In college football, backing a top-10 team to roll against a weaker opponent is easy. But what about opting for the underdog in that matchup? It may not feel as great, but after all, sports betting is about numbers and not about teams.
With so many games on Week 3 of the college football slate, let’s highlight five of the boldest spread bets you can make for this upcoming weekend (with odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Kansas State -1.5 at Arizona (Friday, 9 p.m. ET)
Kansas State is lucky that it isn’t 0-3. After losing 24-21 to Iowa State in Ireland, the Wildcats barely escaped with a 38-35 win over FCS program North Dakota, in which they scored the go-ahead touchdown with 42 seconds left. This past weekend, Kansas State blew a 13-0 lead and lost 24-21 to Army.
The Ireland loser curse may be alive and well. Last year, No. 10 Florida State dropped its opener in Dublin and went on to finish 2-10. In 2022, Nebraska started off with a loss in Ireland and fired then-head coach Scott Frost in the middle of the season. Navy in 2023 also finished with a losing record after falling to Notre Dame in Ireland to start.
Not only is Kansas State favored this weekend, but the Wildcats are also laying points on the road. Arizona hasn’t played the strongest schedule so far, but those two wins have come by a combined score of 88-9 against Weber State and Hawaii.
UCLA -15.5 vs. New Mexico (Friday, 10 p.m. ET)
UCLA has gotten off to very slow starts in both of its games, as the Bruins trailed 23-7 to Utah at halftime in Week 1 and 23-3 at halftime to UNLV in Week 2. With an 0-2 start, Year 2 of the DeShaun Foster era looks bleak in Westwood, and Nico Iamaleava could already be feeling regret about leaving Tennessee to come to UCLA.
The Bruins aren’t going to be a fun team to put money on this season, and here you need them to win by at least 16 points in order to win your bet. Maybe start with a win first before worrying about winning by a bigger margin? New Mexico had a respectable 34-17 loss to Michigan to start its season, followed by a 32-22 win over Idaho State.
Northwestern +27.5 vs. Oregon (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET)
Oregon just shredded Oklahoma State 69-3, a week after looking dominant in a 59-13 win over Montana State. People aren’t exactly lining up to bet against the Ducks, let alone with a team that looked feeble in its only game against FBS competition.
Northwestern is coming off a 42-7 win over Western Illinois but dropped its season opener 23-3 to Tulane. In that game, the Wildcats only ran for 2.8 yards per carry, threw for 4.5 yards per pass and quarterback Preston Stone tossed four interceptions. This same Tulane defense allowed 6.5 yards per play and 31 points to South Alabama last weekend.
Iowa -33.5 vs. UMass (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
UMass is not a very good football team, as the Minutemen have lost 42-10 to Temple and 24-23 to FCS program Bryant to start the campaign. So I understand why the line is as high as it is against a Big Ten team like Iowa.
But when you are laying Iowa -33.5, you need Iowa to score at least 34 points just to have a chance of covering that spread. The same Iowa offense whose starting quarterback, Mark Gronowski, has mustered 127 passing yards total in two games this season—with one of them coming against FCS school Albany. Iowa did score 34 points in that contest but also allowed seven points, so this 33.5-point spread wouldn’t have cashed there either.
UAB -11.5 vs. Akron (Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
UAB is allowing the third-highest yards per play of any FBS defense at 7.88, only ahead of Eastern Michigan (8.04) and Georgia Southern (9.50). To make matters worse for UAB, this is despite facing an FCS team in Alabama State (where the Blazers won 52-42) and Navy.
So not only do you have to back one of the worst defenses in the country, but they also have to win by at least 12 points. You may ask, how bad is Akron that the Zips are getting 11.5 points against UAB? Well, they haven’t scored in 120 minutes this season after a 10-0 loss to Wyoming and a 68-0 loss to Nebraska.
Honestly, betting on either side in this game is a bold bet, but I think it’s bolder to go with the team that has to win by a rather decent-sized margin.
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