Data points are essential when picking sides in a college football game and the more numbers you can gather, the better. Heading into Week 3, our notebooks are starting to fill with trends for specific teams that may assist in beating the books.
Lines will tighten as the season wears on with title contenders separating from the rest of the pack. Saturday’s predictions docket includes sides and picks for Georgia vs. Tennessee, Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame and Florida vs. LSU, three games with postseason implications for all involved parties.
There are a few off-the-radar games nationally that are worth keeping a close eye on, including Colorado’s Big 12 opener with Houston.
Last week’s results: Brad Crawford (8-2 straight, 7-3 ATS); Chris Hummer (7-3, 4-6 ATS). I’d like to have Oklahoma State +28.5 back after Oregon’s annihilation, but other than that, can’t argue with the results during a money-making second weekend. Also, here’s another reminder: If you tailed our weekly Friday predictions show, you cashed another 3-teamer (+798) from yours truly.
Season totals: Crawford (15-5 straight, 14-6 ATS); Hummer (15-5; 10-10).
For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Sept. 8.
Colorado at Houston
Hummer (Colorado +4.5): Houston’s defense is playing at an elite level early this year, which will be interesting against a Colorado offense that will be fronted by new starter Ryan Staub. I don’t like picking against Houston at home in this situation. That defense is something that can be depended on. But I do think the Buffaloes are a value with that 4.5-point line in a game of teams that are very even talent wise. … Houston 27, Colorado 24.
Crawford (Houston -4.5): Staub shined in last week’s win over Delaware and provided Colorado’s staff with a data point to take into consideration. It’s clear Julian Lewis is limited as a freshman based on the play-calling and Kaidon Salter’s job could slip away if Staub has another top-end performance. All this to say I like Willie Fritz and the Cougars at home to cover and improve to 3-0 on the season. … Houston 24, Colorado 17.
Hummer (Pitt -5.5): You need to be careful with rivalry games, and West Virginia is at home. But the Panthers have just been the better team this year. It doesn’t help the Mountaineers they’re going to be without star running back Jaheim White, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. The Panthers going on the road gives me a bit of hesitancy. But the Mountaineers have struggled to generate any consistent run game — they averaged 2.6 yards per carry last week in a loss to Ohio — and I think Pitt is a legit top 25 team. … Pitt 31, West Virginia 24.
Crawford (Pitt -5.5): That’s consecutive four-touchdown outings from Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein, who takes his show to Morgantown this week. The home team has won the last four matchups in this rivalry series, but after West Virginia’s stunning loss to Ohio, I’m not sure how anyone could back the Mountaineers in this spot. This is not a premium play this week, but one you should feel pretty good about anything under 7 points unless Holstein makes mistakes on the road. … Pitt 30, West Virginia 23.
Hummer (Georgia Tech +4.5): Am I willing to go down with the ship for my national championship pick? That’s how I’m feeling about Clemson coming of a very lackluster effort against Troy. This is a sucker line to me. I could argue Georgia Tech should be favored at home based on what we’ve seen from these two teams thus far. Maybe a leaky Georgia Tech secondary is the medicine Cade Klubnik needs. But Georgia Tech is going to move the ball. It’s going to be up to Clemson to keep up. I’ll begrudgingly take the take Tigers. But I’m hedging with that Georgia Tech line. That’s good value at home. … Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 28.
Crawford (Clemson -4.5): Here’s a rare opportunity to side with the Tigers in a value spot against Georgia Tech. Clemson has won nine straight in the series and given what has transpired the first two games of the season for the overwhelming preseason ACC favorite, this is make or break time for Dabo Swinney’s team. One of my favorite plays of the week, I’m going with the Clemson cover in the league opener with Cade Klubnik briefly quieting his critics with a late touchdown pass in the fourth quarter to win it. … Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 20.
Hummer (Wisconsin +20.5): Maybe Alabama is fixed after a 73-0 win over ULM. But I can’t erase what I saw Week 1 against Florida State. Wisconsin is going to try and shorten this game. The Badgers are a run-first team with a 56% run split, and they have the 10th-highest time of possession in the country. It’s going to be on what’s been a shaky Alabama run defense that is without its best DT to slow Wisconsin’s run game down. I’m not willing to pick the Badgers outright. But they keep it close enough against an Alabama team with a lot to prove. … Alabama 27, Wisconsin 14.
Crawford (Alabama -20.5): I’m not back on the Crimson Tide bandwagon yet after the beatdown of ULM, but that is undoubtedly a positive sign for Alabama given what happened in Week 1. That shows me that Kaleb DeBoer has not lost his team and their response to a loss was admirable. Wisconsin’s defense is surprisingly impressive up to this point, but this is going to be a real test for the Badgers. … Alabama 34, Wisconsin 10.
No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee
Hummer (Georgia -4.5): This is a big test for Gunner Stockton on the road. Georgia’s shown very little offensively to this point. To me, this comes down to if Georgia’s offensive line holds up. If Tennessee is shutting down UGA’s run game and creating pressure, the Bulldogs are in trouble. But I think UGA’s front is going to be good enough. Plus, the Bulldogs are a much different test for Joey Aguilar than what he’s seen so far. It’s tight throughout, but Georgia has enough weapons to get things done on the road. … Georgia 27, Tennessee 21.
Crawford (Tennessee +4.5): Gunner Stockton and the Georgia passing game will have to show me it can produce plays downfield before taking the Bulldogs here. I know the series is dominated by Georgia under Kirby Smart and his defense always seems to have an answer for what Josh Heupel brings to the table, but I’m going with the Vols here. It’s a road start for Stockton, the first of his career, and Neyland Stadium will be rocking in preparation for Tennessee’s leap into the top 10. … Tennessee 24, Georgia 23.
Hummer (Miami -16.5): This is a different test for USF this week. The Bulls quietly have given up a lot of yards this season with their blitz-happy defense. That’s a tough combination against what is one of the best O-lines in college football. I also think it’s going to be hard for USF to get up a third straight week after two massive wins. The Bulls keep this competitive for a while, but the Hurricanes and a very explosive offense manage to pull away in the second half. … Miami 38, USF 21.
Crawford (USF +16.5): At what point are oddsmakers going to start respecting Alex Golesh and the Bulls? I’ll gladly take USF and 16.5 points in this spot on the road against another in-state foe. If the Bulls can pull this one off, go ahead and get your Sharpie and mark this squad as playoff-bound. They’re already in the driver’s seat heading into American play later this month and are playing with extreme confidence through the first two weeks of the campaign. … Miami 38, USF 24.
Hummer (Vanderbilt +6.5): This is my upset pick of the week. It’s going to take Vanderbilt staying home against LaNorris Sellers and to prevent “Beamer Ball” from picking up a score on special teams as we’ve seen a few times already this year. But South Carolina’s early offensive efforts haven’t inspired confidence. The Gamecocks are just 92nd in yards per play, and Vanderbilt is a team that’s extremely efficient offensively and tends to shorten games with ball control. Maybe South Carolina’s front dominates the game — the Vanderbilt O-line has been inconsistent in pass protection — and Vandy struggles. But I think the Commodores pull the upset. … Vanderbilt 24, South Carolina 21.
Crawford (Vanderbilt +6.5): South Carolina has won 16 straight games against Vanderbilt. At what point does the streak end? It may continue Saturday night for the Gamecocks, but the Commodores have to like their chances after last week’s 34-point barrage in the second half at Virginia Tech. South Carolina hasn’t looked like a top 10 team in either of its first two outings and the Gamecocks have struggled to generate a run game. Diego Pavia said plenty about this one over the summer and gets his second opportunity to beat South Carolina after last season’s blowout. … South Carolina 20, Vanderbilt 16.
Hummer (Ole Miss -8.5): Take the over. This is a game that’s going to feature a ton of points, especially when you consider Ole Miss’ defensive line seems to have taken a considerable step back from a pass rush perspective compared to a season ago. I really don’t anticipate Arkansas stopping Ole Miss much either even though Razorbacks secondary has played very well this season. This is a prove-it game to me for that Arkansas defense, especially on the road. I think Ole Miss gets the cover. … Ole Miss 45, Arkansas 35.
Crawford (Arkansas +8.5): Ole Miss hasn’t stopped the run this season and Arkansas likes to bring the boom offensively at the line of scrimmage. Austin Simmons hasn’t been all that sharp early, but the Rebels are 2-0 and some of those mistakes might be overlooked by casuals coming into this one. All that to say I’ll happily take the Razorbacks and the points. This might be the viewers’ introduction to Taylen Green as well, a dual-threat playmaker trying to help Sam Pittman right the ship at Arkansas. … Ole Miss 35, Arkansas 31.
No. 16 Texas A&M at No. 8 Notre Dame
Hummer (Texas A&M +6.5): This is a tough spot for Texas A&M. Not only do the Aggies have to go on the road, but Notre Dame is coming off a bye following its Week 1 loss to Miami. This game will come down to a few areas: 1. Can Notre Dame block better? The Irish got destroyed up front by Miami, and the Aggies have an excellent pass rush led by Cashius Howell. 2. Can Marcel Reed perform up to his standards? This is a QB that entered the season hoping to complete 70% of his passes. If he can do close to that against the Irish’s excellent secondary, the Aggies are going to be in great shape. I’ve felt Texas A&M has been undervalued all offseason. Give me the upset on the road. … Texas A&M 28, Notre Dame 27.
Crawford (Notre Dame -6.5): This is the spot where you take the Fighting Irish to cover in a game Notre Dame has to have. This team’s had an extra week to lick its wounds from the opening loss at Miami and prepare for what Texas A&M brings to the table — a one-man show with Marcel Reed at quarterback. Stop him and Notre Dame should win, perhaps handily. That’s easier said than done, however, especially with how this team looked in the trenches a couple weekends ago. … Notre Dame 31, Texas A&M 17.
Florida at No. 3 LSU
Hummer (Florida +9.5): There are going to be a lot of bettors and fans abandoning ship with Florida this week. That’s understandable after a bad loss to USF. But there is a ton of value with the Gators. They’re still a talented team that matches up well with LSU In the trenches. DJ Lagway needs to play better, and the Florida coaching staff needs to scheme open some easier plays for its receivers. But I’d be really surprised if this is a blowout. LSU wins the game. The heat turns up on Napier. But Florida keeps it respectable. … LSU 31, Florida 27.
Crawford (Florida +9.5): It wasn’t Brian Kelly’s fault his players failed to impress against Louisiana Tech a week after winning at Clemson. It’s hard to get college-aged athletes up for a game like that after a seismic opener. No motivation necessary this week, however. Florida is a bitter rival limping in after the loss to USF and is undervalued a bit given the circumstances. If the Gators are crushed in this spot, the end could be near for Billy Napier. I think it’ll be close, though. … LSU 29, Florida 24.
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