Last week I wrote that the Big 12 felt like a one-bid league, and while the conference didn’t do a whole lot to change that perception this weekend, the ACC may have come to its rescue. Because while I’m not sure the Big 12 can get more than one in (especially with its defending champion losing to the worst team in the SEC last year), I’m damn near certain the ACC has no hope of getting more than two.
Ironically, the ACC team that will get the most attention for its performance this week will be one that didn’t lose. We just thought it might be for a while against a team it shouldn’t. But, no, No. 8 Clemson was able to avoid an 0-2 start to the season by overcoming an early 16-0 deficit to Troy to win 27-16. And Clemson looking thoroughly mediocre was one of the ACC’s high points this week.
The ACC played five nonconference games against Power Four opponents in Week 2, and it lost all five of them. Duke lost at home by 26 to No. 12 Illinois. No. 17 SMU blew a 14-point lead with 8:30 left to play in the game to lose in overtime to Baylor 48-45.
Boston College fell in overtime as well, losing at Michigan State 42-40. Virginia Tech was outscored 34-0 by Vanderbilt in the second half to lose at home 44-20. Then, Stanford finished Saturday with a 27-3 loss to BYU.
By the time the dust settled, the ACC found itself with a 3-9 record against Power Four opponents to start the season. Yes, one of those wins is against Alabama, but it came from one of only two ACC teams that currently feel capable of reaching the College Football Playoff in No. 14 Florida State.
College football grades: Ohio State earns ‘A’ mark, LSU gets ‘D’ for lackluster effort in Week 2 report card
David Cobb
The Seminoles took the weekend off, beating East Texas A&M 77-3. No. 5 Miami had a similar approach and followed up its Notre Dame win by beating Bethune-Cookman 45-3.
Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the nonconference games against non-Power Four competition. Friday night saw Louisville struggle to put away James Madison before winning 28-14, and on Saturday, Syracuse had to stage a comeback to force overtime against UConn before escaping with a 27-20 win that still had Syracuse coach Fran Brown forcing his team to run sprints on the field afterward.
But, the good news is Bill Belichick got his first win! Yep, the Tar Heels put up 20 points on Charlotte in a win that will surely move the needle in the ACC’s favor.
Seriously, we’re only two weeks into the season, but Florida State and Miami feel like the only legit contenders for spots. Yes, there’s always the possibility Clemson gets its act together and finishes strong. It wouldn’t be the first time it has happened. The problem is, if Clemson does figure it out, it will likely come at the expense of Florida State, whom the Tigers play at home in November. It’s also possible the Tigers finish 10-2 with losses to LSU and Florida State, but wins over South Carolina and SMU prove impressive enough to the committee. But, as we’ll get into later, I don’t know that a 10-2 record will be a guarantee for at-large teams this year just because it felt like one last year.
Also, Clemson has looked mediocre through two games, and three of its next four are on the road. This all may be a moot point sooner rather than later.
|
ACC |
1-3 |
0-2 |
1-4 |
3-9 |
|
|
Big 12 |
3-1 |
2-2 |
0-3 |
5-6 |
|
|
Big Ten |
2-0 |
2-2 |
1-1 |
5-3 |
|
|
SEC |
4-1 |
3-0 |
1-1 |
8-2 |
Not so fast, Big 12
I was not a popular person in Big 12 country last week for what I wrote, and for a little while on Saturday morning, it looked like I would be eating plenty of crow this week. No. 16 Iowa State didn’t play well, but it played well enough in crunch time and beat Iowa 16-13. Baylor overcame a 14-point deficit to beat No. 17 SMU 48-45.
The Big 12 was back! Until it wasn’t. After starting the day 2-0 against Power Four competition, the league had a horrible afternoon. Kansas blew a 21-6 lead over Missouri to lose 42-31. Oklahoma State had unspeakable atrocities committed against it in a 69-3 (yep) loss to No. 6 Oregon. Then the league’s defending champion, No. 12 Arizona State, fell to Mississippi State 24-20 when it blitzed late and paid the price.
Making matters worse, West Virginia went on the road and lost to Ohio. Not Ohio State. Ohio, from the MAC. A fine MAC program to be sure (some have called it a wagon), but a MAC program all the same. Then, to really twist the knife, Kansas State lost 24-21 at home to Army.
BYU’s win over Stanford to finish the night doesn’t provide much relief. Now, there are a lot of ways to look at this. You can point to the Big 12’s 5-3 record against the ACC and Big Ten, but the wins have come against UCLA, North Carolina, Iowa, SMU and Stanford. Of those five teams, how many are you confident will make a bowl based on what you’ve seen thus far?
Where the concern lies is that, based on what we’re seeing to this point, it’s going to be the SEC you’re battling for at-large spots, and you’re currently 0-3 against them.
It still feels like the Big 12 will have to thread a needle of having a 10-2 team beat an 11-1 or 12-0 team in the Big 12 Championship Game to get two in. It’s possible! However, it’s not likely.
The SEC has a strong middle class
The top of the league might have some cracks. We’ve already seen No. 21 Alabama lose, and No. 4 Georgia didn’t look too impressive in a 28-6 win over Austin Peay. No. 7 Texas got on the board with a 38-7 win over San Jose State but looked shaky early there as well.
The middle class of the league, though, the teams that could be playoff contenders but aren’t assumed contenders, have looked very strong through two weeks. It’s not simply that the SEC has picked up eight P4 wins already, it’s that it’s teams like Auburn, Oklahoma, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State picking up five of them.
Missouri has gone 21-5 the last two seasons but entered the weekend as one of only six SEC teams not in the AP Top 25. And I agreed with the assessment! I had serious questions about the Tigers considering all they lost on offense from last year, but I have reconsidered my previous position. After watching Beau Pribula tear Kansas apart with his passing on Saturday, and the potent rushing attack that goes with it, this is a Mizzou team with the talent, coaching and schedule to make a serious run at a trip to Atlanta and a possible playoff bid.
Then there’s No. 18 Oklahoma, which went 7-5 last year but looks much stronger so far and knocked off No. 15 Michigan 24-13 in the weekend’s marquee matchup. While I have concerns about the sustainability of running John Mateer 20 times per game in SEC play, there’s no question this Sooners team looks more dangerous than last year’s team.
We could see the league cannibalize itself in conference play to the point where it hurts playoff hopes too badly, but my eyes tell me we’re getting at least four SEC teams in the field this year. We may get five if the schedule plays out correctly for the league.
South Florida is your Group of Six frontrunner
OK, so not every member of the SEC’s middle class has looked great. Thanks to Florida, the SEC currently has as many losses to the American as it does the ACC and Big 12 combined.
The South Florida Bulls are ready to be America’s darling! After a shocking 34-7 win over Boise State last week, the Bulls took down No. 13 Florida 18-16 in The Swamp. They’re 2-0, and you can make the argument that there isn’t a team with a better 1-2 punch of wins than the Bulls right now. They’re certainly the only team to play two ranked teams and beat both to start the year.
And next week they get No. 5 Miami on the road!
After that, things get much simpler for the Bulls. Even if they lose to Miami next week, they’ll still control their destiny so long as they win the American and don’t lose in horrific fashion to a terrible team. And even if they do, if it’s Boise State who wins the Mountain West, the Broncos could be 11-1 to USF’s 10-2 and the committee would still respect the head-to-head win the Bulls had.
Conference USA has been eliminated
Did the league ever have a legitimate chance? Probably not without plenty of help, but it no longer matters. This weekend saw Liberty lose to Jacksonville State 34-24 and Western Kentucky get shellacked 45-21 by Toledo. We’re two weeks into the season and C-USA only has one undefeated team remaining, and it’s 2-0 New Mexico State.
I suppose it’s possible the Aggies could roll through the season undefeated, including a win over Tennessee in Knoxville, but, actually, who are we kidding? It’s not possible. C-USA’s playoff hopes are dead.
Illinois strikes first
Entering the season, it felt as if the Big Ten had a firm top three, and after seeing how Oregon has looked through two games, I’m not sure firm is a strong enough word. The most interesting race in the league is probably the race for fourth place and the potential at-large bid that comes with it.
I am not convinced the Big Ten will get four teams in, but it has helped its cause with a 5-3 record against Power Four opponents. Michigan had an excellent chance to solidify its status against Oklahoma but came up short.
For a while on Saturday afternoon in Durham, North Carolina, it looked like No.12 Illinois would, too. The Illini got off to an extremely sluggish start, as the run game couldn’t get traction and quarterback Luke Altmyer was harassed relentlessly by Duke’s pass rush. But Illinois did something good teams tend to do.
It weathered the storm and didn’t make mistakes. Instead, it capitalized on the mistakes of its opponent, and after taking a 14-13 lead into halftime, the Illini piled on in the second half, pulling away to win 45-19. This road game against a Duke team that’s won at least eight games in each of the last three seasons was an important test for the Illini.
It’s a team that came into 2025 with playoff hopes after winning 10 games last year, but it’s also a program that’s found it difficult to sustain success. Nobody would’ve been shocked if they’d lost this game. Instead, they not only won but did so emphatically.
The Illini have another tough road game awaiting in two weeks when they play Indiana, but this road win over Duke is the most impressive win by any Big Ten team outside the perceived Big Three so far.
Week 3 vibe shifters
A look ahead to the five games on next week’s slate most likely to impact the playoff race
No. 19 Texas A&M at No. 9 Notre Dame
No. 4 Georgia at No. 22 Tennessee
No. 13 Florida at No. 3 LSU
USF at No. 5 Miami
No. 8 Clemson at Georgia Tech
Fornelli’s CFP projection
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Miami
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Notre Dame
8. Florida State
9. Iowa State
10. Texas
11. Alabama
12. USF
The original projection has been changed and corrected by the author after he realized he skipped Alabama and put in Indiana by mistake. He supposes this is the kind of thing prone to happen when writing at 3 a.m. after watching football for 15 hours.
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