Some of the best stories from every college football season come from coaches and programs that take a significant step forward in the win column after a disappointing campaign the previous year. In the transfer portal era, the idea that a new coach — or even a returning one with improved resources — can quickly reverse course is no longer an unreasonable expectation.
What might be unreasonable is expecting an Arizona State or Indiana story every season. Kenny Dillingham went 3-9 in Year 1 with the Sun Devils, then proceeded to win 11 games, claim the Big 12 title and make the College Football Playoff in Year 2. At Indiana, Curt Cignetti took over a program that had won just three games the previous season and led the Hoosiers to their first-ever 11-win campaign and a historic College Football Playoff appearance.
Last season also saw Deion Sanders take a major step forward at Colorado, improving the Buffs’ record by six wins from 2023 to 2024. East Carolina also swung a six-win improvement, as the Pirates underwent a midseason coaching change but finished strong with a bowl win against NC State. Elsewhere, South Carolina, TCU and Pitt each saw four-win improvements — a more common bounce-back for respected coaches at the power conference level.
We have identified a half-dozen turnaround team candidates below, along with their win total odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Last season: 2-10
- 2025 win total: 7.5 wins (Over +190, Under -240)
The Seminoles might have the best chance of matching Indiana and Arizona State’s eight-win turnarounds. After all, this program that won 13 games just two years ago, and there’s plenty of room for improvement after bottoming out in 2024. Even matching the oddsmakers’ expectations for the win total would have the Seminoles standing out as one of the top year-over-year improvements among power conference teams, with a five-win jump being more than fair considering the roster and Florida State’s admittedly challenging schedule.
Marked improvement is nice, but the Seminoles are chasing championships. Coach Mike Norvell rebooted his staff, bringing in Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and Tony White as defensive coordinator, among other changes. This season is about making a big leap out of the depths of despair — but in doing so, Florida State hopes to lay the foundation for the next move up to playoff contention.
- Last season: 5-7
- 2025 win total: 7.5 wins (Over -158, Under +128)
After back-to-back Pac-12 titles in 2021-22, Utah has taken a staggering step backward over the last two seasons. The Utes failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2013 after going 5-7 last year. Injuries have been a major issue — most notably at quarterback, where Cam Rising’s health has been a consistent source of frustration. Utah is moving forward at the position with New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier, an electric playmaker who led the Mountain West in total offense (3,934 yards) and could be one of the top signal callers in the Big 12. Dampier should feel comfortable in the scheme since the Utes also brought in Jason Beck, who served as offensive coordinator for the Lobos last season.
Utah’s offensive staff was in turmoil throughout the season, with Andy Ludwig stepping down as offensive coordinator in October. Beck’s decade-plus of experience — combined with Dampier’s playmaking — gives Utah a much brighter outlook.
Putting together a three-, four- or even five-win improvement in 2024 will come down to whether this team is playing its best football at the end of the season. If Utah can stay healthy and get hot heading into the final month, its ceiling could include playing for the Big 12 title.
- Last season: 5-7
- 2025 win total: 7.5 wins (Over -162, Under +132)
Auburn coach Hugh Freeze likely needs to improve by at least three wins to stay on steady ground. He is 11-14 with the Tigers, including a 5-11 mark against SEC opponents. Auburn fans have shown some patience, understanding the roster needed rebuilding, but after a major influx of talent — including a blue-chip quarterback from the portal, a blue-chip freshman quarterback and several top-rated transfers — it’s time for that investment to start paying off on the field.
The good news is that the pieces are in place for best season yet under Freeze. The defense should be as strong as it’s been since he arrived, and the wide receiver room features a collection of talent waiting to be unlocked to spark the offense. Quarterback Jackson Arnold (or freshman Deuce Knight) will determine how high Auburn can fly in what’s expected — and in some corners, demanded — to be a bounce-back season.
- Last season: 3-9
- 2025 win total: 5.5 wins (Over +126, Under -154)
Few programs need a four-win turnaround more than Oklahoma State, which started last year as a popular pick to win the Big 12 but finished with an 0-9 record in conference play. Everything was good until it wasn’t. Mistakes compounded while injuries piled up, leading to the Cowboys giving up at least 38 points in every game over the final two months of the season.
Whether coach Mike Gundy can mount a strong response should be clear by midseason. There’s a stretch of winnable games, many at home, before a tough finish begins with a trip to Texas Tech in Lubbock on Oct. 25. If the Cowboys don’t have four or five victories by then, it could be difficult to improve on last year’s total.
Our prediction is that Gundy reminds everyone why he’s one of the winningest coaches in the conference — and that last season’s three-win showing was an outlier, not the new standard. Oklahoma State has one of the largest transfer portal classes in the country and two new coordinators, but a fresh start might be exactly what the program needs to move forward.
If we were drafting coaches to win a game with a group of strangers, Gundy would be high on the board. The 2025 season is a test of that belief.
- Last season: 4-8
- 2025 outlook: 5.5 wins (Over -200, Under +160)
Last season, the Big 12 provided the blueprint for a chaos-filled conference schedule — one that could set the stage for Houston to rise from the bottom of the standings and emerge as a surprise contender. The Cougars’ first year under Willie Fritz provided plenty to talk about, as fans celebrated shocking upsets of Utah and Kansas State while cringing at an offense that failed to score a touchdown in three different conference games.
Conner Weigman arrives from Texas A&M hoping to provide a spark at quarterback — a position that’s been unsettled since Clayton Tune left the program after the 2022 season. And while there are no truly “easy” or “hard” conference draws in a parity-driven league like the Big 12, Houston does avoid several of the league’s expected contenders, including Utah, Kansas State, BYU and Iowa State.
Oddsmakers are setting expectations at a bounce-back to bowl eligibility, but the ceiling could be much higher. A four- or five-win improvement isn’t out of the question — and if it happens, Houston’s resurgence could be one of the Big 12’s top storylines.
- Last season: 1-11
- 2025 outlook: 4.5 wins (Over -164, Under +134)
There’s nowhere to go but up, right? Southern Miss truly bottomed out last season, coach Will Hall was fired in October and the team lost every remaining game by at least three touchdowns. The Golden Eagles totaled just 10 wins against FBS opponents over the previous four seasons, but bringing in coach Charles Huff from Marshall has reinvigorated the program and raised expectations for a significant bounceback.
Huff arrives in Hattiesburg after winning 10 games and the Sun Belt title in 2024, bringing nearly two dozen Marshall players with him in a transfer portal class that exceeds 50 additions. This is a coach with momentum, a school with a storied football tradition and a roster that’s been completely flipped during the transition. Huff may need a season or two before Southern Miss is contending for conference titles, but there’s no learning curve — and plenty of room for rapid improvement in the win column.
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