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Every offseason, fantasy football managers want to know: who can you really trust in your lineup? One name that has popped up — along with a big dose of skepticism — is new Commanders receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. In the latest Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, Matt Harmon and Andy Behrens got into the weeds on Deebo’s prospects now that he’s in Washington. Is he someone you can rely on, or is caution the smarter approach?
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Let’s break down what they said, what the numbers show and how you should treat Deebo in your 2025 draft plans.
Deebo Samuel Sr. joins a new team
Washington added Deebo Samuel to help take Jayden Daniels and the offense to the next level. But as Matt and Andy pointed out, the Commanders otherwise didn’t do much to upgrade their receiver room: “[Deebo Samuel] is the only, like, real pass catcher addition here,” Matt said. “Zach Ertz is another year older. … The other spots along the offensive line, we don’t quite know what’s going to happen.”
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So, Deebo is clearly being counted on to be more than just a gadget player or possession guy — he’s supposed to be a difference-maker on this team.
Wiht that said, there are some real red flags.
Both hosts had real reservations about what Deebo still brings to the table. “Deebo is such a complicated player because he built his reputation on the one great season, right? The 1,400-yard season. … That one big season represents about 30% of his career receiving production and the rest of the career is full of isolated good games and a whole bunch of really quiet games,” Andy said.
Deebo’s 2021 breakout was legendary. But since then? He simply hasn’t come close to repeating it.
Deebo’s been in a steady decline since his monster season
Matt highlighted some stunning Reception Perception data: “Deebo Samuel last year … 39.7% success rate vs. man coverage. That is … the third lowest mark I’ve ever charted, ever, ever, ever. … Deebo’s never been a great man-beater, but it was better than that previously. … This was consistent on film before the pneumonia thing.”
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Translation: he’s struggling to separate, even before last year’s health issues.
Deebo’s game relies on explosiveness, breaking tackles and YAC. But he’s battled injuries, illness and just wear-and-tear, especially as he creeps closer to 30.
Both Matt and Andy also wonder if this offense is even built to make Deebo a reliable fantasy starter. “I’m not saying that I’m betting against the Commanders … but if by Week 8 we’re kind of looking back and saying like, ‘ah, yeah, did we take another step here?’ I think that’s the question. … Taking the next step to, ‘okay, we went from conference championship to now we’re in the Super Bowl’ … I’m a little skeptical that this was enough on offense,” Matt said.
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If the whole offense takes a step back, Deebo’s ceiling — and his weekly floor — could take a nosedive.
Is there any upside to drafting Deebo?
The only thing working in Deebo’s favor is that the Commanders did, in fact, give up a draft pick and are paying him to be involved. Same OC, young QB and a thin receiver group means he’ll get his chances. Also, his YAC skills and ability to break the game open are still tantalizing if he’s healthy and properly used.
Nonetheless, the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast crew clearly leans skeptical on Deebo, and with good reason:
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He’s trending down statistically and on film
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He’s no longer the focal point of a Shanahan offense designed to maximize his strengths
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The Commanders’ offense could be clunky or slow out of the gate
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His “one big year” is fading more and more into the rearview
Unless Deebo shows he’s regained his burst and Washington’s offense gels early, he’s the kind of player you draft as a WR3/flex, not someone you trust every week as a locked-in starter.
If he drops in drafts and you want to chase upside, there’s a path. But if you’re hoping for that 2021 magic, the Yahoo team says you should temper expectations.
Read the full article here
