The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (37-33-2) at the Chicago Blackhawks (27-33-13)
The Time: 7:00 PM EDT
The Broadcast: TV — MSGSN, NHLN; Radio — Devils Hockey Network
Effectively Eliminated
The New Jersey Devils were keeping their playoff hopes at least somewhat alive over the past couple weeks, winning most of their games. However, key losses to the Washington Capitals and last night’s collapse to the Carolina Hurricanes all but eliminated them from playoff contention. It is not quite a mathematical truth yet, as only the New York Rangers have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but it is too much of a hill to climb at this point. The most points the Devils can now finish with is 96 if they won each of their final 10 games, and there are currently four teams, spanning from seventh place (Penguins) to 10th place (Senators) with 86 to 88 points at this current moment. All of those teams can still hit 100 points, and only two of them will make the playoffs. Even the 11th and 12th place Flyers and Capitals can still reach the playoffs if three of those teams have a terrible end to the season. But the New Jersey Devils? They made their bed and now will have to lie in it.
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I will have more to say in a future post-mortem article on this season, but it got me thinking last night: never let anyone tell you that a loss in November or December won’t make or break the season. And while this is a pervasive attitude among fans, that games late matter more than games early in the season (they don’t), it’s also terrible to see similar attitudes among players. And frankly, I think there were too many players on the Devils who were too comfortable with giving up a loss in the first half of the season with the mind that it doesn’t determine the whole season. Losing a game is fine, but losing efforts are not, and I think we all know that too many players gave losing efforts throughout the season until about a month ago.
The Blackhawks Are Worse…Much Worse
The Devils are not a bad team, though. The Blackhawks are a bad team. They are very likely to win the first overall pick for Gavin McKenna this summer. And if you are watching the standings for that, you might actually want the Devils to win tonight, hurting their own draft position. They are tied with the New York Rangers at 67 points through 73 games for the second-worst point totals in the league, ahead of only the truly rotten Vancouver Canucks. But what makes the Rangers more respectable than the Blackhawks is that the Rangers play in the Eastern Conference. In case you have not noticed by now, the league parity appears very well and good. But the conference parity has been flushed down the toilet and is now clogging the sewers under league headquarters. I might expect a team with 67 points in the West to have more like 55 points in the East. In total, there are 11 teams in the East with true winning records (i.e. not “NHL .500”) and 11 teams that have a winning record in regulation. In the West, the Edmonton Oilers just won their 28th game in regulation to become the fourth team to at least be breakeven in the first 60 minutes, with only three teams (Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota) having a winning record in regulation.
I will have more to say about conference parity in a future article, but it is important to note that the Blackhawks are a terrible team in one of the worst conferences I can ever remember staining an NHL season.
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The Blackhawks have two scorers with more than 40 points in Tyler Bertuzzi (53 in 70) and Connor Bedard (67 in 60). If those two do not score, the Blackhawks are all but certain to lose their games. They lost 6-1 to the Rangers two nights ago and 5-1 to the Flyers in their matchup the night before. They have the 30th-ranked offense in all situations (2.51 goals per 60) and the 25th-ranked all situations defense (3.16 goals against per 60).
That’s actually an overperformance of their expected numbers.
Their 2.58 expected goals for per 60 ranks 32nd in the league: dead last. Their 3.46 expected goals against per 60 ranks 27th in the league. Reducing the situations to five-on-five only makes things worse, with their total offense improving to 26th in the league while their defense slips to 28th in the league, with their expected rates sitting still at 32nd for offense (2.22 xGF/60) and their expected five-on-five defense sitting dead-last at 32nd with a flat 3.0 expected five-on-five goals against per 60. The Devils, by comparison, are sitting at 2.58 xGF and 2.65 xGA per 60 at five-on-five. It’s a true chasm between a Devils team we are frustrated with and a truly bad team.
But this is the NHL, and truly bad teams are still full of (mostly) NHL players. If the Devils are wallowing too much from yesterday evening, the Blackhawks can catch them sleeping and take a victory, giving the Rangers second-position for the Draft Lottery. This is especially true since the solid young goaltender Spencer Knight will be in net for Chicago, with his .908 save percentage and three shutouts in 48 games this season. That trade, getting Knight with a first-round pick in exchange for Seth Jones, was really great work by Blackhawks General Manager Kyle Davidson. Now that these games really don’t matter to the Devils’ playoff hopes, it might be fun to see how a young, talented goaltender performs in net.
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Your Thoughts
What do you think of tonight’s game? How do you think the Devils will respond to their collapse in Carolina last night? What do you think of the Chicago Blackhawks? Can the Devils learn anything from a team that is truly in the basement? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.
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