Starting the season 1-3 isn’t the end of the world, but for a team with championship aspirations like the Milwaukee Bucks, it’s an uneasy beginning.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard still haven’t found their groove, and it’s clear this partnership needs more time — and help. Khris Middleton is still sidelined. The core is aging, the bench is weak, and the prospect pool is almost nonexistent. To make matters worse, the Bucks don’t control a single draft pick until 2031. And, oh yeah — Doc Rivers is the coach. Has the title window in Milwaukee quietly creaked shut?
I’d bet on yes, the Giannis Era Bucks will go down as one-and-done champions. And there’s nothing wrong with that by any means. Their 2021 title run was one for the ages with Giannis looking like he was going to be sidelined by a major injury only to return, dominate, and drop 50 points in the clincher.
Of course, there are no certainties in the NBA. Trades and surprises happen. Injuries occur. Just ask the 2019 Raptors.
The Giannis-Dame duo still has a chance to flourish. Statistically, they still rank highly when Giannis screens for Lillard. This is despite the fact that Giannis is a mediocre screener. He’ll often step into the defender and make light contact before slipping toward the rim, whereas Brook Lopez will make hard contact at an angle that gives Lillard a runway to the rim or space to get into his jumper. For now, Lopez sets almost double the number of screens for Lillard that Giannis does. So, Giannis must improve in this department and should prioritize this even if it means receiving fewer shots himself.
Milwaukee acquired Lillard for good reason. And after a down year, he now looks just as spry as he did during the 2022-23 season in Portland when he averaged career-highs with 32.2 points on 64.5% true shooting. At some point, the Bucks will probably get over .500, Giannis and Dame will have some standout performances, and Middleton will return. There will be a sense of optimism in Milwaukee, at least for a while.
The issue is just about everyone else on the roster. Without Middleton, the Bucks lack reliable shooting; they rank 18th in 3-point percentage and 23rd in attempts. And when Lopez isn’t on the floor, the Bucks’ defense falls apart. Sample sizes are small, but the Bucks go from a modest 112.1 defensive rating with Lopez to 122.3 with Bobby Portis. Portis will have five-minute stretches where he hits every shot, but it doesn’t make up for his inability to box out, his ball-stopping, and his blindfolded defensive awareness.
Jrue Holiday’s absence has left a void in perimeter defense and reliability that Milwaukee hasn’t been able to replace. Holiday’s trade for Lillard was meant to boost offense, but the team now feels exposed defensively. Gary Trent Jr. has bounced around for a reason; he is not the answer.
In Sunday’s Bucks loss to the Celtics, Boston had shooters at every position — Holiday included — while Milwaukee made only a fourth of its attempted triples. The difference in depth was put on display across the board. The Celtics have two of the NBA’s top backups at their respective positions in point guard Payton Pritchard, who they drafted and developed, and center Luke Kornet, who they acquired when he was only 25. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a wasteland of has-beens, busted draft picks, and unready youth.
Bucks general manager Jon Horst had a chance to surround Giannis with the right talent, but he’s whiffed. For years, Milwaukee has either traded away draft picks or opted for raw prospects with potential rather than immediate impact. Since Horst took over as GM in 2017, he’s drafted six players in the top 40:
-
DJ Wilson, 17th in 2017
-
Donte DiVincenzo, 17th in 2018
-
MarJon Beauchamp, 24th in 2022
-
Andre Jackson, 36th in 2023
-
AJ Johnson, 23rd in 2024
-
Tyler Smith, 33rd in 2024
DiVincenzo is a hit, though he didn’t pan out until after the Bucks traded him for an old, fading Serge Ibaka. Jackson still has potential, but his shaky jumper makes him a challenge to play next to Giannis.
But the following players were drafted in the first round after Wilson: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White, and Josh Hart. All six of them remain productive players. Wilson plays for the Shanghai Sharks.
And the Johnson pick in the 2024 draft is one of the most puzzling choices in recent memory. Johnson is 167 pounds. He averaged 2.9 points last year on 42% true shooting in Australia. He is two years away from being two years away. Yet the Bucks — a team with a 36-year-old center, a 34-year-old point guard, a 33-year-old 2-guard, and a soon-to-be 30-year-old face of the franchise — opted to wait on the slim chance he ever turns into something. Meanwhile, more NBA-ready rookies were still on the board, like Suns forward Ryan Dunn, who’s one of the best defenders to enter the NBA in recent memory and making over 40% of his 3s so far.
Horst was instrumental in building a championship team around Giannis, acquiring Lopez, Jrue Holiday, and P.J. Tucker, and firing Jason Kidd and hiring Mike Budenholzer. But a GM who went all-in for a title now faces the costs of win-now decisions when his margin moves haven’t worked out. Trading away every pick until 2031 leaves them depleted of assets for the trade deadline, and no young players have value for needle-moving acquisitions either. In the years since winning it all, he’s fallen short on every draft pick, striking out on every swing in the late second round and undrafted phase (though, AJ Green is a hustler). And other decisions have not panned out, whether it was DiVincenzo-for-Ibaka, five second-rounders for washed-up Jae Crowder, or hiring Adrian Griffin, and firing him only to hire Doc.
Rivers will likely become the scapegoat if the team keeps stumbling. And in some ways, that’s fair. This system feels old and sluggish. There’s a lack of spirit as well. On one hand, how much can any coach do with an aging core, few assets, and a depleted bench? On the other hand, even the best roster can flounder under the wrong coach. Just ask the Magic, Celtics, and Clippers about Doc’s track record with three blown 3-1 leads and five blown 3-2 leads. But right now, the Bucks need to worry about winning games before thinking about winning playoff series.
This season is about more than wins for the Bucks. It’s about proving they’re still title contenders — and showing Giannis they’re worth his loyalty.
Read the full article here