Goalie volatility is as predictable as a wild Zubat encounter. Yes, a Pokémon simile. But there are no Gym Leaders to pull a Full Restore in fantasy hockey.
Nothing comes that easy. IYKYK.
As managers, we get caught in draft runs and panic-buy the illusion of safety, overreaching for a clear All-World Champion or the Elite Four. Yet even they can have weeks — or a season — where they look like a Magikarp.
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I’m talking to you, Connor Hellebuyck. Your Olympic gold medal is shiny. But your regular-season “splash” grounded the Jets and sank many fantasy teams.
Predicting NHL goaltending for fantasy is a crapshoot, which is why the smartest managers swing for offense and pick lower-round, hold-their-noses goalies. But that’s easier said than done when a draft run starts.
Let’s dive in.
Tier One: The All-World Champion
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay — The reigning Vezina winner stands alone. Vasilevskiy is the only twinetender with elite process numbers, the NHL’s top win total, and the longest sustainable peak since Martin Brodeur and Henrik Lundqvist. Sure, his workload has been heavy, but he’s the best. And the only goalie worth considering in the top two rounds.
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Tier Two: The Elite Four
All four of these men have delivered consistent, high-end stats over time, and they’re coming off seasons where their metrics were remarkably similar. They’re all workhorses.
Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers — Shesterkin will carry a heavy load on a bad team. His personal stats will be great, but he’ll have the fewest wins of this group.
Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders — Sorokin is a gem. He led the NHL last season with 452 high-danger saves and was runner-up for the Vezina.
Jeremy Swayman, Boston — Take out Swayman’s post-holdout underperformance in 2024-25, and you have a Vezina-caliber goalie on a playoff team.
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Logan Thompson, Washington — One predictive model said Thompson should have won the Vezina in 2025-26. He will be the last guy available in this group and deliver the best results.
Tier Three: Vezina-Caliber, But Coming Off An Off Year
Tier 3A
Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg (or wherever) — Hellebuyck has the highest ceiling in the entire goalie class. He’s the first goalie to be named league MVP since Carey Price. But he was awful last season, and he’s now either a lame-duck in the ‘Peg waiting on a trade, or the new guy for a franchise that may mirror the chaos of the Jets. I’m looking at you, Buffalo. Hellebuyck’s ceiling is so high, but there’s no sight of a floor right now.
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Tier 3B
Linus Ullmark, Ottawa — Ullmark bravely stepped into the mental health arena without apology last season, knowing many might not be ready for his candor. And he was unstoppable when he returned from leave. Ullmark went 14-4-3 with a 2.43 GAA and .904 save percentage in his final 21 starts. The question mark is what happens to Ottawa post-Brady Tkachuk.
Tier Four: Real Talent, Pure Chaos
Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood, Colorado — Blackwood is the team’s bona fide 1A. But Wedgewood’s breakout in 2025-26 wasn’t a fluke. His GSAx has been positive in four of the last five seasons, and his career save percentage is .909. Last year, Wedgie led the NHL in save percentage (.921) and GAA (2.02), and his GSAx (+20.73) was ninth overall. Blackwood’s stats were above average, but not Wedgewood special. Plus, his puck-handling is below average in a fast system where Wedgewood looks like a third defender on breakouts.
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Darcy Kuemper and Anton Forsberg, Los Angeles — Kuemper’s resume is real — he was a Vezina finalist in 2024-25. And he was elite prior to a mid-season head injury. Forsberg did more than fill in, he starred. And he took the job down the stretch and got the Kings to the postseason. Kuemper will get first crack as 1A, but Forsberg isn’t far away.
Tier 4B: Steady Win Producers
Jake Oettinger, Dallas — Oettinger is a top-15 regular-season producer in everything except wins (35). He delivered a .899 save percentage and 2.75 GAA, and both his GSAx and WAR (wins above replacement) were 26th overall. Go in with your eyes open.
Karel Vejmelka, Utah — Vejmelka finished second in wins (38) in 2025-26, but outside the top-30 in save percentage (.896) among goalies with 20-plus starts. The team system in Utah isn’t strong enough yet to bail him out, so he’s a risk.
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John Gibson, Detroit — Gibson had his best overall season since 2017-18 last season. But he’ll have to be even sharper on a team that will soon be without Dylan Larkin’s offense.
Tier Five: Currently Trending, But Trust Must Be Earned
Real Emerging Talent
Jakub Dobes, Montreal — Dobes had the NHL’s second-best GSAx in an early breakout, and his 29 wins got his team into the postseason. He finished fourth in Calder voting.
Lukas Dostal, Anaheim — Dostal is the most proven of this tier — he has delivered two years in a row and will move into a much higher category next year with another good season.
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Jet Greaves, Columbus — I love this guy. Greaves delivered a top-eight GSAx on a truly abysmal defensive team. Elvis has left the building.
Joel Hofer, St. Louis — Hofer was league-average through the Olympic break and had a .931 save percentage in 16 games after. He lives somewhere between, but I’m not sure where.
Spencer Knight, Chicago — Knight’s GSAx (10.9) was 14th best in the NHL last season. His GAA (2.82) and save percentage (.902) were both above average on a team with no defense.
Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota — Wallstedt had a breakout 2025-26 with an impressive .915 save percentage and a top-eight GSAx. It’s not luck — that save percentage was second overall.
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Small Sample Regression
Brandon Bussi, Carolina — Bussi became the first NHL goalie to win 10 of his first 11 games and the fastest ever to 20 wins. But his second half was so frigid that he ended with essentially league-average stats in save percentage (.895) and GSAx (+2.78).
Aging Journeyman With No Track Record to Suggest a Repeat
Dan Vladar, Philadelphia — Vladar finished third overall in GAA (2.42) last season. But he’s a 30-something average goalie who posted elite numbers for the first time. Textbook regression.
Tier Six: The Platoon Graveyard aka A Disastrous Dozen
Commit and then hold your breath. There’s mostly misery here.
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Toronto (Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz) — Sure, they won two Stanley Cups together. Bob struggled in Florida in a better system. Stolarz gets hurt. Gulp.
Pittsburgh (Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov) — Murashov is a better fit in head coach Dan Muse’s system, but neither man has enough of a sample size to call anything.
Florida (Jacob Markstrom and Akira Schmid) — Two league-average goalies in a system that made Sergei Bobrovsky a two-time Cup winner even with modest numbers. Worth the gamble.
Calgary (Dustin Wolf and Devin Cooley) — Pray, even if you aren’t a believer. Don’t let this team ruin Wolf. His drop last year was precipitous.
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Minnesota (Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt) — Gustavsson is the supposed starter. Wallstedt outplayed him last season. The flip will come early.
Vancouver (Kevin Lankinen and Nikita Tolopilo) — Thatcher Demko’s career has taken a full faceplant headed toward obscurity. Lankinen can’t carry the team. His GSAx last season was second-worst in the NHL. Ugh. Tolopilo can’t carry an NHL team yet.
San Jose (Yaroslav Askarov and Alex Nedeljkovic) — Askarov was the starter, but his GSAx was third-worst among NHL starters. The two split last season and could again.
Vegas (Carter Hart and Adin Hill) — Hart stole the starter role and got the team to the finals before his game collapsed. Hill was awful. This is a dangerous mix despite the strong team.
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Edmonton (Tristan Jarry, Frederik Andersen and Devon Levi) — Three mid-netminders with shaky confidence playing for a coach with a poor history of handling that issue? Run.
New Jersey (Jake Allen, Nico Daws and David Rittich) — Three unproven netminders with no real workhorse on a team desperate to return to the postseason. Yikes.
Seattle (Joey Daccord and Philipp Grubauer) — Daccord is the top dog; Grubauer finally bounced back after three years of below-average play. Will the real starter please stand up?
Buffalo (Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis) — This three-headed monster somehow worked down the stretch last year — the Sabres finished third in save percentage. But not even Lindy Ruff can make it work again. Something needs to give.
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