At this point in the season we should have a pretty good idea of what the Pittsburgh Penguins are capable of and what kind of team they are. They have a 60-game sample size, which is pretty much three quarters of the season, and really do not have any secrets. We know what they do well, we know where they struggle, we know what they need both short-term and long-term.
Along those lines, there are some pretty big discussion points that have been coming up in recent days and weeks that could present varying levels of concern.
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So let’s talk about some of them and try to figure out what, exactly, your concern level is with each of them. I will rate my concern level on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being no concern and 5 being major concern.
1. The Penguins faceoff struggles without Sidney Crosby
We knew Crosby being out of the lineup for a couple of weeks was going to present some problems for the Penguins. He is Sidney Crosby. He is still their best player and one of the best players in hockey. He still does a lot of heavy lifting offensively, and has also eaten a lot of tough minutes this season against other team’s top lines. That is difficult to replace.
He is also the Penguins best faceoff man, and in the games he has missed since the return from the Olympic break the Penguins have been abysmal in the faceoff circle.
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My concern level: 2
Look, I am not saying it is okay to lose every faceoff. It is obviously beneficial to win more of them. But my opinion on faceoffs has always been they matter in individual cases, not big picture cases.
It is a micro event. Not a macro event.
The top-four faceoff teams in the NHL this season are the Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators and Edmonton Oilers. Those teams, for the most part, stink. Their faceoff success is not helping them. Because they stink after the faceoff.
The bottom-four faceoff teams in the NHL this season are the Buffalo Sabres, Minnesota Wild, Chicago Blackhawks and Anaheim Ducks. The Tampa Bay Lightning are fifth-worst. Those teams, outside of Chicago, are all very good. Their faceoff struggles are not hurting them. Because they are very good after the faceoff.
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Yeah, winning more faceoffs from a big picture outlook might help you win some of those smaller picture faceoffs that actually matter, but no matter the situation what you do after the faceoff is often times just as important, if not more important, than the faceoff itself.
Crosby will return. They will get better in this area when that happens. Do not trade an asset for somebody just because they win faceoffs.
2. Evgeni Malkin’s contract
Aside from what they do before Friday’s NHL Trade Deadline, this might be THE story with the Pittsburgh Penguins right now. Malkin is an unrestricted free agent after this season, he clearly wants to play another season and play it in Pittsburgh, but there seems to be some real hesitancy on the part of the front office to get him signed.
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Malkin and Kyle Dubas reportedly met this week face-to-face, but there is still no contract.
Coming into this season there was a belief that Malkin could retire after this season, making any potential contract talks totally meaningless. But his strong play, and the Penguins being ahead of schedule in their timeline, have certainly changed the outlook for a lot of people. Including, perhaps, Malkin.
Is this something the Penguins and Malkin will eventually settle before he ends up playing for, I don’t know, the Florida Panthers?
My concern level: 3
On one hand, Dubas is pretty busy with things right now when it comes to building the roster and making moves. Hammering out a contract extension that could probably wait a few weeks is most likely not high on his priority list at the moment.
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It would also probably be a pretty easy thing to get signed after the trade deadline or after the season.
I could also see the Penguins wanting to see how the rest of this season goes with both Malkin and the team as a whole. He is still playing really well. But he is also going to be 40 years old next season and is playing through some kind of shoulder/upper-body issue. That stuff can linger the older you get.
You do have to be realistic about these things. There are not a lot of 40 year olds that play at a high level in the NHL, and while Malkin could absolutely be one of them (and I suspect he will be), you want to make sure you are making the best possible decision. Especially if you intend to compete next season.
Personally, I think it is a slam-dunk decision. He can obviously still play, he has developed an instant chemistry with Egor Chinakhov, he has already shifted over to wing, he is probably not going to cost a lot of money, they have a ton of salary cap space to work with, and even at 40 I am not sure they are going to find a more productive player at the contract he would likely get.
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At this point I still think it probably gets done. The longer it goes without it getting done, however, the more you have to start wondering.
3. The March schedule
We have been looking at this all season and wondering what the Penguins would do with it. Not only do they play a very condensed schedule with a lot of games squeezed into a very short period of time, the overwhelming majority of these games are against playoff teams, top Stanley Cup contenders, and some of the best teams in hockey. At the moment, they are playing them without their captain and best player.
The month got off to a strong start with an extremely impressive win over the Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday. They followed that by playing a solid game in Boston, but were unable to buy a goal.
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My concern level: 4
At least for now. It is not just the quality of opponents that plays into this, but also the number of games squeezed into the month and the back-to-back situations. That is a lot of hockey for a team that, while mixing in more young talent, has a lot of veterans over the age of 30 on it.
The good news is the Penguins have put themselves into a good situation with a pretty solid cushion between them and the non-playoff teams. At some point you also have to imagine the Columbus Blue Jackets will start losing a few more games, while the Washington Capitals might be selling away pieces before the NHL Trade Deadline on Friday.
The Penguins basically just need to play .500 hockey the rest of the way and a playoff spot should be theirs. They could probably even go a little lower than that and still get in. They are very capable of that, especially given the way they have played against the top teams in the NHL this season. It is still going to be a big test. They still have to pass it.
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