In the early days of fantasy football, rookie receivers were an afterthought, almost a joke. You’d ignore them for their first seasons, barely look at them for their follow-up seasons, then maybe consider them for Year 3 breakouts. That was the playbook, and almost everyone followed it.
There were occasional exceptions. Randy Moss detonated with an amazing 1998 season. Anquan Boldin smashed in 2003, announcing his presence with 217 yards in the opener. There were some hits in the mid-90s — Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn and Eddie Kennison, comets in the pre-internet era — back when fantasy football commissioners were still scoring by hand, fueled by caffeine and the morning newspaper.
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The rookie rules changed in 2014. That’s the year the freshmen crashed the party. Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans were both top-10 fantasy wideouts. Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews were reliable WR2s. And some of the quieter rookies would turn into stars soon enough: Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry. Sammy Watkins had some moments, too.
Let’s examine the rookie classes since then and try to figure out what we’ve learned, if anything, and what trends might be emerging.
Class of 2015
The market tried to correct the rookie WR rules after the 2014 explosion, but the adjustment year was a washout. Amari Cooper checked in as the WR25 (a mild disappointment given he was the fourth overall pick in the draft) and Tyler Lockett (WR35) and Stefon Diggs (WR46) were respectable, especially for players taken outside the first round of the NFL Draft.
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Four other wideouts were joining Cooper in the first round of the draft that year, and they were all marginal contributors, finishing outside the top 60 at the position: DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and Phillip Dorsett at least got on the field. Kevin White and Breshad Perriman had to wait until 2016 but never became productive pros.
There weren’t a lot of stealth hits down the board, either. Jamison Crowder (Pick No. 105) eventually became a quality NFL player.
Class of 2016
This was another year where the first-round wideouts let us down: Corey Coleman (15th overall pick) was done after three seasons, Will Fuller (21st pick) was regularly injured during his six-year career, and Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell were busts. But this class did give us two superstars outside the first round: Michael Thomas (Pick 47; WR9 as a rookie) and Tyreek Hill (Pick 165, WR11 as a freshman). Sterling Shepard was a quality WR4 as a rookie. Tyler Boyd eventually became a good player, but didn’t pop until Year 3.
Class of 2017
Corey Davis (fifth overall pick) never became a star and Mike Williams (seventh overall pick) needed an adjustment year. John Ross (ninth overall pick) won the combine but flopped in the pros. But this draft class found plenty of hits outside the first round, and some of them popped right away (JuJu Smith-Schuster was WR15, Cooper Kupp was WR27). Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin showed promise as rookies, then paid it off in Years 2-3.
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Class of 2018
The NFL backed off receivers at the draft, with DJ Moore the first one selected with the 24th overall pick. Calvin Ridley landed two picks later, and that was it for the first round. Ridley was solid (WR18) as a rookie and Moore (WR39) is at least worth rostering. Good things would eventually happen for Christian Kirk and Courtland Sutton, a couple of second-round picks.
Class of 2019
Ah, the famous 2019 draft, the year the non-first-rounders shocked the world, while the two long first-rounders disappointed.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown has been a passable if erratic pro; he was the first WR selected, pick No. 25. Hollywood was merely the WR45 as a rookie. He’s still hoping to get rebooted with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes on the Kansas City Chiefs this season.
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The Patriots used the 32nd pick on N’Keal Harry, a departure from team strategy — Terry Glenn (1996) was the last first-round receiver picked by New England. Harry never figured out the pro game.
But the later rounds had so many superstars just waiting to be plucked, many of them landing in Rounds 2-3. A.J. Brown (WR9 despite modest volume), Terry McLaurin (WR24), Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR26) and DK Metcalf (WR30) were relevant right away, and Diontae Johnson (WR40) showed promise for later. Darius Slayton was a surprising fifth-round hit, a solid-if-unspectacular player who charted WR33 as a rookie.
Class of 2020
After all those 2019 hits, you’d expect the NFL to attack the receiver position aggressively at the draft. That’s exactly what happened, with six wideouts landing in Round 1. It’s been a mixed bag, with CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk all spreading their wings, while Jalen Reagor was a flop and Jerry Jeudy has been erratic (but great in 2024). Henry Ruggs III was a hit-and-miss player for two years before his life took a tragic turn.
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There were some hits outside the first round, too: Chase Claypool (alas, a comet), Tee Higgins, Gabe Davis, Darnell Mooney, Michael Pittman Jr. Seven different rookie wideouts got to 100 fantasy points this year, headed by Jefferson (WR6), Claypool (WR14), Lamb (WR17), Higgins (WR28) and Aiyuk (WR33).
Class of 2021
This is the class that most resembles the 2024 receiver class — we saw three wideouts land in the top-10 picks (Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith). They’ve all been hits as pros, even with occasional injuries and slumps slipped into the mix. Chase was WR3 as a freshman, Waddle WR21 and Smith WR30. Two other wideouts went in that first round, but they’ve been washouts: Kadarius Toney, Rashod Bateman.
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Two eventual stars were unearthed in the later rounds: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Pick No. 112) and Nico Collins (Pick No. 89). The Sun God was WR23 as a rookie. Collins needed development time, but the 2023 breakout was worth the wait.
Class of 2022
By this time, the NFL had fully pivoted into receiver-heavy drafting, with four wideouts in the top 12 and six in the first round. Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Drake London have shown occasional flashes as stars, though they’ve also dealt with inconsistent quarterback play.
The Lions knew Jameson Williams was a wait-for-it pick; he started to pay it off in 2024. Treylon Burks was a first-round bust and Jahan Dotson might be, too.
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Some wideouts outside the first round have been heard from, though Christian Watson was better as a rookie. George Pickens can play, when his head is on straight. Khalil Shakir, Alec Pierce and Wan’Dale Robinson have had their moments.
If we focus only on their first seasons, Wilson (WR21) nudged out Olave (WR23) for the yellow jersey. Watson charted WR25, Pickens was WR30, London finished WR38 and Dotson was the WR41. A solid year for the new kids.
Class of 2023
Four wideouts landed in the first round, though the clubs took their time: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison went in a four-pack at Picks 20-23. Four more wideouts went in Round 2, spotlighted by Jayden Reed and Marvin Mims Jr. And there was one enormous sleeper to come: Puka Nacua in Round 5.
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Nacua charted WR5 and was the waiver-wire god of the season. Reed (WR18), Addison (WR19), Rice (WR27) and Flowers (WR30) justified their roster spots. Tank Dell was the WR37 despite missing six games.
JSN was a disappointing rookie (WR51), though he was a winning fantasy player last year. We’re already wondering if Johnston (WR78) is a bust.
Class of 2024
Plenty of freshmen hit it big last season, with Brian Thomas Jr. (WR4), Malik Nabers (WR7) and Ladd McConkey (WR12) all sailing past 1,000 receiving yards. More impressively, Thomas and Nabers did it despite mediocre quarterback play. Maybe the expectations for Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR29) were too great right out of the box, but a 62-885-8 haul is no cause for embarrassment. Rome Odunze (WR49) battled crowding in Chicago. Xavier Worthy (WR33) was mostly a gadget player but scored 12 times, including the playoffs.
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If we survey the rookie receiver production from 2014 through 2024, we see 44 years with 100 points or more. Here’s how it breaks down by round:
Round 1: 24 players
Round 2: 14 players
Round 3: 5 players (John Brown missed by one point)
Round 4: 3 players
Round 5: 3 players
I can’t say definitively that a Nacua or St. Brown isn’t hiding in 2025, but that’s certainly not the way to bet.
If we broadly define a rookie “hit” as 100 or more points, and a rookie “miss” as fewer than 100 points, here’s the rookie hit rate by round:
Round 1: about 50%
Round 2: about 25%
Round 3: about 15%
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After Round 3: you’re playing the lotto
Class of 2025
Let’s pivot to the present. Looking at the rookie class of 2025. Here’s how I’m initially viewing these guys for fantasy football in 2025, using the traffic-light grading system:
Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers (green light): Bryce Young looked significantly improved down the stretch and offensive designer Dave Canales seems to know what he’s doing.
Travis Hunter, Jaguars (yellow light): Talent is undeniable but some of his attention will be spent on defense, and BTJ has already spread his wings as an alpha receiver. Hunter should be a great pro, but the market has already priced him up.
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Emeka Egbuka, Bucs (yellow light): His football IQ might be the bigger selling point than his raw talent, but we said that about JSN and eventually, that cashed in. I’m bullish on Eggy for the future, but initially, he might find the Tampa Bay huddle crowded.
Matthew Golden, Packers (red light): The Packers haven’t given anyone 100 targets since Davante Adams left. Platoon, platoon, platoon.
Luther Burden III, Bears (red light): The Bears had a gridlock situation last year with too many good pass catchers, and now they’ve added Burden and fellow rookie TE Colston Loveland.
Tre Harris, Chargers (red light): The Chargers still run to set up the run, and McConkey quickly became the target hog in this passing game.
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Jack Bech, Raiders (red light): Has a path to start immediately, but the Raiders won’t come close to last year’s passing volume.
Kyle Williams, Patriots (yellow light): New England’s track record with drafting receivers has been dreadful, but Williams feels like a possible exception. QB Drake Maye looks ready to blast off, and OC Josh McDaniels was a shrewd rehire.
Jayden Higgins / Jaylin Noel, Texans (red lights): I’m open-minded to the Texans having a sleeper here, but I need to see some summer activity before I start chasing this angle with any intent.
Pat Bryant, Broncos (red light): Going to keep initial expectations in check, though it was interesting when Sean Payton compared Bryant to Michael Thomas.
Anyone I didn’t mention? I’ll try to be open-minded all summer. Nacua says that’s important.
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