We didn’t see a major shift in the Heisman Trophy betting odds from last week, although there is a new co-favorite at the top of the oddsboard in Miami quarterback Carson Beck. Beck moved from +1100 to +550 and he is now tied for the shortest odds with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore.
The top four Heisman Trophy favorites at Caesars Sportsbook entering Week 7 are Moore (+550), Beck (+550), Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+700), and Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+750).
Here is a look at how to approach the Heisman Trophy favorites and players to bet before the Week 7 results.
Heisman Trophy Odds ahead of Week 7 (odds via Caesars)
Favorites
Dante Moore, Oregon QB (+550)
Moore moved from +1000 to +750 after he played well in the win over Penn State. I mentioned last week that +750 was probably the best odds you will get Moore with Oregon expected to be big favorites in the rest of its games.
Well, last week Moore didn’t even play and his odds dropped to +550. If the Ducks get by Indiana on Saturday, Moore will likely be the favorite the rest of the way and be in great position to win the award.
Carson Beck, Miami QB (+550)
Beck saw his odds drop from +1100 to +550 after Miami defeated Florida State. I have been saying for a while that Beck feels like a solid third place finisher and I’m not backing away from that statement even though he is now the co-favorite.
The problem with Beck is it’s only October and Miami played all of its tough games early in the season. The Hurricanes toughest remaining regular season game is at SMU. Beck might be worthy of the award but he isn’t a flashy pick and my concern is people will fall in love with another candidate.
Moore is in a similar position, although he is a more dynamic player because of his rushing stats. I would pass on Beck at this number. He’s having a great season but I think he comes up just short in the voting.
Ty Simpson, Alabama QB (+700)
Simpson’s Heisman odds continue to fall after Alabama defeated Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Alabama quarterback has seen his odds drop from +2200 to +700 in the last two weeks.
Alabama still has some challenging games left on the schedule for Simpson to pad his resume, starting this week with Missouri. If Alabama gets by the Tigers, there are still road tests at South Carolina and Auburn along with home games against Tennessee, Oklahoma and LSU.
I’m not sure Alabama will run the table with that schedule, so my recommendation is to pass on Simpson. If the Crimson Tide drop another game, he could be out. If they go unbeaten the rest of the way, I think it comes down to Simpson, Moore and maybe Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman.
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State WR (+750)
Smith is pound-for-pound the most dominant player in college football, so he is always a threat to win the award. Writers have also changed the way they vote for the Heisman Trophy in recent years with two receivers – DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter – winning the award since 2020.
Smith’s path to the Heisman comes down to games against Penn State and Michigan. If he dominates against both teams, Smith will be a Heisman finalist. The Michigan game is key because it’s the final week of the season with all the Heisman voters paying attention. I honestly believe Smith can win the award that day with a huge performance.
Last week I mentioned Smith’s odds hadn’t changed much throughout the season and I didn’t think we would get better than +1000. This week he dropped to +750 with two marquee games left. He is a serious threat to win the award.
Player to avoid
Julian Sayin, Ohio State QB (+1400)
We ran out of Big 12 quarterbacks to fade. Those were fun. Last week, Sam Leavitt was in this spot and he saw his odds move from +1900 to +4000. Some guys are really good players but don’t have a realistic chance to win the Heisman Trophy.
Let’s go to the Big Ten where I would avoid Sayin for a different reason. The reason is he plays with Smith, one of the Heisman favorites. It’s hard to see a scenario where Sayin overtakes Smith for the Heisman. The only way it happens is if Sayin has three or four huge games without Smith being much of a factor. That’s not likely.
I wouldn’t touch Sayin at +1400. I think his odds should be closer to +3000.
Bets to make now
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana QB (+1400)
The players I put in this section aren’t necessarily bets I am making personally. They are sometimes wagers based on timing. Mendoza falls into that category.
Mendoza became the favorite a couple of weeks ago after Indiana hammered Illinois and Mateer got injured. I mentioned at the time that was a massive overreaction and his odds have since settled where I believe they should be at +1400.
Mendoza is simple. If Indiana beats Oregon, he is the Heisman favorite come Sunday. If Indiana loses to the Ducks, he’s likely out of the running. If you think there is value on Mendoza to win the Heisman, this is the last week to bet him at decent value.
Beau Pribula, Missouri QB (+3000)
Pribula is in the same boat as Mendoza. Last week, I mentioned Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia in this section. If the Commodores had upset Alabama for the second straight season, Pavia’s odds of +2800 would have plummeted. That didn’t happen and now he is out.
The same thing is true for Pribula. No player in the country has more to gain on Saturday. If Missouri beats the Crimson Tide at home, Pribula goes from +3000 to around +700. If you think the Tigers can pull the upset, it makes sense to throw a few bucks on Pribula to win the Heisman at +3000.
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