Oregon rolled a really bad Oklahoma State team, and now Moore is the third favorite to win the Heisman Trophy? I’m not buying it.
Moore does look really good so far in Oregon’s offense, although the Ducks haven’t played anyone yet. He just rolled up big numbers against two overmatched opponents.
Oregon has one of the easiest schedules of any national championship contender. The Ducks don’t play Big Ten contenders Ohio State, Michigan or Illinois, and they host Indiana and USC. Moore’s Heisman fate really comes down to one game: Penn State on Sept. 27.
If Oregon wins that game and Moore plays well, the rest of the season sets up nicely for him to win the award. However, playing on the road at Happy Valley against the Nittany Lions’ defense is a tall order for a young quarterback. I like Penn State in that matchup, so it’s a pass for me on Moore at +1000.
Players to avoid
Arch Manning, Texas QB (+1400)
If Manning wins the award, there really should be an investigation. Arch struggled badly in his biggest test of the season at Ohio State. Yes, Texas still plays Oklahoma and Georgia, so Manning has opportunities to get back in the race. Still, will voters be able to forget his nightmare performance against the Buckeyes?
Arch has the name, narrative, and talent around him to take home the award. Having said that, he will need other top contenders to falter to win the Heisman. I’m not interested in Manning at these odds.
Devon Dampier, Utah QB (+1500)
I love Utah and Devon Dampier, but +1400 to win the Heisman? To put that into perspective, Dampier has shorter odds than players like Penn State QB Drew Allar (+1800) and Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1800).
When betting on the Heisman, I always ask myself one question, “Does this player have a realistic chance to win the award?” In Dampier’s case, a lot has to happen for him to win the Heisman, and there is no way I would bet him at +1500.
If you really like Dampier, I’m confident you will get better odds during the season. There is no reason to bet on him right now.
Bet to make now
Thomas Castellanos, Florida State QB (+2200)
In my preseason Heisman Trophy article, I gave out Castellanos as my favorite longshot bet at +6000. Castellanos had no room for error. He had to beat Alabama in Week 1, or his Heisman hopes were over. He cleared the first hurdle.
Looking ahead, Castellanos still has three high-profile games against Miami, Clemson and Florida. Assuming FSU doesn’t get upset in its other games, Castellanos would need to go 2-1 against those three opponents. That would likely put the Seminoles in the College Football Playoff and Castellanos right in the middle of the Heisman conversation.
I still see value on Castellanos at +2200. I like him a lot more than some players with shorter odds like Manning, Dampier and Moore. If you are looking to wager on the Heisman market right now, Castellanos is the bet to make.
Read the full article here