Set your Week 13 lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key start/sit advice for every game on the slate.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Start: Justin Herbert
Herbert has been fantasy’s QB9 over the last five games, and the Chargers will likely continue to rely more on the pass with J.K. Dobbins out. The Falcons have yielded the 10th fewest fantasy points to RBs but the seventh most to QBs this season. Atlanta has ceded multiple TD passes in seven straight games, allowing a whopping 18 over that span. The Chargers have a healthy 25.5-point implied total, so Herbert is a top-five QB this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Start: George Pickens
Pickens is coming off a quiet game, but he saw the second-most air yards (143) last week. Pickens’ prorated season stats during games with Russell Wilson would be 136 targets, 88 catches, 1,404 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. His fantasy production has seen a 60.2% boost with Wilson compared to Justin Fields this season. The Bengals have been a pass-funnel defense over the last five games, when they’ve allowed the second most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers but the second fewest to running backs.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sit: Travis Etienne Jr. & Tank Bigbsy
Etienne will return to splitting work with Bigsby, who was back practicing in full this week. Trevor Lawrence returned to a limited practice, but Mac Jones could be in line for another start. Houston has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and Jacksonville has the fifth-lowest implied team total (20.5 points). Bigsby’s averaged 16.7 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) in games without Etienne this season but just 6.8 with him. Etienne has struggled even without Bigsby, so both backs are bench candidates in Week 13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Temper expectations: James Conner, Kyler Murray & Marvin Harrison Jr.
Conner has a 48% carry share over Arizona’s last three games, while rookie Trey Benson has a 29% share over that span. Conner leads the league in evaded tackles and continues to see work in the passing game, but he’s losing work overall and gets the league’s toughest matchup this week. The Vikings have allowed just 62.3 RB rushing yards per game, an NFL-low five rushing touchdowns and by far the lowest EPA/rush. Vikings’ opponents have averaged the fewest rushing attempts per game (20.9) this season.
Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has gotten just 5.4 YPA against zone coverage, which Minnesota has used at the league’s second-highest rate (79.5%). Murray has also struggled against the blitz and two-high coverage (25th in fantasy points/dropback), which are two features of Brian Flores’ defense. Minnesota has ceded an NFL-low 8.6 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks.
Moreover, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s target rate falls from 30.3% against man down to 18% versus zone, while his fantasy points per route run takes a similar tumble (0.65 to 0.34). Harrison Jr. hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game since Week 3 and no wide receiver in the top 60 is averaging fewer fantasy points per game if you removed touchdowns.
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Murray has the same number of top-five QB weekly finishes (four) this season as he does bottom 10. There is admitted risk he goes off on your bench against a Minnesota pass-funnel defense allowing the second most pass attempts per game (37.9). Conner is the RB20 in this week’s “expert consensus ranks,” so you may not have better alternatives. But at minimum, temper expectations for Conner, Murray and Harrison Jr. this week.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Start: Adonai Mitchell
Here’s a sleeper for this week. Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin all missed practice again Thursday, so Mitchell is looking at a vastly expanded role Sunday. Michael Pittman Jr. will likely be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez, and Mitchell has seen his target rate (43.2%) and fantasy points per route run (0.49) skyrocket against man coverage, which the Patriots have used as the league’s second highest rate (40.2%).
Mitchell hasn’t experienced much success with Anthony Richardson this season, but AR played far better than the box score indicated last week, and his willingness to throw downfield appears like a good fit for the rookie WR. If there’s a player who’s widely available (just 4% rostered) on waiver wires who could make an impact this week, it’s Mitchell.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets
Sit: Geno Smith
The Jets’ defense has unquestionably fallen off since firing Robert Saleh, but they’ve allowed just two passing touchdowns and have the league’s second-highest pressure rate over the last four games. For the season, New York has yielded the third-fewest passing yards per game (197.2) and the fewest passing touchdowns (five). Moreover, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett remained out of practice Thursday, so Seattle may be shorthanded offensively (but Jaxon Smith-Njigba would get a fantasy boost). The Seahawks’ defense ranks fourth in EPA/play since trading for Ernest Jones, so game script may not call for much passing in this slow-paced matchup. Sit Smith this week.
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Start: Tony Pollard
Pollard won’t likely see a 94% snap share or quite as big of a workload as he did last week with Tyjae Spears returning to a full practice Thursday, but he should remain in fantasy lineups. The Commanders have yielded 4.8 YPC, the fifth-most EPA/rush and the second-most RB rushing yards per game (120.8). Will Levis is playing much better, and the Titans defense should help keep the game script manageable. Start Pollard even with Spears’ return.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Start: Bucky Irving
Irving’s big game last week could’ve been massive if not for being tackled at the one-yard line on two separate drives and losing fourth-quarter work in the blowout. He out-snapped and ran more routes than Rachaad White for the first time this season. Irving is first in the league in yards after contact per rush (4.2), and he ranks top five both in YPC and yards per route run. Irving has been fantasy’s RB11 since Week 6 despite seeing less than 50% of the snaps over that span, as he quite simply looks like one the NFL’s best running backs right now.
Irving will continue to lose some work in Tampa Bay’s backfield, but he should remain in fantasy lineups in a prime matchup this week. Carolina has allowed the most rush attempts per game (27.5), rush yards per game (129.5), touchdowns (16) and schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs. Bryce Young has undeniably looked far better recently, but the Buccaneers are 5.5-point home favorites Sunday, so game script should be favorable. Tampa Bay also sports the league’s highest implied team total (27.5 points), so treat Irving as a top-12 back this week.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Start: Matthew Stafford
Stafford has been fantasy’s QB43 (8.9 fpg) in five games without both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the field this season; he’s been the QB8 (19.0 fpg) during five games with the wide receivers. Stafford’s season pace would be 4,887.5 passing yards and 37.4 touchdowns with Kupp and Nacua on the field, and that includes facing the league’s current best defense last week. The Saints have allowed the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the last five games. The Rams have one of the league’s highest projected totals (26.5 points) in a fast-paced matchup against a depleted and vulnerable New Orleans’ secondary.
Stafford is the QB14 in “expert consensus ranks” this week, but he’s my QB4.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
Start: Dallas Goedert
Jalen Hurts has averaged just 21.3 pass attempts over the last six games, but more volume should be there in this fast-paced matchup. Baltimore has allowed the fewest RB rushing yards per game (60.5), while Ravens’ opponents have averaged by far the most pass attempts (39.2) this season. Moreover, Goedert saw a 33.3% first-read target share last week without DeVonta Smith. The wideout returned to a limited practice Thursday, but Smith may not be 100% even if he’s able to suit up. Fire up Goedert against a pass-funnel defense in a matchup with this week’s highest total (51.0 points).
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Sit: Deebo Samuel Sr.
Samuel is the WR43 in fantasy points per game this season, sandwiched between Quentin Johnston and Rashod Bateman. He’s the WR42 in expected fantasy points, just behind Allen Lazard. Whether it’s injuries or recovering from pneumonia, Samuel simply hasn’t looked like nearly the same player this year. He’s committed multiple drops and ranks #118 out of 123 pass catchers in ESPN’s Open Score.
Samuel feels “due” for a breakout game, and the 49ers are getting the second most yards per play (6.3) and due for red-zone regression. But San Francisco’s offense was a disaster without Brock Purdy and Trent Williams last week; Purdy looks increasingly iffy for Sunday night while barely throwing this week, and Williams seems unlikely to play. The 49ers have the second-lowest implied team total (19.5 points) this week, which strongly suggests Brandon Allen is starting in a windy game with temperatures in the 20s. The Bills have let a WR eclipse 16.1 fantasy points during just one game all season, so Samuel is a bench candidate Sunday night.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Sit: Nick Chubb
Chubb saw season highs in snap share (64%), rush yards (59) and carries (20) last week, but his fantasy day was only saved by two short touchdown runs. He’s getting just 3.0 YPC and averaging only 1.4 targets (and 1.4 receiving yards) over five games since returning from another serious multi-ligament knee surgery. Chubb remains a threat to score at the goal line, but he gets a tough matchup this week.
The Broncos have allowed the second-fewest rush yards before contact per attempt (0.8) and the third-fewest rushing scores (six) this season. Denver has been vulnerable to receiving backs, but Chubb ran only eight routes last week, and the Broncos have ceded the fourth fewest schedule-adjusted rush fantasy points to RBs over the last five games. The Browns have issues at left tackle and a lowly 19.5-point implied total, so Chubb deserves bench consideration Monday night.
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