After being interested in Craig Kimbrel for what feels like a decade, the Rays finally brought him into the organization. Before you jump to any conclusions, no they haven’t made any dramatic changes to the shapes of his pitches aside from adding a tick more velocity to both breaking balls, but they have noticeably altered how he attacks hitters.
Below are his pitch usage rates against right- and left-handed hitters before and after joining the Rays:
|
Pitch Type |
RHB Usage Mets |
RHB Usage Rays |
LHB Usage Mets |
LHB Usage Rays |
|
Four-seamer |
81.3% |
67.3% |
75.1% |
64.3% |
|
Two-seamer |
– |
5.1% |
– |
– |
|
Knuckle Curve |
8.3% |
4.1% |
9.7% |
23.8% |
|
Sweeper |
11.3% |
23.5% |
18.2% |
2.4% |
|
Change-up |
– |
– |
0.6% |
9.5% |
Right away, a few meaningful changes stand out.
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Against right-handed hitters, Kimbrel has reduced his four-seam fastball usage by more than 10% while introducing a two-seam variant roughly 5% of the time. Overall, his fastball usage has dropped by about 9%.
That adjustment makes sense. Even the best fastballs tend to be the easiest pitches for hitters to damage, so relying on them less should improve Kimbrel’s run prevention over a larger sample. He’s also throwing his sweeper much more frequently against righties. While it may not grade as well as the knuckle curve that made him famous, the sweeper’s horizontal movement creates a more uncomfortable angle for same-handed hitters. The curveball is still part of the mix, but it’s now used primarily to keep righties from sitting on the fastball or sweeper.
The Rays have also significantly changed Kimbrel’s approach against left-handed hitters. Fastball usage is down by roughly 10%, curveball usage has more than doubled, and sweeper usage has been cut dramatically. The curveball’s shape plays more neutrally against lefties than the sweeper, making it a better fit in those matchups.
Surprise! There is a new pitch!
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In true Rays fashion, Kimbrel has also added an offspeed pitch — and he’s not simply flashing hitters the pitch — he’s throwing it nearly 10% of the time against left-handed hitters.
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It resembles a kick change with solid vertical separation off his fastball. It may only grade as an average offering, but it’s another pitch left-handed hitters must respect, making both his fastball and curveball more effective.
The Rays have built a plan that gives Kimbrel a better chance to succeed against modern hitters than the approach he used over the last few seasons. The results haven’t fully followed yet, but it’s early in his Rays career, and these usage changes should give Kimbrel a better chance to recapture some of the effectiveness he showed during his prime.
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Whether that translates into a permanent high-leverage role remains to be seen. If Manuel Rodriguez, Edwin Uceta, and Steven Wilson all return healthy, the bullpen crunch could eventually cost Kimbrel his roster spot.
But even if his stay in Tampa Bay is brief, there’s value in having a veteran with his baseball and life experience alongside any bullpen during a postseason race.
Read the full article here
