Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion.
My official Week 5 plays will be out later in the week, and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday.
Here are my early thoughts on the Week 5 matchups:
Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.5) vs. Oregon Ducks
This is the first game I circled before the season. I think it’s a great spot for Penn State. As good as Oregon has looked, the Ducks still haven’t beaten a team with a heartbeat. Penn State hasn’t either, but there is one big difference: the Nittany Lions are the more experienced team with a lot of players that have been in the program for a couple of years.
There is no denying that Oregon is very good. The Ducks lost a lot of production off last year’s team that earned the top seed in the College Football Playoff. However, Dan Lanning constructs a roster from year-to-year in this new age of college football better than any coach in the country. I actually think the Ducks lose this game and then could go on to win the National Championship.
Dante Moore has been excellent at quarterback for Oregon early in the year, but this will be his first big test in a hostile environment against a nasty Penn State defense. This is it for James Franklin. He has the horses this season. If Penn State loses at home, it will be really hard to back them in a big game ever again.
This is one of the toughest line movements to predict this entire season. The market is high on both sides. While I do expect money will come in on both sides, I am going to roll the dice and try to get Penn State under a field goal. My guess is you see this number move a lot both ways throughout the week.
Wait: Penn State -2.5 or better
Alabama Crimson Tide (+3.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
You know it’s a huge week when Alabama-Georgia isn’t even the biggest game on the card. I still have questions about both teams moving forward, although I lean the Crimson Tide getting over a field goal early.
My main worry about Georgia coming into the season was a defense that has steadily declined over the last two years. After Tennessee hung 41 points and racked up 500 yards of total offense on the Bulldogs, I’m still worried. The Vols averaged 7.1 yards per play, and if the same Georgia defense shows up on Saturday, the Bulldogs will get beat.
I also don’t want to overreact to Alabama’s last two wins over Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin. It’s obvious now that the Badgers are awful and Luke Fickell could be on his way out. The bottom line is Georgia faced one good team and won. The Crimson Tide faced one good team and got rolled.
I believe the market is higher on Alabama even after the Florida State loss. We saw Georgia open -7.5 at Tennessee and that number got bet down to 3.5. I think we see early money come in on the Crimson Tide, so I would grab the 3.5 if you like Alabama. If you are betting Georgia, wait for -3 or better.
Bet: Alabama +3.5
Washington Huskies (+10) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
The one early bet I gave out on Sunday night was Washington +10.5. Ohio State is playing its first road game this season, and this is a sneaky tough matchup against a good Huskies team.
The Buckeyes are obviously good enough to blow out any team in the country. However, I had this game circled before the season as one of the two times to bet against Ohio State. The other time was Texas, so hopefully this one ends better.
We have seen some money come in on Washington. As of early Sunday afternoon, there were still a couple of +10 marks out there, but a lot of books had already gone to 9.5. I’m not surprised the line went down, and I do think we will see buyback on Ohio State at some point. However, I would grab +10 if you can still get it. Anything under Washington +10 I would cut down to a half-unit play.
Bet: Washington +10
Iowa Hawkeyes (+6.5) vs. Indiana Hoosiers
Does anyone want to bet against Indiana after the Hoosiers just beat Illinois by 50? I might be that guy.
Hear me out before you start throwing things. Betting is similar to the stock market. You want to sell high and buy low. After the Hoosiers’ big win on Saturday, this is the highest Indiana will be in the betting market. There is also a little overreaction because of what we just saw.
Iowa is one of those places that, for whatever reason, is a sleepy place to play. The Hawkeyes have built their brand over the last two decades by beating good teams at home with a mix of great defense and special teams. They shorten the game, and somehow it’s 13-13 in the fourth quarter. That’s the Iowa blueprint. Can they execute it against Indiana? That is the question.
I will say this might not be a great Iowa defense, and that could be a factor here. Still, I expect the line to go up, and if it gets to +8 or higher, I would consider backing the Hawkeyes at home. If you like Indiana, I would take the Hoosiers laying under a touchdown while you still can.
Wait: Iowa +8 or better
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