Anyone else ready for chaos in Week 5? We’re going to see mass changes reflected in Sunday’s new rankings once this epic slate of games inside the top 25 are over — and we’ve got final picks and predictions for all of them.
Alabama-Georgia highlights the schedule in a primetime SEC showdown, while Oregon-Penn State, LSU-Ole Miss, Ohio State-Washington represent a trio of matchups involving at least one elite team with College Football Playoff aspirations.
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And beware of upsets this weekend. Florida State’s Friday night trip to Charlottesville to take on Virginia is one to watch in the ACC ahead of the Seminoles’ Oct. 4 battle against fellow unbeaten Miami.
Last week’s results: Brad Crawford (9-1 straight, 5-5 ATS); Chris Hummer (9-1, 4-6 ATS). I’m still angry over Oklahoma’s last-minute safety at Auburn to cover. The Tigers play on the road was the right pick, but it didn’t land. Taking Texas Tech on the moneyline was a good call for both of us, along with the Miami cover against Florida.
Season totals: Crawford (29-11 straight, 24-16 ATS); Hummer (32-8; 18-22).
For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Sept. 22. New users at FanDuel Sportsbook get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager. Click here:
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia
Hummer (Virginia +6.5): I really wish I could get this line at seven, which it’s already creeped to in several books. But I like the Cavs ATS in this matchup. Virginia’s O-line is a bit of a weakness after a series of injuries, but Chandler Morris and UVA’s offense are going to put up points regardless. The question I have is whether Virginia’s run defense can hold up. That unit’s been good so far (43rd nationally in yards allowed per carry), and I think it’s good enough to help push a cover over the line. … Florida State 27, Virginia 21.
Crawford (Florida State -6.5): This one’s dangerous for the unbeaten Seminoles. Virginia is one of the most improved football teams in the ACC with Chandler Morris at quarterback and the Cavaliers get the rare Friday night opportunity at home to take down a playoff threat. They’ve always got a pair of ballcarriers averaging better than 6 yards per carry. Potentially Florida State’s most competitive game up to this point, I like the Seminoles if you can get anything at 7 or under. … Florida State 31, Virginia 23.
Hummer (TCU+2.5): I’ve been high on TCU all season. That’s not changing in Tempe, where I think the Horned Frogs make a statement about being one of the best teams in the Big 12. The matchup to watch in this game is Jordyn Tyson against the TCU secondary (probably Channing Canada most often). The Sun Devils are remarkably reliant on Tyson in the pass game (his 47 targets are 34 more than any other receiver on the team), and TCU is going to shade coverage his way. That’s been a good Horned Frog secondary so far. Josh Hoover throws for a lot of yards against a vulnerable Sun Devils secondary, and TCU gets the win. … TCU 31, Arizona State 28.
Crawford (TCU +2.5): Still not sure what to make of the Sun Devils at this point. They won their Big 12 opener over Baylor on the game’s final play, but haven’t looked quite as explosive as a team compared to last year’s conference title team. Raleek Brown is moving (372 yards rushing), but he’s going have to break tackles against a rush defense in the top half of the Big 12. Josh Hoover has 1,000 yards passing and 11 touchdowns in the three games and he’ll add to his total here with a big road win. … TCU 30, Arizona State 27.
Hummer (Arkansas +5.5): Take the over. These teams have allowed points in bunches early this season, and I expect that to continue. It’ll be interesting to see how Arkansas responds after back-to-back devastating losses. Sam Pittman very much enters the week on the hot seat, and a win is desperately needed to cool things down. This game comes down to two things: 1. Can Arkansas stop the run? The Razorbacks rank 113th nationally in defensive rushing success rate, which is an issue against Jeremiah Love. 2. Can Notre Dame’s walking-wounded secondary slow down Taylen Green? He’s been electric so far this year averaging 9.5 yards per attempt. The value in this one is Arkansas ATS. … Notre Dame 38, Arkansas 34.
Crawford (Notre Dame -5.5): Are the Razorbacks a sinking ship under Sam Pittman or can this offense with Taylen Green generate enough explosives to make Marcus Freeman and the Irish pull their hair out defensively? Let’s be honest. Notre Dame’s not an elite team and the fact the Irish are still ranked is more brand than brawn. They’ve given up a ton of points through three games, but they’re also facing must-win status and it’s only Week 5. We’ll find out more about both teams when this one’s over. … Notre Dame 34, Arkansas 27.
Hummer (Texas A&M -6.5): This could be a tough matchup for Auburn with Texas A&M coming off a bye. The Tigers have struggled in the secondary this season, and the Aggies have lived on big plays in the passing game. I also really wonder about Jackson Arnold’s ability to attack people through the air. Auburn needs this to be a low-scoring game to survive, and I think the Aggies are explosive enough to make this a higher scoring game. Were this line at seven-plus, I’d take the Tigers. But I think the Aggies are the play. … Texas A&M 34, Auburn 27.
Crawford (Auburn +6.5): Jackson Arnold would love a re-do. Royally hosed on two whiffs from the officiating crew in last week’s loss at Oklahoma, the Tigers still had a shot to beat the Sooners had their quarterback made a couple more successful throws in Cam Coleman’s direction. Texas A&M’s had an extra week to prepare and should show up defensively after getting gashed several times during the win at Notre Dame. This feels like a game that will be within the number for Auburn, perhaps even a rare road victory at Kyle Field. … Texas A&M 29, Auburn 24.
Hummer (LSU +1.5): Let’s start with this: Almost any advanced statistical metric you look at suggests Ole Miss should win this game. The Tigers, despite their ranking, have struggled to generate any sort of consistent run game, which makes them predictable on offense. But I’m a stubborn person, and LSU was my preseason SEC championship pick. I don’t love the Tigers in Oxford. I wouldn’t bet it. But I am going to pick it. LSU is the best defense the Rebels have seen all year, and Garrett Nussmeier does just enough to give LSU a big road win. … LSU 30, Ole Miss 27.
Crawford (Ole Miss -1.5): Maybe this is who LSU is this season, a defense-first football team that will need to get by offensively to finish in the SEC’s elite tier and reach the playoff. The bad news if that’s the case is Ole Miss is going to press the issue offensively and, independent of who starts Saturday’s game at quarterback, this is the Tigers’ toughest test thus far from a matchup standpoint. I’m not sure how much stock we should take in the victories over Clemson and Florida since those two teams are horrid. … Ole Miss 27, LSU 24.
Hummer (USC -6.5): Illinois isn’t nearly as bad as they looked last week against Indiana. But I still don’t love this matchup for the Ilini given how banged up they are in the secondary. Multiple Illinois defensive backs exited the game against Indiana with injuries, and at one point the program was without six or seven of its top DBs. Now, the team’s best defensive back Xavier Scott is out for the season. None of that is good news against a USC passing attack that ranks third nationally in passer rating. That’s just too much to overcome, especially given how inconsistent the Illini have been on offense. … USC 38, Illinois 30.
Crawford (Illinois +6.5): Operation Fade USC for the second consecutive week in this spot. I know Michigan State was luckily cover the 17.5 points in Los Angeles, but it happened. And Illinois is not as bad as the 50-point beatdown the Illini took at Indiana. Bret Bielema will have this squad ready to play and more importantly, offer some semblance of resistance unlike what his team showed last time out. Luke Altmyer’s big day helps Illinois jump back in the Big Ten conversation after handing the Trojans their first loss of the season. … Illinois 31, USC 27.
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa
Hummer (Indiana -6.5): Let’s go good news, bad news for Iowa. Good news: The Hawkeyes have averaged 42.5 points per game the last two weeks. Bad news: Indiana is coming to town and the Hawkeyes’ secondary is just good (45th in defensive success rate) instead of elite. That’s a problem because Indiana’s offense is a buzzsaw. I think the Hawkeyes are going to try to muck this game up on every snap and slow things down. But Indiana is just a machine right now. I can’t see Iowa keeping up. … Indiana 31, Iowa 20.
Crawford (Indiana -6.5): Heavy money is going to come in on the Hoosiers here, I can just feel it. After last week’s 63-point eruption against Illinois, Curt Cignetti’s team isn’t sneaking up on anyone the rest of the way. That was the time to go heavy on Indiana, not here, on the road against the Hawkeyes. No blowouts are happening at Kinnick Stadium, but I’m not sure Iowa has the firepower to get the upset. … Indiana 31, Iowa 24.
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Hummer (Washington +8.5): Even with Texas on the schedule, this trip to Seattle might be Ohio State’s toughest game of the season thus far. Demond Williams Jr. is among my favorite QBs to watch in the country. He’s an explosive runner and an incredibly efficient passer (73.5% on completions). The Huskies offense is well schemed and running back Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston are among the best at their position in the country. If there’s a hesitation point for the Huskies going into this week it’s that they’ve just been OK defensively. But they do have the talent at corner to at least hang with Ohio State’s receivers. The Buckeyes win this game. But it’s close. … Ohio State 27, Washington 24.
Crawford (Ohio State -8.5): Follow the streaks in this one. Ryan Day is 48-0 against Big Ten teams not named Michigan or Oregon and has an unblemished mark at Ohio State coming off a bye week. That’s bad news for Washington. The Huskies defend their home turf well and the Demond Williams Jr. and Jonah Coleman pairing will move the football, but not enough to overcome some of the explosiveness the Buckeyes will produce when they have possession. … Ohio State 38, Washington 24.
Hummer (Alabama +3): If you can ignore Alabama’s Week 1 effort, there’s a strong argument the Tide should be favored in this game. Georgia’s defensive front isn’t what it’s been in recent years — 79th in pressure rate — and the secondary was carved up against Tennessee. That’s advantage Alabama given what the passing offense has looked like the last three weeks. But that Week 1 game against FSU did happen, and I still have a huge hesitancy about what Bama’s O-line and pass game look like against similar competition. I think this is a true tossup game. But given that UGA is at home and has a passing offense I trust a tad more, I’ll go with the Bulldogs to win. … Georgia 28, Alabama 27.
Crawford (Georgia -3): Are we going to see the Alabama that steamrolled its last two opponents or the Crimson Tide team that paled in comparison from a physicality standpoint at Florida State? The likely answer is somewhere in between the two. Georgia’s lucky to be unbeaten right now given how much its defense was torched at Tennessee. Ty Simpson’s been terrific at quarterback for the Crimson Tide and he’s going to make plays. The question is, how many? In one of the best games of the weekend, Georgia holds on at home. … Georgia 31, Alabama 27.
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State
Hummer (Penn State -3.5): Penn State by 3.5 is an interesting line given how Oregon’s looked early this season. But I like the Nittany Lions in this one. Oregon’s been good so far up front on both sides of the ball. But there are signs of some cracks (98th in pressure rate on defense; 47th in PFF’s run block grade) that could be exposed against the elite teams of the sport. Penn State is that up front on both sides of the ball. Do I worry a bit about Drew Allar’s less-than-stellar start? Sure. But matchups like this are won up front, and I think the Nittany Lions have a slight advantage in that area. Plus, they’re playing at home. Happy Valley is going to be rocking. … Penn State 28, Oregon 24.
Crawford (Oregon +3.5): Neither of these squads have played comparable competition yet, so Saturday night inside Beaver Stadium will be telling. However, based on what we’ve seen, there’s one team with a clear edge at quarterback if it comes down to making a throw or two in the fourth quarter to prevail. I trust Dan Lanning in this spot by the slightest of margins over James Franklin, so I’m going to be courageous and take the Ducks on the money line with the offense generating a long touchdown late to beat the Nittany Lions. … Oregon 27, Penn State 23.
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