Fantasy Football: Which NFL players have the hardest early-season schedules at every key position?

This might sound odd coming from someone who just released his Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule Matrix, but you need to be careful to not overweigh those types of season-long metrics.

As I mentioned in that article, the full-season strength of schedule is good to use as a tiebreaker between players you’re targeting in drafts — just don’t get overconfident and let it dictate your outlooks for later in the season. That’s because injuries and changes in performance on both sides of the ball can have a significant impact in the latter stages of a campaign.

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The best way to gain an advantage using strength of schedule is by focusing on the first few weeks and drafting players set for hot starts or avoiding those likely to struggle through a tough streak of opponents. Players with difficult schedules in the early going are prime trade targets when managers begin to question their value in the opening month.

So let’s take a look at each position and identify who has the hardest early-season slates. If you’re looking for players who have the easiest early-season schedules, head here.

Hardest Early QB Schedules

Dak Prescott, Cowboys

There are plenty of reasons to like Prescott as a late-round quarterback this season, including the arrival of wideout George Pickens and first-round guard Tyler Booker, as well as high-projected pass volume for the Cowboys’ offense. However, don’t be surprised if Dak and company get off to a slow start due to matchups with the Eagles, Bears and Packers who were three of the four most challenging opponents in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season. Dallas will also have to deal with the improving defenses of the Giants (Week 2) and Jets (Week 5). Despite the schedule, I’m still bullish on Prescott.

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Jared Goff, Lions

Goff finished as the QB8 in fantasy points per game in 2024, but the degree of difficulty will be a lot different for him this time around. While everyone talks about the loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and star center Frank Ragnow, fantasy managers should also be paying attention to the Lions’ schedule. Last year, Goff had the ninth easiest slate in my matrix and enjoyed the benefit of playing just three outdoor games all season. This time around he’s not so lucky, with the fifth toughest schedule overall and two of his first three outside, beginning with the Packers and Bears — who were the second and third hardest opponents for fantasy passers last season. After that, Goff gets a revamped Baltimore secondary that looks like a Pro Bowl squad. This is not the time to put your fantasy faith in Goff.

Honorable mentions: Geno Smith, Sam Darnold

Hardest Early RB Schedules

D’Andre Swift, Bears

Swift was a big winner this offseason when the Bears failed to add significant competition, while also rebuilding the interior of their offensive line with proven starters. Now he has to prove he’s worthy of holding onto the starting job. That might be tough in the first few weeks with divisional games against the Vikings and Lions, who were bottom five in rushing yards and fantasy points permitted to running backs last year. If Swift struggles out of the gate, we could see Roschon Johnson or Kyle Monangai take on larger roles sooner than expected.

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Saquon Barkley, Eagles

I hesitate to write about players of Barkley’s caliber in articles like this, since he’s a multi-faceted talent capable of overcoming any strong defensive front. It is worth noting though, the Chiefs, Rams and Bucs were all negative matchups for ball carriers a season ago. Kansas City was by far the toughest opponent to run against and Tampa Bay is always near the top of that category whenever Vita Vea is on the field. This doesn’t mean you should avoid Barkley or even move him down your rankings, just keep it in mind in case his numbers are a little lower than usual in September.

Honorable mentions: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs

Hardest Early WR Schedules

CeeDee Lamb/George Pickens, Cowboys

For all the excitement surrounding the Pickens trade to Dallas, the schedule won’t be doing him or his new teammates any favors this season. The Cowboys wideouts are 32nd in my season-long fantasy strength of schedule and the taxing string of opponents kicks off right away with the defending Super Bowl champions. In fact, all four defenses in the table above finished in the top 15 for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns given up in 2024. This is less concerning for Lamb, who should see more than enough volume to produce for fantasy, but Pickens might be even more boom-or-bust than he was in Pittsburgh.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba/Cooper Kupp, Seahawks

Sam Darnold had an impressive career resurrection under Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota, but unfortunately he won’t bring that infrastructure with him to Seattle. Now, he’ll be playing behind a line that Pro Football Focus deemed the second worst unit league-wide at the end of last season and I’m not sure first-round guard Grey Zabel will solve all their blocking issues. That’s a problem for the passing game, which will encounter some of the league’s best pass-rushers in the opening weeks. Since very few people are counting on Darnold for fantasy, we’ll shift the spotlight to his top receivers JSN and Kupp. When Darnold falters under pressure and can’t recapture the magic he had with the Vikings, it’ll be his pass-catchers who suffer the most.

Honorable mentions: Puka Nacua/Davante Adams, Josh Downs/Michael Pittman Jr.

Hardest Early TE Schedules

Travis Kelce, Chiefs

No matter how many headlines you read about Kelce trimming down this offseason, there’s no denying the 35-year-old has entered the decline phase of his career. In addition to dealing with increased target competition from his receiving corps, Kelce will also be confronted with the second-worst season-long fantasy schedule for tight ends. That will take its toll right away given the matchups above. Kelce was held under 50 yards in each of his most recent outings against the Chargers, Eagles and Ravens last season. Meanwhile, the Giants allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to the position in 2024. It’s time to temper our expectations for Kelce.

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Tucker Kraft, Packers

Kraft is a talented young player who’s one of the better run-after-catch tight ends in the NFL. However, the Commanders, Browns and Cowboys were among the seven hardest matchups for tight ends last season and he’s never topped 45 yards in any of his four contests versus the Lions. With the Packers willingness to spread the ball around, it’s fair to wonder whether Kraft might have a quieter opening month — making him a very intriguing buy-low after the first few weeks.

Honorable mentions: Jake Ferguson, Cade Otton