As the 2024 college football season draws to a close, various conference championship game scenarios are emerging. While conference expansion and the almost complete elimination of divisions make things a little more complicated, a few games can provide some clarity during a loaded Week 13 slate.
Two Power Four teams simply need a win to clinch a berth in their respective conference title games. Four more can make it in with a win in and losses elsewhere.
That isn’t even considering the conference championship spots that have already been decided. Tulane and Army will face off on Friday, Dec. 6 in the AAC Championship Game regardless of what happens over the next two weeks.
The SEC, which has six teams that could finish 10-2, is the only Power Four conference where no team has a path to clinch in Week 13. With that in mind, here are the conference championship game scenarios to keep an eye on in Week 13 of the 2024 college football season.
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ACC
Though nothing is finalized, the ACC is one of the more straightforward leagues when it comes to postseason outlooks. SMU is in poll position. All the Mustangs have to do is win this weekend against Virginia and they’re in the ACC Championship Game in their first season with the conference.
A loss doesn’t doom their hopes, either. SMU just needs to win one of its last two games to lock down a shot at the title.
Neither Miami nor Clemson can clinch this weekend, but they will definitely have their eyes on SMU. Miami would be eliminated from the race if it loses to Wake Forest and SMU beats Virginia. Clemson, meanwhile, does not control its own destiny.
The Tigers have already played their full eight-game ACC slate and they close the year against Citadel and South Carolina. That means they need Miami to lose one of its last two games or SMU to lose twice in order to steal a spot in the ACC Championship Game.
Betting odds to win conference title: Miami +105, SMU +160, Clemson +350
Big Ten
Oregon is already in the Big Ten Championship Game no matter what happens over the next couple of weeks. There are three schools in contention for the second spot.
Indiana has the simplest path: beat Ohio State in Week 13 and the Hoosiers are in. Easier said than done, but Curt Cignetti’s squad is one of just three undefeated teams left at this point.
Ohio State can take a big step toward Indianapolis with a win against Indiana. The Buckeyes would then need to finish the regular season by beating Michigan to set up a rematch with the Ducks.
Then there’s Penn State, which is still in the field but needs some help. Without diving too much into a very complex scenario, Penn State needs to beat Minnesota and get an Ohio State win over Indiana this weekend to the Nittany Lions alive.
Betting odds to win conference title: Ohio State -110, Oregon +115, Indiana +800, Penn State +5000
Big 12
The Big 12 is as wide open as it gets this late the season. Nine of the league’s 16 teams are still in contention for the conference title game. That being said, there is an upper tier of teams with a more realistic path.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the Big 12 Championship Game clinching scenarios to keep an eye on in Week 13:
Those are the obvious outcomes. There’s plenty of potential for chaos elsewhere.
Betting odds to win conference title: Colorado -125, BYU +330, Arizona State +350, Iowa State +750, Kansas State +15000, Baylor +20000, Texas Tech +25000, TCU +25000, West Virginia +30000
Conference USA
There are four teams still alive in the Conference USA Championship Game race: Jacksonville State, Sam Houston, Western Kentucky and Liberty. They all play each other over the final two weeks of the season.
Jacksonville State is in the best shape. All the Gamecocks — who face off against Sam Houston on CBS Sports Network Saturday — have to do is win one of their last two games. Western Kentucky can also make its way in by beating Liberty Saturday since it holds a head-to-head tiebreaker against Sam Houston.
Betting odds to win conference title: Jacksonville State +125, Western Kentucky +165, Sam Houston +475, Liberty +950
MAC
Three teams still control their own destiny: Miami (OH), Ohio and Bowling Green. However, there are a few outside of that exclusive group that still have a shot. No clinching scenarios this weekend but a Nov. 29 game between Miami (OH) and Bowling Green looms large.
Betting odds to win conference title: Bowling Green +115, Ohio +180, Miami (OH) +300, Buffalo +4000
Mountain West Conference
Boise State can make it to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by beating Wyoming Saturday. If the Broncos lose, they can still lock down a spot this weekend if UNLV drops its game against San Jose State Friday night.
A UNLV loss also opens the door for Colorado State to nab its own berth with a win against Fresno State Saturday night.
Betting odds to win conference title: Boise State -340, UNLV +450, Colorado State +550
Sun Belt
Nothing specific this weekend, but Marshall and Louisiana will make the Sun Belt Conference Championship game so long as they can both win out. A loss for either muddies the waters.
Betting odds to win conference title: Louisiana +100, James Madison +300, Georgia Southern +600, Marshall +700, South Alabama +1400, Texas State +4000, Old Dominion +7500, Arkansas State +25000, ULM +30000
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