We are heading into the dog days of the fantasy baseball season. The enthusiasm of April and May has started to wear off, and the stretch run is still a couple of months away. Many managers are starting to face the reality that their squad needs significant help in order to contend, which will make them more eager to trade than ever before. In addition to recommending some specific players who should be involved in many deals (this week I focused on pitchers), I also want to recommend looking at two types of teams when sending offers:
1. Wise managers will target teams in the bottom half of their standings. The managers of these teams will be open to making bold changes. They are also more likely to have mediocre knowledge of how to trade effectively, as their team may be near the bottom of the standings because they don’t have a great understanding of how to play fantasy baseball. To be clear, I’m not suggesting that managers send lopsided offers to these teams, like trying to trade George Springer for Elly De La Cruz. I’m merely mentioning that some managers of teams at the bottom of the league may not have a great capacity to understand the advanced stats that sometimes drive trade decisions.
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2. Managers should also try to trade with teams who have clear weaknesses. For example, the team in last place in saves is the most likely one to overpay for one of your closers. Managers will often get aggressive to shore up their weaknesses in June, as they have already failed to make this happen via the waiver wire.
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BONUS: It also makes sense to look for teams who have been falling in the standings, as these managers are more likely to make panic trades. There may be a team in your league that has recently slid from second place to the fifth spot and is now starting to question whether they have the right roster construction to win.
Now, here are some players to consider in your trade talks. Please remember that you can always use the Yahoo Trade Market to determine how these players have been valued in other leagues.
Sell High
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
On the surface, Lugo seems to be delivering another season of steady fantasy production (3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP). Unfortunately, his strikeout and walk rates have both taken a turn for the worse, and his 11.9% K-BB ratio is notably lower than his mark in his previous two seasons as a starter. Lugo has been saved by a .253 BABIP and an 83.1% strand rate, and most of his ERA estimators are north of 4.50. The veteran has always had a mediocre ceiling due to his marginal strikeout rate, but now he also has a concerning floor.
Kyle Finnegan, Washington Nationals
Admittedly, I recommended trading Finnegan at this time last year, and I was wrong. However, I’m betting that this year the Nats will make smarter deadline decisions and get something for a closer that they don’t need. The right-hander is a pending free agent, and with Washington sitting 7.5 games out of the NL Wild Card, they should move him to a contender in late July. Finnegan is not effective enough to work the ninth inning for a contending team, which would make him waiver wire fodder if dealt, and the trade deadline is far enough away that managers can get full value for him right now. He currently sits third in the league with 18 saves.
Sell Low
Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels
Kikuchi is likely more of a “sell medium” thanks to his 2.92 ERA. Still, there is a limit on how much value a manager can get in a trade involving someone with a 1.47 WHIP. This is a case where the WHIP tells the story to a much greater degree than the ERA, as Kikuchi has struggled with walks so much (12.3%) that he cannot be expected to maintain a respectable ERA much longer. Managers who can get anything of value for the southpaw should be eager to make the move.
Buy High
Ranger Suárez, Philadelphia Phillies
Buying high on Suárez should still mean just a moderate expenditure, as the 29-year-old doesn’t carry much weight in fantasy circles. This year, he opened the season on the injured list and was hammered in his initial start (3.2 IP, 7 ER) before settling in and logging a 1.36 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over his next five outings. The right-hander has one of the lowest xERA marks (2.55) of any starter, and he is coming off an effective 2024 season (3.46 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Suárez is backed by an excellent team and should be a reliable mid-rotation fantasy starter the rest of the way.
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Buy Low
Jhoan Durán, Minnesota Twins
Fantasy managers must be frustrated with the fact that Durán has tallied just 10 saves. His total ranks 19th among all relievers, with pitchers such as Will Vest and Aroldis Chapman sitting ahead of him. This is hardly what was expected when the hard-throwing righty was the 11th reliever off the board in Yahoo drafts.
Still, Durán has been excellent this year (1.19 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and the Twins have posted a solid 35-31 record. The final scores of Minnesota’s games have simply been unfortunate for Durán, as the club ranks 25th in team saves, which is where we normally see only clubs with losing records. There will likely be a stretch of narrow wins for the Twins, and Durán will be ready to close out those games.
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