Making bold predictions in the middle of the season is a tough task. It’s easy to envision change after a long break during the offseason, but by now, the train has left the station and is barreling down the tracks. It’s hard to envision things changing dramatically from their current path, although we know that will happen for some teams. Here are my best picks for major shifts in the second half for fantasy baseball.
Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions for Second Half
Rangers will have a top-10 offense
The Rangers arrived at the All-Star break sitting first in team ERA but 22nd in runs scored, which has resulted in a 48-49 record. But things are starting to turn around offensively in Texas, as this talented group of hitters will catch fire in the second half and spur the team into a postseason berth.
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Corey Seager has already recovered from a rough month of June and will be one of baseball’s best hitters in the second half. Adolis Garcia has trended up, Marcus Semien showed signs of life in June and Jake Burger is ready to repeat his 2024 season, when he logged a .635 OPS in the first half and a .901 mark after the break. But the big push with come from a pair of youngsters — Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. Langford is finally healthy and has played well in July. Carter looked great in June (.951 OPS) before struggling this month.
Simply put, there is too much talent in this lineup to remain in the bottom half of the league.
Tigers will run away with the ERA title
Of the Tigers’ 21 second-half series, only three will come against teams that rank among the top 10 in runs scored. Meanwhile, they will play 13 series against teams that sit in the bottom half of baseball in runs scored. And seven of those 13 series will match the Tigers’ talented pitching staff against teams that rank among the bottom-5 in runs scored. Detroit’s hurlers will benefit from leading a division with three abysmal offenses (Guardians, Royals, White Sox) and one group (Twins) that is nothing special. Fantasy managers can use this knowledge to make wise moves for Tigers pitchers.
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Reese Olson can be acquired via trade in 12-team leagues and should be added from waivers in 10-team formats. Jack Flaherty will continue to strike out batters at a high rate while lowering his 4.65 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. And although I would normally predict regression for Casey Mize, who has outpitched his expected stats, I can see a scenario where his schedule helps him to stay ahead of the competition down the stretch. Finally, there is still room to add Will Vest, who is 64% rostered on Yahoo and will have plenty of second-half save chances if the team doesn’t add a new closer at the trade deadline.
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Dodgers will lead the NL in second half ERA
This would not have seemed like a bold prediction in March, but that was before the Dodgers arrived at the Midsummer Classic with a 4.29 ERA that ranks 23rd in the Senior Circuit. The low ranking is not surprising, given that there have been just two Dodgers who have made more than 10 starts. Still, this group remains loaded with potential, as they could roll out a top-3 of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell by the end of the month.
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Clayton Kershaw (3.38 ERA) has had a successful return from the injured list, and Shohei Ohtani (1.00 ERA) is slowly but surely building up his stamina. Emmet Sheehan (2.03 ERA) has also emerged as a potential game-changer. The guess here is that Dustin May (4.96 ERA) will soon be pushed out of the rotation and that Roki Sasaki (4.72 ERA) will head to Triple-A when he returns from injury. Blake Treinen will soon return from the IL to bolster the bullpen, while Tanner Scott (4.09 ERA) and Kirby Yates (3.90 ERA) will pitch better than they have so far. And of course, this deep-pockets franchise will add a reliever or two at the deadline. Wise fantasy managers will look to buy low on Dodgers’ hurlers while they still can.
Brenton Doyle will be a top-100 player
From a fantasy perspective, few players have been as disappointing as Doyle, who was drafted on average at pick 78.2 in Yahoo leagues and sits 721st on the season-long player rater. Doyle got off to a fine start and was batting .315 with an .888 OPS on April 17, when he and his wife tragically lost their unborn child. Since then, the 27-year-old hasn’t looked like himself, batting .178 with a .510 OPS.
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Still, he has been plagued by a .233 BABIP during his slump, which is an incredibly low mark for someone who plays his home games in the best park for promoting base knocks. His average exit velocity is a career-best 90.2 mph this year, and his expected stats are similar to those from 2024 when he hit .260 with 23 homers and 30 steals. A few days off and a late July homestand are going to get Doyle on track. Get ready to add him in 10-team leagues.
Chandler Simpson will hit a home run
My final prediction could be the boldest one of them all. Between the Majors and Minors, Simpson has accumulated 1,250 career at-bats. He has never hit a baseball over the outfield wall. The speedster’s one career homer was of the inside-the park variety, when he was playing in Double-A. And truthfully, Simpson doesn’t give himself many chances to go deep. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, and does his best to maximize his incredible sprint speed by logging one of the lowest fly ball rates in baseball (17.2%).
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But the guess here is that the 24-year-old will clear an outfield wall once down the stretch, as the Rays temporarily call home to a launching pad and will also visit several hitter-friendly venues. Of course, hitting one homer won’t change anything for Simpson’s fantasy value, but this prediction is more about him staying in the lineup on a regular basis, which will allow him to hit .300 and lead the Majors in second-half steals. Simpson even hit leadoff in the Rays’ final game before the break. He should be rostered in every Roto league and some points leagues.
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