It’s been a roller coaster of a season for the Vegas Golden Knights.
They acquired Mitch Marner in the offseason. They entered the Olympic Break leading the Pacific Division. Then, just 52 days later, they fired head coach Bruce Cassidy and replaced him with John Tortorella. But despite all the chaos, they officially punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a 3-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche last night.
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There is still much to be determined. Per hockeystats.com, the Golden Knights still have five potential round one opponents with less than a week remaining in the regular season. However, a frontrunner is finally emerging from the rest of the pack.
Let’s take a look at the Golden Knights’ five potential playoff opponents and run the numbers.
The Golden Knights’ Potential Round 1 Opponents, per hockey stats.com
Matchup Probability: 64%
Record: 1-2
Scoring Edge: 10-5, Mammoth
In their second year as a Salt Lake City-based franchise, the Mammoth clinched a playoff berth. The Pacific Division isn’t settled yet, but the Mammoth are locked into WC1 and set to play the winner. They’re a fast, versatile team with high offensive upside and a new mammoth-themed fanboni titled the ‘Zammoth.’
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While the Golden Knights are certainly the more experienced of the two teams, the Mammoth are young and hungry with something to prove. They’ve also gotten hot at the right time with a five-game winning streak, where they outscored their opponents 30-18 and boasted a power play with a 39.1% success rate.
Matchup Probability: 17%
Record: 0-1-2
Scoring Edge: 12-9, Ducks
Right now, the Ducks look increasingly vulnerable. They’re fresh off a six-game losing streak and are 1-5-1 in their last seven games. During that six-game losing streak, they were outscored 29-15. The Ducks have a very young core, which is something a team of seasoned veterans could take advantage of.
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On the other hand, Anaheim also has Joel Quenneville behind the bench. Quenneville is the second-winningest coach in NHL history, with three Stanley Cups to his name. And he’s certainly had success with young teams before.
Matchup Probability: 11%
Record: 1-2-1
Scoring Edge: 13-13
On paper, the Oilers look like the easiest of the three most likely playoff matchups. Their depth scoring is streaky, and their penalty kill is below average. And after downgrading in net, their goaltending might be even worse than it has been in recent years.
But at the end of the day, Connor McDavid is Connor McDavid. And injured or not, Leon Draisaitl is still a top-five skater in the league. There’s also the fact that the Oilers would have home ice advantage. They have the edge in every single tiebreaker procedure.
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Matchup Probability: 8%
Record: 3-0-1
Scoring Edge: 18-13, Golden Knights
The Kings are a bit of a conundrum. Their -21 goal differential is the worst among all playoff hopefuls, and they set the NHL record this season for the most overtime appearances with 32. They have just 21 regulation wins; if not for their 19 overtime losses, they would likely be dead in the water.
But these Kings refuse to die. They’ve won four in a row and are 6-1-1 in their last eight games. The Golden Knights have had the Kings’ number this season, and would have an edge in a potential series. However, a team playing with house money is a dangerous team indeed. And if you couple that with this being Golden Knights-killer Anže Kopitar’s last season, well…
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Matchup Probability: 1%
Record: 1-1-1
Scoring Edge: 12-10, Avalanche
The Avalanche are the least likely playoff opponents for the Golden Knights, and that’s probably how they like it. Presidents’ Trophy curse or not, the Avalanche are the best team in the NHL this season. They lead the league in goals scored and fewest goals allowed, and boast the #1-ranked penalty kill.
The Golden Knights won their final meeting against the Avalanche, but Colorado was without Nazem Kadri and Cale Makar. Simply put, this is a matchup that the Golden Knights should hope to avoid.
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