The 2025 NFL Draft is in the books and while most of the boom in fantasy football will be felt at the running back position, the first round still brought us four wide receivers. Rookie receivers have been some of the best value picks you could make in recent seasons. There will be some big hits from the 2025 crop.
However, these rookie wideouts can take some time to become consistent starters. While this sometimes has to do with general Year 1 development, it can also be a result of situation. When rookies do miss, it’s usually because managers didn’t quite have a full grasp of the pitfalls of offensive environments — look at Rome Odunze’s middling rookie year statistical performance in a broken and crowded Bears’ ecosystem or Marvin Harrison’s disappointing fantasy campaign in a volatile role with the Cardinals.
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Here, we’ll examine both the risk and reward present in each of the first-round rookie receivers’ Year 1 outlooks as it stands coming out of the draft. These factors can change and crystallize as we go through the summer months but for now, this will allow you to get an early start in weighing both sides for all four first-round wide receivers.
Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
The risk
The obvious elephant in the room is how much time Hunter allocates to the defensive side of the football. If he’s only a 75% snap player on offense, at some point that does cap his overall fantasy ceiling and floor. I’m skeptical that this ends up being the case but you also can’t ignore the downside.
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Hunter will also be contending with a player in Brian Thomas Jr. who looked like a superstar down the stretch for the 2024 Jaguars. At the same time, while I could not be more in on BTJ and his future as a No. 1 wideout, let’s remember that he only became a true volume hog in the final portion of last season when Jacksonville’s other main guys were injured. That should not be read as a negative for Thomas the player, but it’s a reminder that these two talented wideouts are likely to eat into each other’s projections.
There’s also the fact that we don’t have a ceiling outcome season on record for Trevor Lawrence. I’m high on Liam Coen and the offense he’s about to construct but there’s also the risk of the unknown when an offensive coordinator is elevated to the head coach gig. There is an unproven factor to both guys.
The reward
Hunter is one of the best wide receiver prospects I’ve ever evaluated. The talent is immense and the Jaguars have already indicated he will be an offense-first player for them. You don’t take a player No. 2 overall — and trade up to get them, no less — unless they’re going to help you score points. I have little doubt that when Coen gets a look at this guy and Lawrence throws a few routes with him in practice, they’ll both agree this guy can rarely, if ever, leave the field when they drop back to pass.
Even if Hunter does have to come off the field to preserve his body for cornerback work on 20% to 15% of the offensive snaps, he’ll be on the field for critical downs and in the red zone. He’ll be someone they design plays for at every level. That’s where fantasy points are scored.
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While there is some risk with Coen as a head coach — there always is with new hires — he proved to be one of the best minds in the game last season. The Buccaneers offense was a top 5-10 unit by every relevant metric and pushed all the right buttons. That unit had two wide receivers reach excellent production in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Hunter will be a prime player for an ascending group.
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
The risk
We don’t have any playing time restrictions with the eighth overall pick in the NFL Draft. Among first-round wide receivers, he has the cleanest projection to get on the field since he’s a true X-receiver, which stands out in the Panthers’ current room. Xavier Legette was much better prior to being moved to that spot after the Panthers’ bye last season. McMillan will take it over from Day 1.
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The only real possible issue here would be if Bryce Young’s performance down the stretch in 2025 turns out to be a fluke. Young was 15th in EPA per dropback from Week 11 on last season. After a disastrous rookie season and a benching early in 2025, Young turned the corner to offer verifiably above-average play behind center once he resumed the starting role. Drafters will need to count on the Young and Dave Canales partnership taking yet another step if McMillan is going to be a fantasy starter as a rookie. Even if you’re bullish on the offense overall, which I am, you have to acknowledge that it isn’t a certainty.
The reward
If Young is up to the task, there’s not too much standing in the way of McMillan eventually becoming a useful player in fantasy football, even if he’s not destined for an immediate WR1 finish like some of the guys from the 2024 class.
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McMillan possesses all the skills to be a Day 1 starter at X-receiver. He wins against press coverage, separates over the middle of the field and is a vertical threat as a ball-winner. His ability to win on dig routes and other intermediate in-breaking routes is an ideal overlap with Young’s game:
While there are some nice pass-catchers on this roster, McMillan should become the top target earner in short order. Adam Thielen has been solid as a big slot receiver but is getting older, while Legette was a volatile prospect who played as such in his rookie season and must be moved around the formation. Former UDFA Jalen Coker is a favorite of mine but he might have to split slot reps with Thielen. McMillan will meet little resistance in earning the high-value perimeter targets in this offense.
Overall, the Panthers look like an offensive unit on the rise. Their run game was excellent all throughout last year, the offensive line was successfully retooled and McMillan boosts the overall health of the receiving room by pushing everyone else into more comfortable roles. Young showed real signs of progress while playing an aggressive brand of football with improvisation chops under pressure during his late 2024 breakthrough. As long as that play holds into this season, McMillan can be a nice fantasy value if he’s ranked outside the top 30 players at his position.
Emeka Eguka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The risk
This one is fairly obvious: the Buccaneers feature one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL. Egbuka is one of the most refined receivers I can remember scouting, so he will be ready to rock early on in his career. But as long as everyone is healthy on this roster, he is at best the No. 3 receiver.
Even more interesting, Egbuka projects well to a power slot receiver role. The freshly extended Chris Godwin is one of the premier power slot receivers in the game. While both guys can operate outside, their respective skill sets would be best maximized as big interior options. That could create a log jam where neither guy ends up hitting their ceiling. GM Jason Licht said the Egbuka pick has nothing to do with Godwin’s rehab and he expects him to be ready for Week 1.
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With Godwin and Mike Evans in the fold, it will be impossible to project a fantasy-viable role for Egbuka in 2025, unless something major changes in this wide receiver room.
The reward
Any idea that Egbuka won’t be the WR3 on this team and immediately relegate Jalen McMillan to a part-time role is misguided. McMillan had a nice finish to his rookie season but is not a consistent player and profiles best as a rotational player. He will still see snaps but Egbuka is a superior player.
So, you’re getting a talented Round 1 rookie receiver tied to one of the best offenses in the NFL last season. Tampa Bay ranked fifth in EPA per play overall and third in dropback success rate. Also, Evans has consistently missed time the last few seasons with hamstring issues and Godwin is coming off a major injury. If those veterans aren’t on the field, Egbuka would instantly become a fantasy starter. His game overlaps extremely well with Baker Mayfield, as Egbuka thrives on out-breaking routes and can catch passes away from his frame.
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Chaos happens every NFL season. Egbuka would be the rare wide receiver who has a clear path to benefit from that chaos.
Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers
The risk
The Packers rotated their wide receivers last season. No one cleared a 17% target share and Jayden Reed led the team with a 73.9% route participation. Almost the entire room is coming back, outside of Christian Watson, and I’d be shocked if they just cast aside any of their young wide receivers entirely. This crowded passing game could still be congested in 2025.
Green Bay also leans extremely run-heavy. They ranked 32nd in neutral pass rate last season with Josh Jacobs as the figurehead of the offense. Was that in part because they lost faith in their pass-catchers or more a blend of Jordan Love’s injury and Jacobs’ excellent play at running back? That may be the key to deciphering Golden’s Year 1 target projection.
The reward
Golden is an excellent player who fits perfectly in Green Bay’s wide receiver room. While the public, and admittedly their running back, obsessed over their need for a true No. 1 receiver — easier problem to identify than solve — what this room really lacked was a consistent speed threat and vertical ball-winner. That’s the player Christian Watson was in flashes and, despite their size differences, Golden is that player in reality.
Golden should quickly emerge as Love’s preferred target on deep in-breaking routes. Love loves to throw them and that’s where Golden’s route running is best expressed. While that might make him a “better in best ball” type of projection, it does mean that when he hits, he will hit big for your lineup.
Golden could also very well lead this team in targets. I’m a big fan of Jayden Reed’s game so for the time being, I’ll likely rank it a close call between the two. Given that the strength of his game is downfield, Golden’s targets could be more high-yield than other Packers wideouts.
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