We no longer need to parse Aaron Rodgers’ cryptic podcast comments and social media posts to divine whether he will or won’t play for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2025.
The 41-year-old Rodgers, entering his 21st NFL season, on Friday signed a one-year deal with the Steelers, presumably locking him in as the team’s Week 1 starter. If Rodgers is an upgrade for the Pittsburgh pass catchers, it will only be of the slight variety, according to my various spreadsheets and the memories of Rodgers’ 2024 meltdown in New York.
Mike Tomlin’s experimentation with how bad a playoff team’s offense can be continues unabated. Rodgers might just lock Tomlin into another nine-win season, which appears to be the Steelers’ reason for being.
Below are some fantasy takeaways from what Rodgers might mean as Pittsburgh’s quarterback in 2025.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Mason Rudolph
Let’s be real about Aaron Rodgers’ 2024 season: It wasn’t just disappointing. He didn’t just underachieve. He was downright bad.
Rodgers ranked 25th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in drop back success rate as Jets QB in 2024, a season that saw the prolific podcaster and future Hall of Famer post the lowest adjusted yards per attempt (6.7) of his NFL career. He was 19th out of 32 passers in drop back EPA, right there with fellow fading veteran Kirk Cousins.
Dig a little deeper and it gets worse, much worse. Rodgers last season was dead last among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in accuracy on intermediate throws (between 10 and 19 yards). He was a stunning 11 percent below his expected completion rate on such attempts. The grizzled vet wasn’t much better on short throws: His accuracy on passes between 0-9 yards ranked 36th out of 42 quarterbacks. And where once Rodgers was lethal under pressure, last year a mere four quarterbacks had a lower completion rate (45 percent) when facing pressure.
There’s a real (statistical) argument that Mason Rudolph is as good or better than Rodgers in this late stage of the latter’s career. I take no pleasure in writing that.
Rudolph in 2024, starting five games and attempting 228 passes for the Titans, ranked 23rd in drop back EPA, just a tick below Rodgers. Rudolph was a shocking 13th in success rate; Rodgers was 25th. Rudolph was more accurate than Rodgers in both the short and intermediate areas (he was more accurate than Matthew Stafford, to name one notable QB, in the 10-19 yard range).
My spreadsheets are telling a simple, straightforward story: The Steelers could have avoided the coming Rodgers-centric media headaches and never ending Rodgers drama and stuck with Rudolph, who is at least as good as Rodgers right now. This also means Steelers pass catchers won’t be affected much if the aged Rodgers misses time in 2025.
Inside Steelers’ 2025 schedule with Rodgers
Mike Florio and Michael Holley assess the Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 schedule now that Aaron Rodgers has signed with the team, including Week 1 against the Jets and Week 8 vs. the Packers on NBC and Peacock.
DK Metcalf and The Rest
The Steelers’ receiver group is embarrassing. Outside DK Metcalf — who profiles more as a WR2 than an unquestioned WR1 — they have two starting wideouts who might not make the roster on 20-plus NFL teams. The downright elderly (by NFL standards) Robert Woods and Calvin Austin are no one’s idea of legit starting receivers. Maybe Roman Wilson, who struggled with injuries and fell out of favor among Pittsburgh coaches during what amounted to a redshirt 2024 campaign, will emerge as a No. 2 option behind Metcalf. That’s the hope (cope) among Steelers coaches, anyway.
None of these wideouts will enjoy much in the way of pass volume. Arthur Smith is bound and determined to establish the run harder than the Bradshaw-era Steelers. He was reportedly clear about this with Rodgers during their offseason meetings. This will be Smith’s show in 2025. Rodgers, as we discussed during a recent Rotoworld Football Show, is not going to bring in his army of lackeys to recreate the Rodgers Offense that worked in Green Bay for so long. He’ll have to play by Art Smith’s run-first rules.
Smith’s offense isn’t nearly as slow-paced as I had thought. The Steelers last year ran the tenth most offensive snaps — more than the Ravens, Vikings, and Bengals, to name a few — and operated at the 12th fastest pace. Smith’s offense utilized the no-huddle approach at the fourth highest rate in the league (22 percent). That’s not exactly fantasy-unfriendly stuff. Perhaps enough play volume could make Metcalf a top-24 option with a little touchdown luck.
It’s difficult (impossible) to envision any other Steelers pass catcher becoming fantasy relevant in 12-team formats in 2025. Roman Wilson would be my bet, a decidedly thin bet.
Steelers Backfield
Rodgers has never been one to check down to his running backs, though we saw a shift in 2024. Jets running backs were targeted on 20 percent of the team’s attempts, the seventh highest rate in the NFL. In fact, only seven QBs logged more screen pass attempts in 2024. It didn’t amount to much, as Rodgers was 32nd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt (3.9) on screens.
Maybe the aging Rodgers will continue looking to dump it off to his backs in 2025. That would seem to benefit Jaylen Warren, who profiles as the clear pass-catching option in the Pittsburgh backfield over between-the-tackles banger Kaleb Johnson.
Warren hasn’t been what you might call a target commander out of the backfield. Last year, he saw a target on 20 percent of his routes — a fine if unimpressive rate. That was down from his career target per route rate of 23 percent. Running back targets are largely a function of play design and intent, so maybe we shouldn’t read too much into these rates.
It’s notable, however, that Rodgers finally relented in 2024 and checked down to his backs far more than he did during his heyday. It could be a major PPR boon for Warren.
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