My colleague Andrew Aziz has piqued my interest with his “What if” questions. I was given the go ahead to piggy back, or just plain steal his idea. I like the idea as compared to some of the dead period topics, most notably the “Lists” segments. So with his permission, I get to ask a question that has gnawed at me for some time.
To set the stage, we had just played the entire 2011 season without Peyton. It was ugly, but somehow slotted us with the #1 pick in the 2012 draft. Caldwell and Polian(s) were relieved of their jobs. Irsay had a major decision on his hands. He outwardly and likely internally struggled with the decision. Remember, Manning had signed a 5 year, 90 million dollar contract before the 2011 season had begun. The firings of Polian and Caldwell did not sit well with Manning and he was somewhat vocal about the locker room being on eggshells.
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This was a team that was just two years removed from being in the Super Bowl and one year removed from exiting the playoffs because of their inability to cover a kickoff, or kick the ball out of the end zone. We anguish at our inability to find a franchise QB during the Ballard era, but that 2011 team tried all the same avenues. They tried the respected backup, the journeyman, and the guy off the couch, all to no avail. This set off a series of events.
The Colts hired Grigson, nine days after firing Polian on Jan 11th. Pagano was hired to replace Caldwell on Jan 25th. Manning was due a $28 million an Mar 8th, but was cut a day prior. Irsay said that he did not believe that the Colts would be able to protect Peyton. The O-line that was on the field for most of the 2012 season would have been Castanzo, Reitz, Satele, McGlynn, and Winston. The line would have been a legitimate concern, but Grigson thought it enough to put a rookie QB behind it.
Now the what if. The Redskins offered up their #1 in 2012 (pick 6) and their #2 (#39), along with their #1 in 2013 and 2014 and secured the second pick of the draft to be RG3. This is where the speculation begins, but I don’t think it is out of the question to believe that they would have added their #2’s in both 2013 and 2014 to secure Luck. The Rams traded that pick at #6 to the Cowboys, for the 14th and 45th pick. This would have netted the Colts the 14th, 34th, 39th, 45th and 64th picks in the first three rounds, along with the Skins #1 and #2 in 2013 and 2014.
I can only believe that Grigson was hired, knowing that he would be taking Luck with the first pick and that Pagano was hired to cobble a defense that was good enough to balance a Luck led offense. He may not even have taken the job if he believed Manning would be returning, but as bad at drafting as he was, he could have filled a lot of gaps with 5 of the first 64 picks? Not to mention, one of those picks could have been used on Manning’s heir apparent from the likes of Osweiler, Wilson, Foles and Cousins. What if we had not hired Grigson and just kept the band together?
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If you want to give yourself 20/20 hindsight, would you have traded four more years of Manning, for the seven years that we got from Luck? I can admit that I get jealous whenever Peyton is associated with the Broncos and that could be why I have a hard time with the way things played out. He might have a role with the Colts right now? Probably not, as he seems to be living his preferred life, but the pull would be a lot greater if he had never left Indy.
I’m not anti-Luck, as he was exciting to watch and he could have been one of the best if he had been surrounded by a better cast. But, much of his success came from his ability to whip up on a weak division and playing just over .500 football against the rest of the league. I think what turned out to be a healthy Manning would have duplicated or exceeded his results.
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