Mass changes across the CBS Sports bowl projections entering Week 6 include moving and shaking within the College Football Playoff, where the ACC and Big 12’s shot at multiple bids has significantly dwindled nearing midseason. Florida State’s stunning loss at Virginia and TCU falling from the ranks of the unbeaten at Arizona State means potential threats outside of the SEC and Big Ten have much to fix when the updated national rankings are dominated by both conferences.
For the first time this season, five SEC teams found a spot in the projected bracket this week, including a meteoric rise from Ole Miss following its victory over LSU and Alabama’s win at Georgia. The Rebels’ jump to No. 4 in the Associated Press Top 25 is the highest ranking in more than a decade at the program and best under Lane Kiffin.
Before diving into this week’s projections, nationally-ranked games that will impact the playoff picture in a few days include Vanderbilt-Alabama and Miami-Florida State, along with any unforeseen upsets within the top 25.
Projected College Football Playoff rankings
1. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
Projected final record: 13-0
The trip to Washington was supposed to be challenging for the Buckeyes, but Ohio State’s dominant defensive effort proved otherwise. Not only is this team blessed with elite talent across the board offensively, but Matt Patricia’s ability to put a stranglehold on opposing teams defensively this fall makes the Buckeyes the nation’s best after five weeks.
2. Miami (ACC champion)
Projected final record: 13-0
We’ll know more if Miami survives upset-minded Florida State in Week 6, but the Hurricanes look the part as a national title contender, especially at the line of scrimmage. A win this weekend would be Miami’s third over a nationally-ranked opponent. And the Hurricanes may not face another the rest of the way until an appearance in the ACC title game.
3. Ole Miss (SEC champion)
Projected final record: 12-1
At least for a week, we’re all in on the Rebels as a top-4 seed. Saturday’s win over LSU provided a glimpse into a team that plays together under the little engine that could — quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. He was precise on money down situations and Ole Miss showed an ability to run the football with power against a formidable unit. Many of us thought last season’s team was the one Lane Kiffin would direct to the program’s first playoff appearance, but this 2025 group is even better as a whole. The one loss for Ole Miss, I think, comes at Oklahoma or on the road against Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
4. Oregon
Projected final record: 12-1
At the end of the season, we might be looking at Oregon’s win over Penn State on the road as college football’s most significant this fall. It’s one of those quality victories that’s wrapped in a bow for the selection committee when it comes down to seeding. In this projection, the Ducks’ only loss comes to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
5. Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
Projected final record: 12-1
Unpredictability within the Big 12 is rampant through Week 5, but there’s still four unbeatens. Iowa State, BYU and Houston join the Red Raiders atop of the league standings and we’re going to see most of those play each other in the coming weeks. Texas Tech and Houston square off Saturday. Defending league champion Arizona State is 2-0 in the conference and has posted three consecutive wins since a stunning loss at Mississippi State. Don’t forget about Kenny Dillingham’s program.
6. Alabama
Projected final record: 11-2
The win at Georgia not only strengthens the Crimson Tide’s hopes of reaching the SEC Championship, but it’s going to be an important tiebreaker of sorts when the dust clears in late November after rivalry weekend. If Ty Simpson continues his red-hot play, this Alabama team is capable of winning out to face Ole Miss in Atlanta. If that happens, that would be six nationally-ranked wins this fall for Kalen DeBoer, regardless of what happens inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
7. Texas
Projected final record: 10-2
Should the Longhorns finish with 10 wins, Alabama would get the tiebreaker bid in the SEC title matchup over Texas under this scenario — Steve Sarkisian’s lone conference loss comes at Georgia on Nov. 15. The league would then move to common opponents and Alabama would hold that factor over the Longhorns. First things first — Arch Manning and this team have to avoid the upset at Florida this weekend ahead of the showdown with Oklahoma in two weeks.
8. Georgia
Projected final record: 10-2
Kirby Smart’s team will suffer another trip-up somewhere during conference play that will keep the Bulldogs from getting back to the conference title game, but they’ll be back in the playoff nonetheless. Defensively, Georgia has to improve. In back to back contests, the secondary has been gashed — much of that due to a lack of pass rush up front.
9. Penn State
Projected final record: 10-2
The Nittany Lions were supposed to beat Oregon as a home favorite in a White Out environment. It didn’t happen. That means the next three games are paramount prior to a clash at Ohio State on Nov. 1. If James Franklin extends his losing steak to the Buckeyes, the home bout with Indiana the following weekend is a must-win. A three-loss Penn State will not make the playoff this season. Ten wins is the magic number for the Nittany Lions.
10. Texas A&M
Projected final record: 10-2
Another 10-win SEC team that will be in the middle of a hodgepodge of elites, final month losses at Missouri and Texas will take the Aggies out of the conference championship picture. All hope would not be lost, however. Texas A&M’s early-season win over Notre Dame would be one of two victories over ranked competition and could be the determining factor in one of the committee’s final at-large seeds.
11. Indiana
Projected final record: 10-2
With only one win over a top 25 team after whipping Illinois by 50 points, Curt Cignetti’s program gets back to the playoff as long as it can avoid an upset loss the rest of the way. Unbeaten through five weeks, the Hoosiers will likely take losses at Oregon and Penn State. If they’re able to split those, higher-seed possibilities await.
12. South Florida (Group of Five champion)
Projected final record: 11-2
There’s a couple possible losses upcoming for the Bulls that could derail American title hopes like North Texas and Memphis on the road, but for not, USF’s the placeholder in the 12-spot as the projected Group of Five champion.
13. Tennessee
14. Notre Dame
15. Iowa State
16. Vanderbilt
17. Missouri
18. Georgia Tech
19. Oklahoma
20. LSU
21. Memphis
22. Florida State
23. Tulane
24. TCU
25. BYU
Projected first round playoff games
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Georgia
No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Texas
No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Alabama
No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Texas Tech
When there’s five potential SEC teams in the bracket, avoiding a first-round rematch might be unavoidable. In this scenario, it would be extremely unfortunate if the Aggies and Longhorns played each other again a couple weeks after battling during rivalry weekend. Last season’s matchup determined who played Georgia in the SEC Championship. The 2025 installment may have similar stakes.
LSU begins drifting away from bracket
There’s a chance the Tigers (4-1, 1-1) could lose each of their remaining four games in the SEC against top 20 competition this season if they don’t find a way to better protect quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and find some semblance of a rushing attack. The loss at Ole Miss revealed much of what we already knew about LSU — eventually, the offense was going to have to generate explosives since the defense had carried the team through the first quarter of the campaign. October showdowns with Vanderbilt and Oklahoma will determine if the Tigers have staying power in the playoff mix or if Brian Kelly’s season ends in a whimper.
