Before crowning Texas quarterback and 2025 Heisman frontrunner Arch Manning as college football’s next great quarterback, a bigger sample size is needed, according to former Georgia signal-caller Aaron Murray. The SEC’s all-time leader in passing yards and touchdowns warned this week the hype surrounding Manning entering his first season as the Longhorns’ starter needs to be scaled back a bit.
Manning made three early-season appearances last fall, including a pair of starts following an injury to Quinn Ewers. As a redshirt freshman, Manning completed 50 of 72 passes for 806 yards and 10 total touchdowns.
“I am not sold like so many other people are that this guy is going to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, that he’s just going to be unbelievable,” Murray said this week on SiriusXM’s College Sports Channel with Dari Nowkhah. “That he’s going to be the next coming of Peyton and Eli, but that’s mobile. If you are so good, and everyone has you projected as the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft come 2026, why in the hell are you not playing above a seventh-round quarterback?”
Murray said Manning “doesn’t scream first-round talent” after watching his film and kept coming back to Ewers — the Longhorns’ 2024 starter — keeping his spot over the former five-star and top-ranked player in the 2023 recruiting cycle.
Manning is projected as No. 1 overall pick in one of CBS Sports’ latest 2026 NFL mocks and has been power-rated as a top-tier quarterbacks in various rankings entering the new campaign. DraftKings sportsbook has Manning as the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy (+700).
“If Steve Sarkisian knows what he’s doing and he knows how good their roster is, which I’ve talked to a lot of coaches and a lot of different teams and I asked them, like, what are the top rosters? Ohio, State, Texas, probably Georgia,” Murray said. “What was holding them back? Quinn Ewers. Why was Arch not playing? It’s like that rubs me the wrong way a little bit.”
Manning tends to agree with Murray’s assertion on the unwarranted praise this offseason.
Before the start of his third spring practice at Texas earlier this year, Manning said he was anxious to earn the respect of his teammates as a first-time starter and admitted he has received a ton of “undeserved attention” in the SEC despite his lack of snaps with the Longhorns.
“Hopefully it gets more deserving in the next few months, Manning told ESPN at the time. “I don’t think I’ve done enough yet to be taking a lot of pictures at restaurants and signing autographs. But maybe that’ll come eventually.”
Expectations are high for Manning at Texas, the only program nationally to make consecutive playoff semifinal appearances under Sarkisian. The program aims to capture its first national championship since 2005 this fall with a loaded roster, which was overhauled this offseason following a mass of exits to the NFL Draft.
Murray was a rare four-year starter for Mark Richt at Georgia from 2010 through the 2013 season. His 121 career touchdown passes in the most ever in the SEC and he twice led the league in single-season scoring tosses as a sophomore and junior.
A fifth-round pick of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2014, Murray served as a backup or practice squad player for several franchises over a four-year stretch before his NFL career ended with the Rams in 2017.
Following a brief stint with the Atlanta Legends of the now-defunct AAF and a cup of tea with the Tampa Bay Vipers of the XFL in 2019, Murray began his current career path as a college football analyst of sorts for various outlets.
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