College football season is finally here. Sure, Week 0 gives us just a taste before we kick off a full slate of games on Aug. 30, but a little football is better than no football.
Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give a play I like, and recommend whether to bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already officially bet the game personally or what number I plan on betting it so there is no confusion.
Here are my thoughts on the Week 0 matchups.
Iowa State Cyclones (+3) vs. Kansas State Wildcats
The biggest game in Week 0 is also the toughest one to call. A Big 12 matchup between Kansas State and Iowa State kicks off the college football season. I make the Wildcats -2.5 in this matchup, so the line is tight at -3.
We have seen some slight line movement with Kansas State going from -3.5 to -3. I have a lean to the Cyclones if it moves above three again. Iowa State returns 12 starters from last season’s 11-3 team, and I think the Cyclones are a little undervalued entering the season.
Last year, we had significant value on Georgia Tech vs. Florida State in the opener. I don’t feel as strongly with this matchup, but advise waiting to see if you can get Iowa State at +3.5 or better. If you like the other side, I would hit Kansas State at -3. If this number dips to 2.5, I expect it to be bet back up to -3 pretty quickly.
Wait: Iowa State +3.5 or better
UNLV Rebels (-25.5) vs. Idaho State Bengals
UNLV is starting over with new head coach Dan Mullen. The Rebels must replace 20 starters from last season’s 11-win team, so Mullen hit the transfer portal hard and brought in a bunch of Power 4 players to restock the roster.
Normally I wouldn’t recommend backing a team early in the season when it’s going through such a major roster overhaul with a new coach. However, UNLV drew a perfect opponent in Week 0 with Idaho State. The Bengals ranked 122 out of 129 FCS teams in scoring defense last season, allowing 37.8 points per game.
Mullen hasn’t announced if Michigan transfer Alex Orji or Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea will start at quarterback against Idaho State. Whoever is under center should have little trouble putting up points on the overmatched Idaho State defense. We could be looking at a 50 burger in Week 0 for the Rebels.
We saw this number open at 21.5 and the market immediately jumped on UNLV, betting it up to 27.5 before it settled at 25.5. I think it ends up getting back to the 27.5 range as we get closer to kickoff. If you like the Rebels, bet it now.
Bet: UNLV -25.5
Kansas Jayhawks (-12.5) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Kansas is a team I’m higher on than some entering the season. The Jayhawks are coming off a disappointing 5-7 season where they lost five games by six points or less. They do return senior quarterback Jalon Daniels, and Lance Leipold is still one of the Big 12’s top coaches.
The market has gone against the Jayhawks early in this matchup. Kansas opened -14 and it’s down to -12.5 at most books. Fresno State is a team I’m looking to fade early in the season. Former North Dakota State head coach Matt Entz was a great hire, but he is starting over with a brand-new roster. The Bulldogs must replace 70% of their offensive production and eight starters on defense from last season.
I try to predict where the smart money will land before I bet a game. I don’t think the market is high on Kansas, and we have already seen the line move a 1.5 points to Fresno State. While I don’t hate 12.5, I’m going to be greedy and wait for -12. I think the number gets there at some point this week. If it does, I will officially back the Jayhawks. Kansas is my strongest lean in Week 0.
Wait: Kansas -12 or better
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-130) vs. Stanford Cardinal
The first college football bet I gave out for the 2025 season was Stanford Under 3.5 wins back in June. The program is in shambles right now after firing head coach Troy Taylor for off-the-field issues and naming Frank Reich as a short-term fix. The roster lacks talent, experience and depth. The entire thing feels like a disaster.
Hawaii is an interesting team this season in the Mountain West. Timmy Chang returns 14 starters, including quarterback Micah Alejado. Alejado closed last season by throwing for 469 yards and five touchdowns against New Mexico. He headlines the most talented roster Chang has had in his tenure on the island.
We have already seen a major shift in the line. Stanford opened as a slight favorite, but it has been bet to Hawaii -2.5. I still see value on the money line at -130. I graded this a “tossup game” when projecting Stanford’s win total, although I give the Rainbow Warriors the edge at home.
I doubt we see an influx of Stanford money coming in throughout the week, so I’m good with laying the -130 on the Hawaii money line. This game is Hawaii or pass for me with all the questions surrounding the Stanford program right now.
Bet: Hawaii ML -130
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