With the NFL season approaching and fantasy football drafts in full swing, there’s never been a better time to determine which players could be this year’s breakout stars.
It seems easy in hindsight, but identifying young talent on the verge of making a major leap is often what propels fantasy managers to championships.
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Over the next week, I’ll highlight my favorite breakout candidates at every key fantasy position — but let’s kick this series off with quarterbacks.
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2025 Fantasy Rankings (Half PPR)
QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K | Top 300
J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
It might seem like a bold call to lead my breakouts column with a quarterback who hasn’t been on the field for a regular-season snap in the NFL, but I promise you there are very few projections I feel stronger about than McCarthy’s in 2025.
And even I might be too low on him.
We’re talking about the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, who the Vikings handpicked to be their future franchise quarterback. Early returns were positive when McCarthy fared well in his lone preseason appearance throwing for 188 yards, two touchdowns and a pick, while rushing twice for 18 yards in around two quarters of action. Unfortunately, he came out of that game with a meniscus tear that required season-ending surgery and an unchallenged Sam Darnold went on to have a magical year.
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Remember that. Darnold, who had struggled his prior six campaigns with the Jets, Panthers and 49ers, linked up with Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and delivered a season unlike any other in his career. The veteran was fifth league-wide in both passing yards (4,319) and passing touchdowns (35), finishing as the QB11 in fantasy points per game (18.8).
But he’s not the only quarterback to have that kind of success under O’Connell’s play-calling. Kirk Cousins was the QB7 (19.3 fppg) in 2023 and QB13 (18 fppg) in 2022. Joshua Dobbs was the QB10 (19.1 fppg) during his five-game starting stint for Minnesota in 2023 and Nick Mullens was QB14 (17.9 fppg) when he spent most of the final month under center that year.
So, we have a multi-season sample of O’Connell and the Vikings’ offense producing quality fantasy QB production, despite at times deploying backup-level talent at the position. And yet, the first-round pick who’s spent a full year learning the system from the sidelines is going off the board in fantasy drafts as the QB20? Something doesn’t add up.
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I haven’t even mentioned the outstanding weapons McCarthy will get to play with in Minnesota, including one of the game’s best receivers in Justin Jefferson, an ascending star wideout in Jordan Addison, a top-5 tight end in T.J. Hockenson and a dynamic tandem in the backfield with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.
The Vikings also made great strides to improve their interior offensive line by adding veterans Ryan Kelly and Will Fries, as well as first-round guard Donovan Jackson.
McCarthy even gets the benefit of an early-season bye (Week 6) that will give the team an opportunity to reassess his progress and make any necessary adjustments.
If you end up waiting on quarterback this year, you’ll have plenty of options to choose from, but McCarthy represents the best value as a late-round pick who could turn into a set-it-and-forget-it fantasy starter.
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Boone’s redraft rank: QB15 (Borderline fantasy QB1 who’s being incorrectly valued as a low-end QB2)
Boone’s 2025 projection for McCarthy: 4,239 passing yards, 28 passing TDs, 16 INTs, 285 rushing yards, rushing TD
Caleb Williams, Bears
Williams is the obvious breakout candidate among quarterbacks this season and every fantasy analyst — including myself — has gone on record with some level of excitement over his potential in a Ben Johnson offense. Between the improved coaching, the rebuilt interior of his offensive line (Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson) and the additional skill position talent (Colston Loveland, Luther Burden III), there are no excuses for Williams in 2025. How long it will take for all those elements to coalesce remains to be seen, but it helps that the 23-year-old gets a friendly schedule in the opening month with three of his four contests coming against teams that finished inside the top-12 for most fantasy points allowed to QBs last year. And despite the dysfunction with the former coaching staff, Williams did manage to post QB1 fantasy numbers in three of his final seven games as a rookie. A significant step forward is coming for this offense and that starts with Williams, who has a strong case to be a high-end fantasy producer moving forward.
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Boone’s redraft rank: QB11 (Low-end QB1 with an elite ceiling)
Drake Maye, Patriots
Maye is the second-most obvious breakout candidate at the position after taking over as the Patriots’ starter in Week 6 last year and showing a very stable fantasy floor — in large part due to his rushing stats. In the nine outings where Maye played at least 85% of the snaps, he never finished lower than QB17 while averaging 212.7 passing yards and 36.7 rushing yards per game. He also threw 14 TDs, 10 interceptions and rushed for another two scores on the ground during that stretch. If you take those numbers and pace them out over a full 17-game season, it puts Maye in the conversation as a possible low-end QB1. He also put up those numbers as a rookie with very limited talent around him. This year he gets a new coaching staff with Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, as well as Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams and TreVeyon Henderson joining the mix. Whether you like those names or not, they represent a huge upgrade for Maye. The only thing left to find out now is if the 22-year-old can take advantage of the new personnel and combine that high floor with some week-winning fantasy performances.
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Boone’s redraft rank: QB16 (High-end QB2 who will continue to flirt with QB1 results)
Bryce Young, Panthers
Many fantasy managers wrote off Young after a disappointing rookie campaign where he looked unsettled behind an offensive line that did him no favors. Even with the arrival of the QB career resurrector Dave Canales, the first half of last season was more of the same for the former first overall pick. However, something clicked along the way and after the Panthers’ Week 11 bye, Young was a different player entirely. He appeared more comfortable in the offense and even began using his legs more. The result was the ninth-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks over the final seven weeks. Now, with another full offseason in Canales’ system and the addition of a true No. 1 target in first-round rookie wideout Tetairoa McMillan, Young has a ceiling that seemed almost out of reach a year ago. Though he has the latest ADP of any passer on this list, he has a legitimate path to top-12 fantasy production if his development carries into 2025.
Boone’s redraft rank: QB20 (Mid-range QB2 with sneaky QB1 potential)
2025 Fantasy Rankings (Half PPR)
QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K | Top 300
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