We didn’t see a lot of movement in the power rankings after Week 2, with nine of the top 10 teams cruising to easy victories. Only Clemson had a scare before pulling away in the fourth quarter to beat Troy 27-16. The top three tiers remain basically unchanged, with the only movement being Oregon leapfrogging Clemson for the sixth spot.
Each week during the season, I’ll break down the rankings by tiers so bettors can see where I cut off each group. I’ll also move teams based on results, discuss changes in the betting market, and set the hypothetical point spread from Tier 1 compared to the rest of the tiers.
Stop by the SportsLine college football Discord channel or hit me up on X at @TheTomCasale to let me know if you agree or disagree with the rankings.
College football Week 3 power ratings
Tier 1
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Texas Longhorns
There is no change at the top, with the four teams winning in Week 2 by an average margin of 39 points.
Penn State’s first big test comes on Sept. 27 at home against No. 6 Oregon. My early line for that game is the Nittany Lions -6. Texas and Arch Manning get two more tune-ups before facing Florida and Oklahoma away from home.
Barring a big upset in the next two weeks, Penn State, Ohio State and Texas look locked in at the top. We’ll find out more about Georgia when the Bulldogs travel to Tennessee on Saturday. Georgia is a 4.5-point road favorite, and I see value backing them at anything under a touchdown.
Tier 2 (+3 from Tier 1)
5. LSU Tigers
LSU was lethargic in its 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech, but that’s to be expected with the game sandwiched between Clemson and Florida. The Tigers are laying 9.5 points at home to the Gators on Saturday after Florida stumbled against South Florida. That’s still a dangerous game for LSU. The Tigers can’t afford to slip up with matchups against South Carolina, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma still on deck.
Tier 3 (+5 from Tier 1)
6. Oregon Ducks
7. Clemson Tigers
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
There’s a slight change in Tier 3, as I moved Oregon ahead of Clemson. It didn’t have anything to do with the Ducks’ 69-3 demolition of an Oklahoma State team in shambles. It has more to do with Clemson. I didn’t penalize the Tigers much for losing at home to LSU, but the offense struggled again in the game against Troy. Maybe it was just a hangover, although I am starting to get a little concerned about Cade Klubnik and the Tigers’ passing attack.
Right now, I would make Oregon a slight favorite over Clemson and Alabama on a neutral field. A Clemson-Alabama matchup would be close to even going by my numbers.
Tier 4 (+7 from Tier 1)
9. Miami Hurricanes
10. Texas A&M Aggies
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
12. Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma was the big mover this week, jumping from Tier 5 to Tier 4 after its impressive win over Michigan. The Sooners get a breather this week at Temple but face the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the rankings. If OU finishes with two losses, it should be a playoff team given the strength of schedule.
We will obviously see a shakeup in this group next week with Notre Dame and Texas A&M facing each other on Saturday. I make the Irish a 6-point favorite at home and expect them to bounce back after losing to No. 9 Miami in Week 1.
Tier 5 (+9 from Tier 1)
13. Ole Miss Rebels
14. Auburn Tigers
15. South Carolina Gamecocks
16. Florida State Seminoles
17. Michigan Wolverines
18. Florida Gators
The teams in Tier 5 are roughly +9 points against the top four. Michigan falls into this group after its loss at Oklahoma. I’m not down on the Wolverines. My thinking coming into the season hasn’t really changed. I believe the Wolverines are still a year away from being serious title contenders.
Florida State is the most interesting team in this group. The Seminoles should take care of Kent State and Virginia before hosting Miami on Oct. 4. I like what I have seen from FSU so far, but the Seminoles are at 16 because for betting purposes, I would still make Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina slight favorites on a neutral field.
Florida falls after losing at home to South Florida as double-digit favorites. The Gators can move back up the board with an upset of No. 5 LSU on Saturday. Florida is loaded with talent, but I came into the season wondering if Billy Napier is the right coach for that team. After the loss to South Florida, I’m still wondering.
Tier 6 (+13 from Tier 1)
19. Illinois Fighting Illini
20. Utah Utes
Illinois and Utah are two teams I was high on entering the season. I bet the Illini to make the CFP, and they got by a big hurdle at Duke on Saturday. The Big Ten schedule sets up nicely for Illinois. They host Ohio State and miss Oregon, Penn State and Michigan. You can still get Illinois +630 to make the Playoff, and it is worth a bet at those odds.
While I like both teams, they are in the last tier for betting purposes. The bottom line is I wouldn’t make Utah or Illinois favored over any team in Tier 5 on a neutral field right now.
Next four: Tennessee Volunteers, USC Trojans, Iowa State Cyclones, Missouri Tigers
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