Be honest, you’ve already scribbled a win-loss projection for your preferred SEC team this summer and wasted ink figuring out your squad’s various playoff scenarios. It’s cool, we all have. The league itself is gunning for bragging rights this year, considering the Big Ten’s current two-year reign on college football’s throne.
Not every one of the SEC’s litany of expected good teams will meet or surpass expectations, however. And there are a couple others who could thwart potential paths to the postseason given the complexities of schedules.
Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for every SEC team leading into the 2025 season.
All conference title odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Odds to win conference title: +480
Best case 12-0: Going to put this out there: Everything must go right for the Crimson Tide to go unblemished against this daunting schedule. It’s possible, however, given the roster strengths. The handful of games that will swing either a playoff berth or another forgettable finish come against Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma and Auburn.
Worst case: 8-4: All hell will break loose among Alabama supporters if the Crimson Tide stub their toe against Florida State or Wisconsin before opening SEC play at Georgia on Sept. 27. The Seminoles have a new offense under Gus Malzahn and the Badgers are struggling to find footing with Luke Fickell in charge. Even with those games out of the way, Alabama has six matchups with teams inside CBS Sports’ post-spring top 25 rankings. We’re setting the floor at eight wins. If DeBoer gets Alabama to the playoff, this team will have earned it.
Odds to win conference title: +20000
Best case, 8-4: Look away, Razorbacks. Unless quarterback Taylen Green plays like a Heisman contender, surpassing expectations with a top-tier finish is going to be next to impossible. The SEC opener at Ole Miss will reveal a ton about this team and its offseason roster changes, along with how Arkansas fares the following two weeks. That’s the critical junction of the season for the Razorbacks.
Worst case 3-9: Not only does Arkansas play multiple top-15 teams during league play, but the Razorbacks must entertain Group of Five contender Memphis on the road and host last year’s national runner-up Notre Dame in Fayetteville on Sept. 27. What happened to the easy wins in the nonconference for a struggling Sam Pittman? Arkansas can take some solace in the fact both open dates come before tough road matchups at Tennessee and LSU.
Auburn Tigers
Odds to win conference title: +2000
Best case 9-3: There is going to be a logjam of SEC teams that are good, but not elite this fall. Auburn might be part of that group. What matters is who the Tigers beat and where their strength of schedule ranks at season’s end. Remember — this is the most optimistic observation possible for the Tigers. If Hugh Freeze is anywhere near the payoff conversation, he’ll pass the necessary tests from the natives needed for job security.
Worst case 5-7: Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Those are the games Auburn fans expect to win, but often have not in recent years. Of course, very few of those contests matter if the Tigers fail in the opener at Baylor and lose both of their first SEC games on the road against Oklahoma and Texas A&M.
Odds to win conference title: +2200
Best case 10-2: A year after staying above water through arguably the toughest schedule in college football history, Florida faces a similar challenge in 2025 — though maybe to as daunting when you have DJ Lagway at quarterback. Ten wins against this slate would mean a near-automatic playoff berth as an at-large selection.
Worst case 6-6: There might not be a team in the country with two tougher road games than what the Gators must endure in September — at LSU and Miami. Losing both would be catastrophic given a home bout with Texas comes just two weeks later. Five games in November include Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee — and that’s where this program got hot last fall.
Georgia Bulldogs
Odds to win conference title: +310
Best case 12-0: Why not Georgia? Few have picked last year’s SEC champions to repeat in Atlanta and Kirby Smart has likely played that narrative to an infinite degree inside the locker room. This is the Bulldogs’ most exciting home schedule in years with playoff-worthy bouts against Alabama and Texas and an expected rude welcoming of Ole Miss to Sanford Stadium. If Georgia conquers that trio, the Bulldogs are back in the playoff.
Worst case 8-4: The only time Georgia has lost three or more games during the regular season under Smart came in his debut season (2016). It would take an all-systems failure from Gunner Stockton, Mike Bobo and this offense for history to repeat itself, but the Bulldogs do play five ranked teams and travel to formidable Auburn and Georgia Tech as well.
Kentucky Wildcats
Odds to win conference title: +30000
Best case 6-6: Kentucky needs quality production from the quarterback spot with former Texas A&M passer and Incarnate Word star Zach Calzada set to start. The Wildcats have several new starters up front, lost their top two wideouts and have a couple personnel holes defensively left to fill. All that said, there are some manageable league contests, especially if those circled teams fail to impress early.
Worst case 3-9: On paper, this is one of the weaker rosters Mark Stoops put together since his arrival. We’re setting the bar pretty low, right? Losing top assistant and recruiting Vince Marrow to rival Louisville this summer had to be painful. The Wildcats play seven, potentially eight, games against top 25 opponents. And they could be at least a touchdown underdog in each.
LSU Tigers
Odds to win conference title: +700
Best case 11-1: The Tigers have enjoyed two unbeaten regular seasons since the turn of the century and won the national championship to cap one of those years (2019). Brian Kelly has accomplished the feat three times — once at Cincinnati and the others at Notre Dame — without any hardware to show for it. Could that change this season? Kelly’s future may depend on it. There are potentially seven ranked opponents on a landmine-filled schedule. On the other hand, Garrett Nussmeier returns and he’s backed by the nation’s top-ranked transfer portal class.
Worst case 6-6: It’s going to take more than OxiClean to remove the stain of the Tigers’ five consecutive losses in season openers. They’ll try to snap it this year at Clemson inside the other Death Valley. The preseason favorites in the ACC could make it ugly for the Tigers if Cade Klubnik is on. Trips to Alabama and Oklahoma in November are critical as well. If the Tigers do finish .500, that’s going to create a major job vacancy in the SEC. Kelly knows it given the resources pushed toward this year’s team.
Odds to win conference title: +30000
Best case 5-7: The two biggest games of the year for the Bulldogs might be the road matchup with Arizona State in Week 2 and the SEC opener on Sept. 21 against Florida. Those are momentum-changing opportunities for a program in dire need of some positivity. Taking it on the chin in both would be tough to overcome if this team wants to get to the postseason.
Worst case 2-10: Another winless season against SEC opponents? That would be a bitter pill to swallow for second-year coach Jeff Lebby. His team showed some fight last fall despite the dubious record, including a single-possession loss to eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State and a 41-31 setback at Georgia. Almost doesn’t count, however. It was ugly and that might not change in 2025.
Missouri Tigers
Odds to win conference title: +5500
Best case 10-2: Eli Drinkwitz is an overachiever relative to the talent gap his program faces against SEC elites. Not that Missouri is lacking in NIL resources, but the Tigers don’t have the two-deeps that Georgia and Alabama do. Missouri’s a blue-collar program and annual tough out that often manages to hang around the top 20. With former Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula taking over and ex-ULM star Ahmad Hardy in the backfield, this team will maintain its physicality-first mindset this fall.
Worst case 5-7: Missing out on bowl season with this schedule might be impossible and would require several unexpected losses, including setbacks at Arkansas and Vanderbilt during the second half of the season. If Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels comes to Faurot Field and puts on a show in Week 2, he might expose defensive issues that could linger given the talented signal callers they’ll see the rest of the way.
Oklahoma Sooners
Odds to win conference title: +2400
Best case 10-2: Give Brent Venables a raise if he wins 10 regular-season games against this slate. It’s going to be a massive challenge, but the Sooners believe they’re up for it with an offensive talent overhaul and defense now led by Venables. Getting past Michigan in Norman is the first hurdle and then there’s Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama and LSU to fight thereafter. Happy trails, Big 12 … right?
Worst case 5-7: Oklahoma invested in several critical pieces and notable staff changes to avoid a third losing record in Venables’ fourth season at the program. He’s on the SEC’s hottest seat and the only way to turn down its temperature is to win like one of the game’s blue bloods is accustomed to doing. In this glass half-empty glance, a failure to reach bowl eligibility means the Sooners flounder early and often, leading to further disarray.
Ole Miss Rebels
Odds to win conference title: +1200
Best case 11-1: The Rebels leave home only once prior to a game between the hedges against Georgia in Week 8. Not to dwell on the past, but last year’s loaded roster would’ve likely mopped the floor with this schedule with most of the Rebels’ season-defining games coming at home. That’s great news for new starting quarterback Austin Simmons, as long as he’s as advertised and the pieces around him gathered from the transfer market are immediate fits.
Worst-case scenario: 6-6, 3-5 — Unless Ole Miss suffers stunning losses to Kentucky, Arkansas and Tulane in September, this team’s going bowling on schedule favorability alone. After visiting Georgia and Oklahoma in the middle of the season, the only other road game comes at Mississippi State on Nov. 28. Anything can happen in the Egg Bowl, but the Rebels have won four of their last five in the rivalry series.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Odds to win conference title: +2800
Best case 10-2: On the doorstep of the program’s first playoff berth last fall, the Gamecocks caught fire during the second-half stretch highlighted by three wins over ranked teams and Superman-like performance from quarterback LaNorris Sellers. More of that could help surge South Carolina into the national title conversation once again, but it’s imperative this team handles its business early against Vanderbilt and Missouri before the SEC gauntlet truly begins.
Worst case 5-7: There’s a five-game stretch that could potentially include five opponents inside the top 20. Phew. Losses to LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama is what kept South Carolina from the promised land in 2024 and the Gamecocks play all three again. The home games against Oklahoma and the Crimson Tide are critical. Losses there would spell doom with trips to Oxford and College Station looming. The Palmetto Bowl against Clemson during rivalry weekend comes with big stakes as well.
Tennessee Volunteers
Odds to win conference title: +2700
Best case 10-2: To get back to the playoff, Tennessee needs to win 10 games. Nine victories will not guarantee anything after the regular season. For Vols to reach double-digit wins, former Appalachian State and UCLA quarterback Joey Aguilar will have to be a difference-maker. There are four swing games on this year’s slate in Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Florida.
Worst case 7-5: There are enough challenging SEC road contests to inspire worry. And don’t let that opener go south. The Vols entertain upstart Syracuse in Atlanta on Aug. 30 and the Orange are going to have a new transfer quarterback, too. From there, Tennessee’s SEC opener against Georgia a couple weeks later will be a great litmus test early for how this new-look offense translates on the field for Heupel and his staff. And Tennessee fans don’t need to be reminded that the Vols haven’t won in The Swamp against Florida in two decades.
Texas Longhorns
Odds to win conference title: +290
Best case 12-0: The Texas offense gets the accolades, but it’s defenders Anthony Hill and Collin Simmons that make this team one of the playoff frontrunners in 2025. The only program in the country with consecutive playoff semifinal appearances, the Longhorns are on the cusp of a national championship under Steve Sarkisian and this might be the team that gets it done on the big stage. The schedule opens with a bang at Ohio State and features Florida, Oklahoma and Georgia.
Worst case 8-4: Arch Manning struggling under the pressure or suffering an early-season injury might be the only scenarios in which Texas falls out of the AP Poll this fall. The Buckeyes could easily take the opener and road matchups at Florida and Georgia will bring hostile environments.
Texas A&M Aggies
Odds to win conference title: +1500
Best case 10-2: What does Mike Elko have planned for his encore in Year 2? For starters, a steady run game and weapons at the wide receivers spots for quarterback Marcel Reed. We’re not going to know what this Aggies team looks like until Week 3 given the schedule’s early softness. A 10-win finish with seven coming against SEC competition means the projection here includes a loss at likely playoff-bound Notre Dame.
Worst case 5-7: There’s some regression coming, right? Texas A&M finished one SEC win shy of a berth in the league title game last fall, part of a late-season falter that put a cloud over an otherwise notable campaign. If all goes according to plan for respective opponents, Texas A&M will not be favored on the road against Notre Dame, LSU or Texas — and the home showdown with Florida on Oct. 11 could get tricky if quarterback DJ Lagway is the breakout performer most are expecting.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Odds to win conference title:+30000
Best case 9-3: Diego Pavia has provided plenty of bulletin board material for opposing teams this fall after being granted another year of eligibility. Clark Lea has to love that level of confidence out of his quarterback, but it’s a bit scary, too. If Vanderbilt wins both of its road games against Virginia Tech and South Carolina in September, this team will be inside the top 20 going to Alabama on Oct. 9. That’s a tall ask considering the Commodores have lost 16 straight to the Gamecocks. What will Tennessee look like without Iamaleava at quarterback? Perhaps that’s a rivalry matchup the Commodores can steal at the end of the campaign.
Worst case 4-8: Virginia Tech, Alabama and Auburn all have their dates Vanderbilt circled in heavy Sharpie. Last season’s shocking losses left a lingering taste for the trio that hasn’t yet dissipated. Vanderbilt has more talent than the Hokies, but not against either SEC foe. LSU and Texas are on the schedule, too. This is brutal if you’re a Vanderbilt fan expecting a continued rise after last year’s trip to bowl season.
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