Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion.
My official Week 4 plays will be out later in the week, and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday.
Here are my thoughts on the Week 4 matchups:
Miami Hurricanes (-8.5) vs. Florida Gators
We saw two college coaches get fired on Sunday when UCLA and Virginia Tech decided to make changes after both teams started 0-3. Is Florida’s Billy Napier next? Napier better win on Saturday after back-to-back losses to South Florida and LSU or he can call his real estate agent.
Many times when a coach is out the door we see a lackluster effort from a team like last week when Virginia Tech got blasted by Old Dominion, leading to the firing of Brent Pry. I think we might have a similar situation on Saturday with Florida. Miami is dominant in the trenches, and I can see a scenario where the Canes’ offensive and defensive lines dominate the game and they pull away in the second half.
Last week we saw money come in on Florida against LSU, dropping the line from 9.5 to 7.5. I don’t know if we will see a repeat this week given the situation and opponent. I haven’t bet this game yet, but I would be fine laying the 8.5 with Miami on the early number.
Bet: Miami -8.5
Utah Utes (-4) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
I actually like Utah in this spot, although the market is extremely high on Texas Tech. I expect this number to go down throughout the week.
Neither team has played anyone yet, so it’s tough to gauge them entering this huge Big 12 matchup. However, I bet Utah to win the Big 12 this summer and still have the Utes rated as the best team in the conference.
I think the early line is right on the money at Utah -4. I recommend playing the waiting game if you like Utah and hope the number gets to -3. If you like Texas Tech, I would take the Red Raiders getting over a field goal now.
Wait: Utah -3 or lower
Michigan Wolverines (-2.5) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
I like Michigan in this spot but make the number -3, so the spread is tight early. I could see some Nebraska money come in during the week, although I don’t mind grabbing the Wolverines -128 on the money line at under -130.
One thing I think is interesting heading into this matchup is we saw Bryce Underwood run more last week against Central Michigan, finishing with nine carries for 114 yards. Underwood averaged just two rushing attempts per game in high school and carried the ball five times in the first two weeks.
Underwood using his legs more makes Michigan’s offense tougher to defend and it should help the true freshman feel more comfortable in his second career road start. This should be a tight game but there is some value in grabbing Michigan early on the moneyline.
Bet: Michigan ML -128
TCU Horned Frogs (-6) vs. SMU Mustangs
The one early bet I made this week is TCU -6. This is a big revenge spot for the Horned Frogs after getting hammered by SMU last season, 66-42.
Beyond the revenge angle, I am really high on TCU this season. I mentioned I bet Utah to win the Big 12. However, I had them rated even with the Horned Frogs heading into the season. The only difference is TCU faces a much tougher conference schedule.
I also haven’t been impressed with SMU early in the season. The Mustangs allowed over 600 total yards to Baylor in Week 1 and they will have all kinds of issues stopping Josh Hoover and TCU’s passing attack. I think Hoover is the most underrated quarterback in the country.
We saw some early movement in this game pushing TCU from -5.5 to -6. I can see the number going even higher. I recommend taking the Horned Frogs laying anything under a touchdown.
Bet: TCU -6
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