All aboard the John Mateer train at Oklahoma. The Sooners’ transfer quarterback was terrific in Saturday’s win over Michigan, a nonconference victory for Brent Venables that thrusted his team into the national spotlight this week as a playoff threat. One of a record-setting 11 SEC teams slotted inside the latest AP Top 25, Oklahoma has an early signature win with several impact matchups left to play.
“Having some success lends credibility to the process, how we practice, how we meet, and again, not have doubt,” Venables said via Sooners Illustrated. “Think the right way, and believe in yourself, believe in your opportunity, believe in your teammates, believe in how we practice, how we meet, all of those kinds of things.”
Oklahoma is joined in this week’s projection by Notre Dame, a team that lost its opener to Miami and is facing an all-important showdown Saturday against Texas A&M. The luster of last year’s trek to a national championship game appearance has worn off for the Fighting Irish, whose season could detonate if the Aggies come into South Bend and win.
Projected College Football Playoff rankings
Projected final record: 12-1 (Big Ten champion)
Will college football produce an unbeaten entering the playoff? Perhaps. And if there’s any team capable of getting there, it’s the Buckeyes. The Week 2 scrimmage against Grambling gave Jeremiah Smith and others a chance to stretch their legs a bit while strengthening Julian Sayin’s confidence as a first-year starter at quarterback. Ohio State’s loaded again, folks.
Projected final record: 12-1 (SEC champion)
If LSU can find a rushing attack, the Tigers should win the SEC. They’ve looked great defensively after adding a plethora of new pieces to punctuate Blake Baker’s attacking scheme, and Garrett Nussmeier is as talented as any at the quarterback position. Brian Kelly knows his roster could do big things this fall, but right now, the Tigers aren’t gaining enough ground in the run game to be particularly scary to a few others in the conference.
3. Miami
Projected final record: 12-1 (ACC champion)
As long as Carson Beck keeps it up, you’re looking at the ACC favorite by a sizable margin. With Clemson sputtering two weeks into the season, Florida State appears to be the only other threat to Miami’s conference title hopes. Those two play later this month with the victor gaining the upper hand in various ACC and playoff scenarios. Miami hosts USF this weekend, a game the Hurricanes need to focus on before worrying about the Seminoles.
Projected final record: 12-1 (Big Ten runner-up)
The Big Ten is setting up for two Penn State-Ohio State matchups this season if the Nittany Lions handle Oregon in a couple of weeks and then snap their long losing skid to the Buckeyes on Nov. 1. That would set up a potential No. 1 Penn State vs. Ohio State in Indianapolis with the winner getting the top seed in the playoff.
Projected final record: 11-2 (SEC runner-up)
The Bulldogs will have to show more offensively to warrant top-four billing or being designated with the “SEC champion” title in future playoff projections. Maybe Mike Bobo has kept things simple ahead of Saturday’s matchup at Tennessee, but the more likely reason for the lack of explosive plays so far is first-year starter Gunner Stockton, and his apparent reluctancy to look downfield. It looks like defense will be this team’s calling card again, but we’ll know more after this weekend.
6. Oregon
Projected final record: 11-1
For now, this is a placeholder position for the Ducks, who face off with Penn State in a couple of weeks that will surely alter these projected playoff rankings. That’s the only game Oregon will not be favored to win the rest of the way judging by Saturday’s statement against Oklahoma State. Dante Moore and true freshman Dakorien Moore are in midseason form together and it’s only Week 3 — a terrifying realization for the rest of the Big Ten.
Projected final record: 10-2
Arch Manning and this offense are a work in progress, and there are problems to fix if the Longhorns expect to be playoff-bound for the third consecutive season. Under this projection, the only other loss this fall comes to Florida or Georgia on the road. And depending on SEC tiebreaker rules, there’s a chance Steve Sarkisian’s team could finish with only one conference loss yet miss an appearance in the title game. A road loss by seven points to open at Ohio State should not deter the playoff selection committee’s opinion of Texas once the season’s over.
Projected final record: 12-1 (Big 12 champion)
We’re not going to have an unbeaten Big 12 champion this season. The league is simply too unpredictable from top to bottom to expect one squad to be head and shoulders above the others. Texas Tech’s trip to Utah next weekend could provide an early league championship game preview, but Iowa State, TCU and others will have a say in that. One team you can safely take out of the Big 12 race is Kansas State. The once-ranked Wildcats are lucky to be 1-2 right now.
9. Notre Dame
Projected final record: 11-1
Saturday’s showdown with Texas A&M has major playoff implications for Notre Dame, and it’s only Week 3. The Aggies are the only opponent currently left on the slate who’s ranked inside the top 25, meaning the opportunities to impress the selection committee could be slim in the coming months. An 0-2 start could capsize the season and would be very different than last year’s path when the Fighting Irish lost to NIU early and then ran the table to 11 wins.
10. Florida State
Projected final record: 11-2 (ACC runner-up)
Florida State fans, you’re rooting for Alabama to be a factor near the top of the SEC. That was a great win to open and changes the complexion of the season for Mike Norvell and his Seminoles. In this two-loss projection, we’re predicting a win over Miami later this month and a loss to Clemson later in the season. Then, the second loss would come to the Hurricanes in the anticipated rematch for a conference title.
Projected final record: 12-1 (American champion)
All USF needed to do was win two of its three games against nationally ranked teams in succession to begin the season to be in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five’s auto-playoff. Well, the Bulls have already managed that feat with another opportunity to go this weekend at Miami. What could get really interesting is USF beating the Hurricanes and running the table before losing to Tulane or another opponent in the American title game. That could present a scenario in which multiple Group of Five teams appear in the bracket. The intrigue!
12. Oklahoma
Projected final record: 9-3
You’re going to hear this anecdote ad nauseam moving forward this season: no three-loss, non-conference champion has ever appeared in the playoff. We think that’ll change in 2025 with the SEC’s fourth representative coming as a three-loss invite. Florida was in this spot last week, but the Gators are torched after losing to USF with a daunting schedule the rest of the way. Oklahoma jumps into the mix after beating Michigan, a non-league victory that should carry weight as the season progresses.
Glossing over this week’s updated bowl projections, we’ve replaced 11th-seeded South Carolina with Oklahoma and pushed new Group of Five favorite USF one spot up in the rankings. Coupled with the Sooners’ nonconference statement win over Michigan and the Gamecocks failing to impress as a 42.5-point favorite against South Carolina State, Brent Venables’ squad looks the part after Week 2. These two teams play on Oct. 18 in a pivotal showdown at Williams Brice Stadium in Columbia.
13. South Carolina
14. Illinois Fighting Illini
15. Tennessee
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. Ole Miss Rebels
19. Texas A&M
20. Utah
21. Alabama
22. Auburn Tigers
23. Michigan
24. Missouri Tigers
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Projected CFP first-round games
- No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 5 Georgia (winner plays No. 4 Penn State)
- No. 11 USF at No. 6 Oregon (winner plays No. 3 Miami)
- No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas (winner plays No. 2 LSU)
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Texas Tech (winner plays No. 1 Ohio State)
No repeats of regular-season matchups here, but Oklahoma-Georgia would pit a pair of SEC teams in Athens. These two bluebloods have only met once — that memorable Rose Bowl semifinal to end the 2017 season when time ran out on Baker Mayfield during an 54-48 overtime epic.
Other teams to watch
Tennessee, Illinois, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and a few others are unbeatens near the current top 12 with opportunities this month to alter projections with season-changing wins. The Vols host Georgia this weekend, while the Gamecocks try and win their 17th straight against Vanderbilt. Should South Carolina prevail and then beat Missouri on the road the following week, there’s a strong chance Shane Beamer’s squad is unbeaten going to LSU in October. That’s a rematch of last season’s shootout won by the Tigers that was marred by several questionable calls from officials late.
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