Fantasy baseball second half breakthrough hitters: Owen Caissie, Lawrence Butler, more

The second half of the 2026 MLB season is around the corner, and there’s still time to make up ground in your fantasy baseball leagues. If you’ve dealt with injuries or poor performance or just can’t quite seem to string together consistent success, there is still time to make tweaks to get your team to a title.

Similarly, there is still time for players to make tweaks to find another level of success. For some, we’ve been seeing the groundwork for that success laid already. In this article, I’m going to highlight hitters who may have failed to meet our expectations over the entirety of the first half but are doing some intriguing things with the bat over the last few weeks.

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To do that, I created a leaderboard of hitters with at least 30 plate appearances between May 18th and July 12th (about six weeks). I looked at hard-hit rate, barrel rate, swinging strike rate, and overall plate discipline (which I used as Z-Swing% – O-Swing%). I then removed anybody who had been clearly below average in any category. I also searched by wRC+ and removed anybody who had clearly been above average overall, since most of those players have already been producing and don’t need to bounce back or break through. (I did leave on a few hitters with good wRC+ marks who weren’t rostered in enough fantasy leagues, but we’ll get to that soon).

Since this article is based on recent MLB performance, I should make it clear that it does not feature injured players or rookies who will be making their debut after the All-Star break (Joshua Baez). It also doesn’t include players who have played well but might gain value in a new role (like Justin Foscue or Andrew Vaughn). I’m simply focusing on players who either struggled to meet our expectations in the first half, but are players I think are due for much better months in August and September.

So who are they?

Hitters Who Should Be Rostered in More Leagues

These are all players whose wRC+ over the last 5-6 weeks is already good but are simply rostered in too few fantasy baseball leagues based on their recent production. For this, I used Yahoo roster rates.

Listen, you don’t need me to tell you about what Esmerlyn Valdez is doing, and my colleague James Schiano recorded a video on him during the All-Star break. The 15.6% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) is concerning, and the overall contact rate is bad, so this might not last. However, the power is very real, and he actually doesn’t chase out of the zone much. That doesn’t help alleviate the concern that his contact rate is so poor, but the contact metrics are all there for him, so he should at least be added everywhere to see if he can keep this up.

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James and I have also written about Cole Young and A.J. Ewing a bunch in our weekly waiver wire articles in recent weeks. Last week, we mentioned that Ewing is hitting .274 since May 18th with six home runs, 22 runs scored, 21 RBI, and seven steals. He has started to lift the ball a touch more, which has led to more barrels to go along with his 42.6% hard-hit rate. He’s hitting leadoff pretty consistently for the Mets now, which adds to his value. Similarly, over the same stretch, Cole Young is hitting .257 with eight home runs, 25 runs scored, and 17 RBI. He’s starting to drive the ball a little more and get to the pull side more often (54% pull rate over this stretch), which has led to league-average hard-hit rates. Like with Ewing, it’s nice to see a young player adjusting and finding an approach that works for him, and we like that Young is finding more pitches he can drive out of the yard.

Josh Bell is a streaky veteran, but he is selling out for power more this season, and he’s been hitting the ball well heading into the break with 10 home runs, an 11.8% barrel rate, and a 45% hard-hit rate since May 18th. It may not last, or he may be traded if Minnesota falls out of the playoff race, but the results have been there right now. Andrew Benintendi is another oft-ignored veteran who is producing better than people might expect, hitting .240 since May 18th but with seven home runs, 27 RBI, elite swing decisions, and a better-than-average barrel rate and hard-hit rate. It’s not sexy, but it gets the job done. Similarly, Ty France has taken over as the primary first baseman in San Diego and produced with a .260 average since May 18th to go along with seven home runs, 19 RBI, an 8.4% barrel rate, and a 45.3% hard-hit rate. He has a 42.1% Z-Swing% – O-Swing%, so even though he expands the zone a little more than we’d like, he’s also hyper aggressive in the zone, which has helped level it out.

Heliot Ramos – OF, Giants

In the off-season, I mentioned Heliot Ramos as a potential breakout hitter this season because he was entering his athletic prime and was having a really good season last year before some defensive miscues led to mental struggles that carried over into the batter’s box. This season, Ramos got off to a slow start and then got hurt, but since May 18th, he has a 21% barrel rate, a 58% hard-hit rate, and an 18.8% blasts per contact rate. Blasts are a Statcast metric that measures when a batter squares up a ball and does so at a high bat speed. According to Statcast research, blasts lead to a .563 batting average, 1.182 slugging percentage, and a +34 Run Value. Non-blasted batted balls come out to a .231 batting average, .295 slugging percentage, and -5 Run Value. So, pretty clearly, blasts are usually balls that result in impactful contact, and Ramos’ 18.8% mark is well above the league average of 13.3%. I was in on Ramos before the season, so I’m still in now.

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Owen Caissie – OF, Marlins

Caissie currently being on the injured list likely hurts his roster rate, as does his 16.6% SwStr% since May 18th. However, I think Caissie can have fantasy value even with elevated swing and miss because of his quality of contact. He’s likely never going to hit for a super high batting average, but he is hitting .271 since May 18th despite that elevated SwStr%. Part of that is because he has a 20.3% barrel rate, 51% hard-hit rate, and 21.3% blasts per contact. Caissie also has a better-than-league-average Z-Swing%-O-Swing% because he has a league-average zone swing rate and a better-than-average chase rate. That lets us know that a lot of the swing-and-miss isn’t about swing decisions; it’s about the consequence of looking to drive the ball out of the yard on most of his swings. We’d still rather he make more contact, but if he’s going to do damage when he does make contact, we can take that gamble.

Kyle Karros – 3B, Rockies

Karros has quietly been one of the most impactful hitters in baseball over the last 6-8 weeks. Since May 18th, he’s hitting .297 with an 11.2% barrel rate, 47.4% hard-hit rate, and elite 43.8% Z-Swing% – O-Swing%. The league average since May 18th is 35.3%. Karros is not only very aggressive in the zone, but he doesn’t chase outside of the zone. Pair that with an above-average barrel rate and home games played in Coors Field, and I think he deserves more love in fantasy leagues and is not just a Coors-only play.

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Garrett Mitchell – OF, Brewers

We featured Mitchell in our waiver wire articles a bunch earlier in the season, and he’s back to putting up really solid numbers. Since May 18th, he’s hitting .315 with six home runs, 24 runs scored, and 21 RBI. That’s with a 14.8% barrel rate, a 50.4% hard-hit rate, and 24.7% blasts per contact. The tools have always been loud, but the plate approach has been the question. Over this stretch, he has a 16.4% swinging strike rate, but his 29.3% chase rate and 82.2% zone contact rate are actually improvements from what we’ve seen before and are more in line with MLB averages. In fact, his Z-Swing% – O-Swing% is above average over this span, so maybe Mitchell is learning to make better swing decisions. Like with Caissie, he will likely always have some swing-and-miss to his game, but he may be able to mitigate the risk of that with improved discipline.

Anthony Seigler – 2B/3B, Red Sox

You’d be forgiven for not realizing that Seigler is hitting .257 in 85 plate appearances since May 18th, with 13 runs scored, and has been the regular leadoff man for the Red Sox. Seigler, who also came over in the Kyle Harrison trade with the Brewers, has a below-average barrel rate, but has been league-average with his hard-hit rate and makes elite swing decisions. He also has just an 8.1% swinging strike rate and has the profile of a solid top-of-the-order hitter for Boston. He doesn’t have tons of fantasy upside because he lacks significant power, but he could be a solid source of average and runs and should be added in most deeper formats,

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Lane Thomas – OF, Royals

We’ve seen Thomas have stretches of prolonged fantasy relevance before, and he’s enjoying a nice stretch of late. Since May 18th, he’s hitting .253 with six home runs, 18 runs scored, and 23 RBI in 166 plate appearances. That comes with an 8% barrel rate, 43.8% hard-hit rate, and 15.8% blasts per contact, which are all above average. He has also been making elite swing decisions, with a 42.7% Z-Swing% – O-Swing% (reminder that 35.3% is average). Even with Vinnie Pasquantino back, Thomas has continued to play regularly and should be rostered in far more leagues.

Second-Half Bounceback Hitters

Now we’ll focus on some hitters who are actually producing at below league-average rates over the last six weeks.

More than a few names on this list are veterans who have not produced to their usual level over the last six weeks. You’re probably not cutting any of Christian Yelich, Christian Walker, Ian Happ, or Alec Bohm, but you’re certainly getting scared or feeling disappointed. Walker is probably the toughest bet to bounce back. Most of his metrics here are league average, but even a league-average barrel rate and hard-hit rate with above-average swing decisions should lead to an above-average performance. Bohm, oddly, has the highest barrel rate of the group since May 18th. He also has an above-average hard-hit rate and makes elite swing decisions while playing in a good lineup in a good home park. The story of a rebound is easy to tell yourself. Happ and Yelich both have hard-hit rates around 42% and league-average barrel rates while making above-average swing decisions. I don’t see either one of them getting back to their peak value, but they should at least be solid hitters who are still running a little bit as well.

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I should note that Jacob Gonzalez should not be on this list. He did qualify with a 41% hard-hit rate in his 98 plate appearances, and his overall Z-Swing% – O-Swing% was above average, but you could say he kept his head above water in his MLB debut, not much more. He was then demoted to Triple-A as Munetaka Murakami returned from the injured list but was then quickly traded to the Pirates on Friday for the 34th pick in Saturday’s draft. The Pirates apparently wanted Gonzalez, a minor league shortstop, to replace Konnor Griffin in the short term. His Triple-A numbers were great, and there’s a chance he gets to play regularly for a good Pirates offense, so maybe we see that breakthrough.

I already wrote about Jackson Merrill recently when looking at hitters who should be hitting for more power. In that article, I mentioned that Merrill had an above-average barrel rate and Pull Air% but should see more home runs in the humid air and with less drag on the ball. He’s making good swing decisions and being really aggressive in the zone with above-average bat speed, which should all work. He’s perhaps being too aggressive outside of the zone, which has added more swing-and-miss to his game, but he feels too talented to let that continue.

Cam Smith – OF, Astros

I feel like I can’t quit Cam Smith. In the preseason, he was my runner-up choice to be a second-year breakout, and the season has not been kind to him. He’s hitting just .218 in 94 games with 12 home runs and 34 RBI. Yet, if you isolate from May 18th on, a few interesting things stand out. First of all, his 10.3% barrel rate, 46.3% hard-hit rate, and 20.1% blasts per contact are all well above average. He is also making really strong swing decisions, with a 41.6% Z-Swing% – O-Swing%. On top of that, he has 77 mph bat speed, which is among the top in the entire league. His SwSTr% is slightly elevated at 11.8%, and we’d love to see him hit the ball in the air more, but this is a young hitter with elite physical tools, good plate discipline, and strong quality of contact. At some point, it’s going to click

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Carter Jensen – C, Royals

It has seemingly begun to click for Jensen, who had a strong month of June, but his overall stats are below average, and his 91.9 wRC+ since May 18th is below average, so he fits on this list. We knew the power was legit with Jensen, and the barrel rate and hard-hit rate will attest to that, but it’s nice to see that his plate discipline is also improving. From May 18th on, he has a 40% Z-Swing% – O-Swing%, thanks to just a 26% chase rate. He has good bat speed and makes enough contact, so there are few holes in his profile.

Lawrence Butler – OF, Athletics

Some of Butler’s struggles in the first half certainly came down to health. After having surgeries on both of his knees in the offseason, it’s understandable that he may not have been the same hitter right out of the gates. Since May 18th, Butler is hitting just .225 in 127 plate appearances, but he has a 41.8% hard-hit rate, 14.2% blasts per contact, and a 41.1% Z-Swing% – O-Swing%. His bat speed is 74.3 mph, which is well above average, and he’s not expanding the zone. These are all good things. His groundball rate is slowly decreasing, and he hit .281/.352/.438 in June, so we may be getting the old Lawrence Butler back.

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Victor Mesa Jr. – OF, Rays

You don’t have to tell me that it’s weird to see Victor Mesa Jr. on here. I almost didn’t keep him in the article because I was so surprised he was here, but I have to trust the process on this one. In 104 plate appearances since May 18th, Mesa Jr. is hitting just .213, and I keep thinking he’s going to lose playing time to Jonny DeLuca. However, Mesa Jr. also has an 8.9% barrel rate, 38.8% hard-hit rate, and elite 43.9% Z-Swing% – O-Swing%. He has 74.1 mph bat speed, is aggressive in the zone, and, despite chasing outside of the zone more than we’d like, has just a 10.6% SwStr%. He’s 24 years old. He hit .329 in 18 games at Triple-A this season and .301 in 42 games there last year. I dunno. I’ve seen weirder things happen than that kind of profile breakthrough.

Blaze Jordan – 3B, Cardinals

Jordan has just .237 in 83 plate appearances since coming up for the Cardinals, but there are some intriguing aspects of his approach and quality of contact. He has a league-average 7.4% barrel rate, but an above-average 44.1% hard-hit rate, and a strong 16.1% blasts per contact rate. His 73.9% zone swing rate is far above average, which helps to offset his slightly above average chase rate, and his 10.2% SwStr% is above average, so his approach doesn’t lead to much swing and miss. His 73 mph bat speed is fine, and this whole approach is essentially pretty good. He has a pretty good feel for the zone. Pretty good bat speed. Pretty good contact rates and really solid hard-hit rates. Overall, that’s a profile that can work in an everyday role.

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Colt Keith – 3B, Tigers

I think I’m done believing in Colt Keith based on his quality of contact. He keeps showing up on leaderboards and has put up the emptiest bat speed and hard contact I’ve seen. But, then again, he did have one three-home-run game, so we know he has it in him. Yet, since May 18th, Keith is hitting just .194 in 135 plate appearances. Of course, that comes with a 10.6% barrel rate, 41.3% hard-hit rate, and 16% blasts per contact. He’s perhaps too passive in the zone, but he also doesn’t chase, so his Z-Swing% – O-Swing% is above average as well. His bat speed has dropped down to just 72.1 mph, which is only slightly above average, but he makes tons of contact and tons of hard contact, so there is always a chance this starts to work more consistently