A new college football season kicks off this weekend, and there are a few intriguing Week 0 matchups to get us started. Bruce Marshall, the longtime executive editor of The Gold Sheet, has shared what you need to know ahead of betting the biggest Week 0 games that are taking place on Saturday, Aug. 23.
No. 22 Iowa State vs. No. 17 Kansas State (12 p.m. ET in Dublin, Ireland on ESPN)
Though Notre Dame’s 42-3 destruction of outmanned Navy two years ago was an exception, two of the other last three overseas openers in Dublin have been real conference games, with underdog sides winning those by 3-point margins. Three years ago, it was Northwestern upending Nebraska 31-28 in what in retrospect was an ominous matchup, as it turned out to be Pat Fitzgerald’s last win as Wildcats coach. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers’ loss set in motion a series of results that would result in head coach Scott Frost being dismissed by midseason. Last year, favored Florida State, in a precursor to what would become a disastrous 2-10 collapse by the Seminoles, fell 24-21 to a feisty Georgia Tech on a 44-yard field goal at the final gun.
The question many are asking this week as the annual “Farmageddon” Big 12 matchup moves to Ireland is why K-State has opened as a favorite over ISU despite various metrics suggesting otherwise — like wins and spread covers for the Cyclones in their last two games and four of the last five meetings.
Big plays for ISU highlighted last November’s 29-21 Cyclone win at Ames, as Matt Campbell’s side forced a pair of turnovers, blocked a field goal, and recorded a safety and a pair of stops on fourth-and-2 situations to win the battle of turning-point plays. It was also another solid effort by now-junior ISU RB Abu Sama III, who motored for a game-high 81 rushing yards. Spread-wise, note also that Chris Klieman’s Wildcats were only 1-6 ATS away from Manhattan in 2024, while Campbell’s ISU has covered five of its last six as an underdog.
Fresno State at Kansas (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
There’s lots of “new” in this matchup, including a new-look David Booth Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, which was undergoing a revamp last fall, which forced the team to play games in Kansas City. More than a few Big 12 observers believe this temporary displacement might have had a bit to do with KU finishing up a rather disappointing 5-7 after head coach Lance Leipold had steered the previous two Jayhawks editions to bowl games.
Meanwhile, the “new” on the Fresno side includes head coach Matt Entz, who spent last season as LB coach for Lincoln Riley at USC after a decorated run as head coach at North Dakota State, which included a pair of FCS titles in 2019 and 2021. Also “new” for the Bulldogs is quarterback E.J. Warner, who has bounced between Temple and Rice before landing in the Central Valley and recently being announced as the winner of the starting QB competition in Fresno. Son of NFL Hall-of-Famer Kurt Warner, E.J. has passed for 8814 yards and 58 TDs in three seasons as a starter for two teams nicknamed the Owls.
There have been some mixed point spread signals recently from the Jayhawks, who have won and covered their last four openers for Leipold (including last season vs. FCS Lindenwood) but failed to cover their other three spread chances vs. FBS-level, non-conference foes last season. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS against non-Mountain West opposition the past two seasons, including a year ago under interim head coach Tim Skipper, who was auditioning for the job after predecessor Jeff Tedford had to step down prior to last season due to health concerns.
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky (7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network)
A pair of Conference USA bowl reps from last season, though there’s a new guy in charge on the SHSU sideline. Phil Longo, recently an offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Ole Miss, who also served in that same capacity for the Bearkats for three seasons beginning in 2014, makes his FBS head coaching debut. He follows long-serving K.C. Keeler, who oversaw SHSU’s move up to the FBS ranks for two years but has returned nearer his roots in the Delaware Valley as the new coach at Temple. On the other side, Tyson Helton returns for a seventh season at WKU after impressively leading the Hilltoppers to bowl games in each of his first six seasons on the job.
The Tops have won this matchup the past two seasons, having a much easier time of it a year ago on the road at Huntsville by a 31-14 count. WKU, a short-priced 2.5-point favorite, pulled clear with a pair of TDs barely two minutes apart early in the fourth quarter, including a 74-yard TD pass from Caden Veltkamp (now at FAU) to KD Hutchinson. After a Bearkats fumble on the next possession, the Tops put the game away in a short, three-play drive capped by Veltkamp’s 19-yard TD run.
Saturday also marks the WKU debut of Abilene Christian transfer QB Maverick McIvor, who passed for 30 TDs a year ago at the FCS level. Tops fans are hoping for a reprise of another recent FCS transfer, Bailey Zappe, who starred for Helton’s 2021 WKU after transferring from Houston Baptist. Meanwhile, Longo is working with a revamped roster for the Bearkats as he looks to implement a version of his preferred Air Raid, which proved an awkward fit in his recent stint at Wisconsin. Note that meetings the past two seasons both landed under, and SHSU enters 2025 on an 11-4 Under run. The Bearkats were also 5-2 in their last seven as dogs for Keeler. As for WKU, it cooled vs. the spread down the stretch last season, dropping six of its last seven ATS, while also landing under 7-3 in its last ten games.
Stanford at Hawaii (7:30 p.m. ET on CBS/Paramount+)
Hardly an uneventful offseason on the Farm, as head coach Troy Taylor became involved in some offseason controversy and was forced out in late March after a pair of disappointing campaigns in Palo Alto. With former star QB Andrew Luck lured back to his alma mater in a newly created GM role last November, he would tab his former NFL coach at Indianapolis, Frank Reich, to replace Taylor on an interim basis for 2025, though this autumn effectively serves as an audition for Reich, who has every intention of making it a full-time assignment.
As for Reich, he has already made one important move, naming Oregon State transfer Ben Gulbranson as the starting QB ahead of holdover Elijah Brown after Ashton Daniels, who took the majority of snaps last season, transferred to Auburn. This visit to Honolulu recalls a similar opener two years ago for the Cardinal in what was Taylor’s first game in charge, a handy 37-24 Stanford win in which the since-departed Daniels starred with 248 pass yards and a pair of TD tosses.
The situation at Hawaii also bears watching, as Mountain West sources believe decorated alum Timmy Chang is likely on the clock after three subpar campaigns as coach that have netted just 13 wins and no bowl appearances — especially galling for locals as the Rainbow Warriors effectively have a bid to the local Hawaii Bowl as long as they become postseason eligible, which they haven’t been since the preceding Todd Graham regime. Yet Chang has experienced some point spread success, especially at the on-campus Ching Complex, where UH has covered eight straight games as host. The Rainbow Warriors also enter 2025 on a 23-12 Under run.
As for Stanford, note that it closed the Taylor era on a 4-9-1 spread skid while covering only two of its last seven as a visitor.
Read the full article here